To understand the magnitude of the internal turmoil in Iran, one need only look closely at the delegations sent to the negotiations that have resumed. Leaders change all the time. What does this mean? It demonstrates that the power of the Revolutionary Guard over the regime is actually increasing. Galibaff, who chaired the last negotiating delegation in Pakistan, was forced to resign from his position on the negotiating team.
And while all this is happening, the United States’ firepower in the Middle East has reached record levels. As confirmed by the Central Command (CENT), a third aircraft carrier has officially arrived in the region.
Some of you may remember that just a few days ago we covered the news about the Revolutionary Guard putting the negotiators under house arrest. Among these names were the Speaker of Parliament and head of the negotiating team Galif, Iranian President Pezeshkian, and Iran’s Foreign Minister Araki. And guess what, it seems we have more information about these house arrest incidents.
Now we hear that the lead negotiator has been forced to resign from this position. It is important to clarify this issue here. He is also the president of the Iranian parliament and was not forced to resign from that position. However, in addition to this responsibility, he was also the de facto leader of one of the factions within Iran and, therefore, led the negotiations dealing directly with Vice President J. De Ban.
It appears that he has now been forced to resign from this position. Speculation suggests that the reason for this was probably his attempt to include the nuclear issue in talks with Washington when he was in Pakistan about two weeks ago, and for this reason the Revolutionary Guard and its commanders became enraged and forced him to resign.
Now there are some rumors about hardliners replacing him in this position. This person could be someone who criticized him very openly last time. That man’s name is Said Yalili. This name may sound familiar to some because when the Iranian civil war de facto erupted, we talked about this man when the Revolutionary Guard began to publicly argue with negotiators inside Iran.
This discussion came after Iran’s foreign minister told the public,
“The Strait of Hormus is now completely open.”
This happened just a few days ago, and right after this tweet, this statement, the Revolutionary Guard basically said,
“That idiot doesn’t control the strait. It’s the Revolutionary Guard that controls the Strait of Ormus.”
And guess what.
According to the Revolutionary Guard, the Strait of Hormus is not open. This is a topic that is blocked in the mainstream media and on some social networks. YouTube’s algorithm also considers this topic risky, but I don’t care. I will continue to tell you the facts with the most accurate data to help me overcome the algorithm barrier without using any click tricks. Let’s get back to our topic.
While all this was happening, a man named Said Jalil, who is on the side of the Revolutionary Guard, publicly stated,
“If the Supreme Leader supports the negotiators, he should come out and tell the public. Otherwise, the Revolutionary Guard soldiers will have to deal with these coup plotters.”
He called the negotiators coup plotters and addressed them by these names in front of the public. What’s interesting here is that the tweet in which he called everyone coup plotters was probably quickly deleted within an hour of being posted, but it seems that this message or this sentiment within Iran did not disappear.
There were many supporters of the Islamic regime who hated negotiations, and we saw them take to the streets. And then we heard the news about the negotiators being placed under house arrest. And now it seems that this man, who has been against the negotiations from the beginning, could be part of the negotiating team and could even be the leader of the negotiating team representing Iran.
So this is definitely not a good sign for future negotiations, but there is still some good news in this. It appears that we are receiving reports today that negotiations are slowly restarting. After a two-day pause, two days in which Iran was basically trying to figure out who really controls the country, it seems some people are flying to Pakistan right now as I record this.
And the purpose of this flight is probably to discuss what the next step will be. Now, before we move on to these updates, let me tell you about the situation regarding the supreme leader, because since this war began, he has not been seen or heard from. It is very likely that he was injured in the first attack that killed his father, Ali Yamenei.
But since then we know he is alive. We know that he was elected supreme leader by the people his father brought to power, and now it seems that nobody knows where he is. According to a new report from the New York Times, Moitava Yamenei’s injuries appear to be much more serious than previously reported. One of her legs was so badly injured that she has undergone surgery three times in just the last two months.
And despite these surgeries, it seems very, very likely that she will need a prosthesis. What’s interesting here is that his father also had a prosthetic arm. His royal arm was blown off in a bomb attack organized by opponents of the regime when Ali Khamenei was president of Iran. This incident occurred before he became supreme leader, and it seems that now his son will also have to deal with some kind of prosthesis for his leg.
The report also shares that her face and lips are severely burned, which could mean she will have difficulty speaking for the rest of her life and will likely need plastic surgery before appearing on camera. Speaking of cameras, at this time access to the supreme leader is also extremely restricted. Primarily only the medical team and, of course, his inner circle can see him.
There are many reasons for this, but the main one is that Iran doesn’t want other people to find out where they are holding him. To be more precise, Iran does not want Israeli sources to find out about this. From this report we know that the president of Iran, who is a trained surgeon and I believe a cardiovascular surgeon, is part of the medical team attending to the treatment of the supreme leader along with the country’s health minister.
No one outside this circle can visit the supreme leader wherever he is secluded. Now that we’re talking about this inner circle, it’s actually a very important position, or I suppose an important organization. And unfortunately, within this inner circle there are high-ranking commanders of the Revolutionary Guard who advise the supreme leader every day.
No one else who wants to talk to the supreme leader can even send him a text message or an email, because Iranians are very afraid that electronic media will be tracked. Therefore, if someone wants any information or advice or has any decision to make, they have to write a note by hand, give it to a messenger who will use a motorcycle to go to the supreme leader, and then the messenger will bring back a handwritten note with the supreme leader’s reply.
So Iran is basically operating as if it were in the 1800s. The report also says that the supreme leader is of sound mind, meaning he can make decisions despite being physically injured. Physically he can’t move much, but mentally he can still rule the country. However, despite this, he doesn’t actually make any decisions alone.
And here we return to the inner circle. It functions more like the chairman of a board of directors, and the inner circle are basically the board members, people who advise him, but at the end of the day everyone votes, and when they decide unanimously on any issue, the decision is made and sent to the people who are waiting for it.
So I guess now that negotiations have restarted, maybe the supreme leader is behind this, or maybe the negotiators have some red lines they can’t cross. In other words, even if the supreme leader has given the go-ahead for negotiations, he could be saying,
“Hey, don’t talk about the Strait of Hormuz or make any concessions related to uranium.”
Of course, we don’t know the exact details, I’m just speculating, but as negotiations progress, we’ll find out what Iran’s red lines are, and we can assume that those red lines come directly from the supreme leader.
Now let’s talk about the updates we have regarding the negotiations. It appears that the Iranian Foreign Minister is flying to Pakistan on Friday morning as I record this.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Arakchi is expected to arrive in Islamabad tonight with a small delegation.
This information comes from Pakistani and Iranian sources. Pakistani mediators are hoping for a second round of talks between the United States and Iran, but they are not sure when that will happen. In other words, this trip that the Iranian Foreign Minister is currently making does not include a meeting with the United States.
He will only meet with the Pakistanis and a couple of other countries that some of you will be surprised to see, because I was personally surprised when I saw it. Here is the direct statement from the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Arachi:
“We embark on our timely tour of Islamabad, Muscat and Moscow.”
Muscat is the capital of Oman. Oman was the mediating country before the war began. Oman has been on Iran’s side all this time, and that’s why the United States didn’t use them as mediators again, because I suppose Oman probably played a part in the collapse of the negotiations. However, it is interesting that he is now going to Oman and Russia. So let’s see why this might be.
Now, of course, he says publicly that this is only for reasonable reasons. We’re not going to talk about the United States. At least that’s the message he’s trying to convey by not mentioning the United States in this tweet. Of course, everyone can guess why he’s going to Pakistan.
Pakistan is mediating the ongoing negotiations, but Russia’s side is interesting. If we were to speculate, we could probably say that Russia is the main ally. And more importantly, in 2015, when the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was signed, that is, the nuclear agreement with Iran, Iran handed over its enriched uranium to Russia as part of the agreement.
So they got rid of this uranium and in getting rid of it they gave it to Russia, which already has enrichment capabilities. So it’s not a big problem that Russia is getting more enriched uranium. That’s why the Russia issue makes sense. It is not strictly necessary for me to go there to discuss uranium reserves.
It could be for another reason as well, but assuming Iran wants some kind of nuclear agreement, it makes sense for the Iranian foreign minister to go to Russia to sort out some logistics regarding what to do after the agreement is signed. Furthermore, it could also be to understand what kind of support Russia is willing to provide should the ceasefire collapse.
It could be because he wants to know if Russia would provide some kind of guarantee in the event of a long-term peace agreement, because like Ukraine, Iran will want some kind of guarantee from other superpowers or nuclear powers in the world. In this way, Iran can have some confidence that the war will not restart immediately after the peace agreement.
The last country, Oman, is somewhat interesting because before the war started, Oman was also part of the negotiations, but I doubt that’s the reason he’s going to Oman at this time. I don’t think the United States will accept Oman as a mediator again because of the things Oman has said in the past.
They have been very anti-American and pro-Iranian since the war began. They even went so far as to lie openly about what was being discussed in the negotiations. Oman’s foreign minister, who was involved in the pre-war negotiations, publicly stated that Iran had agreed to relinquish its nuclear stockpiles.
Therefore, it does not seem logical to him why the United States started this war when in reality this was not the case. The head of the UN nuclear agency, the IAEA, who was involved in the negotiations, stated very clearly,
“I was in that room, and Iran did not agree to give up its enriched uranium.”
Therefore, personally, it didn’t seem logical to me that Oman would fabricate things just to support Iran. But for this reason, I suppose it’s quite easy to assume that the United States wouldn’t want Oman to be a negotiator or mediator in these negotiations again.
However, another important point about Oman is that it shares borders with the Strait of Hormuz. They have some waterways that overlap with the strait. And in previous statements, Iran had told the public,
“We want joint control of the strait with Oman, because Oman is on the other side of the strait.”
On one side is Iran, on the other side are the borders of Oman.
So I guess Iran wants to create some kind of framework where it can gain control over the Strait of Hormuz. Again, it’s unlikely the international community will grant Iran sovereignty over the strait, but I think what Iran is really after is some kind of trade-off where they’ll say,
“If you give us X in the negotiations, or if you give us Y, we’re willing to give up our claim to the Strait of Hormuz.”
Maybe they want more sanctions relief, or maybe they want more money for reconstruction.
I’m not sure, but basically, they’re trying to strengthen their negotiating position. So, yes, the Iranian foreign minister is currently in the air, halfway to Pakistan, as I’m recording this. And while I was recording the previous section, breaking news came in from Axios saying that US officials Steve Whtof and special envoy Jaret Kushner are expected to travel to Pakistan in the next few days.
Now, even if they were to get on a plane immediately, it would take them 16 hours to get to Pakistan. So, I doubt they’ll be able to meet with the Iranian foreign minister while he’s there, because he’s unlikely to stay overnight. My guess is he’ll stay there for a few hours, talk to the mediators Pakistanis and will continue their journey.
But the fact that they are traveling to Pakistan may mean that the Iranian Foreign Minister has arrived with a message about when they want to hold future negotiations. Only time will tell what this information is, but there is probably some good news from both sides that negotiations are resuming. While all this was happening, the third aircraft carrier arrived in the Middle East.
This was confirmed by the US Central Command. For the first time since the Iraq War in 2003, there are aircraft carriers operating simultaneously in the Middle East, along with their embarked air wings: the USS Abraham Lincoln, the USS Gerald Rford, and the USS George Ubush. In total, this includes more than 200 aircraft and 15,000 sailors and marines.
Iran, for its part, will no longer use its ships to transport oil around the world. Instead, they want to use them as floating storage. They will fill and hold the oil that cannot be shipped due to the US blockade, likely keeping them in port or perhaps in the Persian Gulf. The reason for this, of course, as we discussed in previous videos, is that Iran doesn’t actually want to shut down its oil wells because doing so has long-term consequences.
If the equipment and infrastructure around the oil field are very old, it means it will be impossible to reopen the oil fields without investing billions in new equipment. Or let’s say they were able to reopen them; even then, they’ll lose roughly 5 to 10 percent of their drilling capacity due to the shutdown cycle.
And this means Iran wants to reach some kind of agreement long before its reservoirs are filled. There’s another reason why the blockade hurts so much. You see, the Revolutionary Guard relies on oil revenues to fund its activities—basically to pay the salaries of its soldiers, pay the members who run the checkpoints, and pay the basig members that the Revolutionary Guard uses as local militias.
If that oil money doesn’t return soon, the loyalty of its soldiers will begin to crumble. And this, especially after seeing what happened in January, is not something that Iran and the regime can afford. Now let’s talk about the protests that just took place. It seems that executions in Iran are still ongoing. Just this week, Iran executed a 24-year-old student who participated in the January protests.
Iran accused him of setting fire to a building, but he denied the charge, never received a fair trial, and was swiftly executed. In addition to this, they also executed a former employee of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran. This is the nuclear agency that manages Iran’s enrichment facilities. According to Iran, he was spying for Israel.
Again, he denied all charges, but never received a fair and free trial. Iran swiftly carries out every death sentence handed down by its judiciary without considering all the evidence. Now, to understand why Iran is behaving this way now, we need to look back and see how Iran got to where it is today.
