Iran is falling apart in front of our eyes and even regime officials know it. For decades, the Islamic Republic told the world that it would never beg for help. The regime built its entire identity around the doctrine of self-reliance, the resistance economy, and the proud claim that Iran would stand alone against the world if it had to.
That’s how the Islamic Republic maintained power despite all the sanctions and despite its own population hating the regime. Well, this war and the US blockade is now changing all of that. Just yesterday, the Iranian foreign minister ran away to Russia to beg for help from Vladimir Putin. The same Putin who can’t even protect his own refineries.
And Iran wants help from Russia to survive. Now, before we jump into this Russia Iranian meeting, let me show you what President Trump put out just this morning. Iran has informed us that they are in a state of collapse. They want us to open the state of Hermoose as soon as possible as they try to figure out their leadership position, which I believe they will be able to do.
Now, the state of collapse that Trump is referring to likely has to do with Iran’s economic situation and the US blockade that’s choking off Iran’s economic lifeline. For more than 2 weeks now, Iran has not been able to carry out trade like normal. There are no exports going out and there are no imports coming in.
In fact, we have new satellite data showing Iranian ports that are getting a bit too crowded because ships are not able to leave Iranian waters. There’s a blockade in the Gulf of Oman. That means ships can load up in Iranian ports. They can cross the straight of Hermoose, but they cannot get any further. And that’s why Gulf of Oman is getting a bit too crowded, especially in Iranian waters.
For the Iranian economy, this blockade is a double whammy. Meaning they are getting squeezed from both sides. First they don’t have any revenue coming in because they depended on exports and now exports are not going out but secondly they don’t have any imports coming. Lot of Iranian food depended on imports coming in from other countries and that is now not coming in and that’s why the economy is getting squeezed from both sides and the Iranian officials are truly scared.
Take a look at this new report. Iranian officials are now getting worried about protests restarting. In fact, just yesterday, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council held a meeting to address the growing concerns among security agencies over a possible resurgence of protest like the one that Iran saw in January. This meeting was convened following internal assessments and intelligence reports warning of a potential unrest in the coming days.
According to information presented, officials in Iran believe mounting economic hardship like rising prices, unemployment, damage to prochemical and steel industries could become the main trigger for renewed protest. Estimates shared during the meeting suggested that Iran’s economy may not be able to withstand more than 6 to 8 weeks of US naval blockade.
Now, this is where I do want to clarify. This estimate is from the Iranian point of view. So, it’s going to be a little bit more optimistic. And on top of that, this is talking about the economic situation in Iran, not the old storage that we have been talking about for last few days.
Now, I do have new numbers on the Iran and old storage and when they will run out. But before we get to that, let’s finish up this report. As some of you guys may remember, the US blockade began on April 13th. That means it’s been around for more than 2 weeks now, and Iran just cannot sustain this kind of shutdown of its economy.
But you see, this isn’t the only thing that’s hurting the Iran economy. Another major concern that was raised during this meeting was the near total shutdown of Iranian internet. According to Iranian security officials, so people who work for the regime, well, according to them, the internet shutdown has left around 20% of the workforce, especially people who work online basically unemployed.
They can’t do anything. And that means an additional 2 million people could lose their jobs in private sectors because of the unemployment that has been caused by the internet shutdown. Now, just a reminder for everyone who hasn’t been following. The Iranian internet has been shut down for more than two months now.
We have passed the 60 days mark. 99.9% of Iranians just cannot access the internet or connect with the rest of the world. That’s more than 90 million people. That alone tells you everything you need to know about who Iranian officials are truly scared of. The regime doesn’t want the Iranian public to connect with the world and connect with each other because they know protest will restart and they can’t afford a repeat of January.
The regime came days away from losing power and that’s exactly why they’re willing to sacrifice their economy. They’re willing to sacrifice everything to maintain their grip on power. Now coming back to the meeting that took place in Iran, the security agencies inside of Iran basically conclude that the public protest are inevitable.
They’re going to restart. The only uncertainty is the timing of when they will restart. They don’t know when it will happen. It could happen tomorrow. It could happen few months for tomorrow. And that’s the thing that worries them. That’s why regime officials are panicking and they’re trying to figure out any solution they can to get some kind of breathing room.
Now, yesterday we talked about how Iran sent a proposal to the United States that would reopen the Straight of Hermoose if the United States lifts its naval blockade. From the US point of view, this makes no sense. This war was started because of Iran’s nuclear ambitions and there’s not going to be a negotiation until Iran addresses that US has no interest in giving Iran a lifeline while it’s suffering.
Now Iran realizes that and that’s exactly why right after sending that proposal to the United States, the Iranian foreign minister actually ran away to Russia to beg for help from Putin.
On your screen, you can see the footage that was released by Russian state media when the Iranian foreign minister landed in St. Petersburg to meet with Putin. Now, we also have more footage that basically shows them meeting and talking with each other before they had a 2-hour closed doors meeting. Now, the funniest part actually took place before the meeting because Thran clarified going into this meeting saying that, “Hey, Iranian diplomats are not going to Russia to ask for charity.”
Now, I’m not sure what led them to clarify that, but in my opinion, it’s never a good thing when you have to start off a meeting saying, “Hey guys, we’re not here to beg. We are here to coordinate with you because you’re our partner.”
But nonetheless, from Iranian point of view, they don’t think Russia has been pulling its weight.
You see, when Putin launched his invasion of Ukraine, Iran helped Russia tremendously. They provided Russia with Sahed drones, ballistic missiles, and even sent Iranian engineers to Russia to build factories that now produce Sahed drones for Russia inside of Russian territory. Unfortunately, Russia has not been able to return that favor in Iran’s time of need.
Now, that’s not to say that Russia has not been helping Iran. They of course have been. We have already covered how Russian satellites used to go over US bases when the war was ongoing before the ceasefire. And literally days after that happens, Iran is able to target that US base or even target an apartment building. But Russian satellites are basically giving coordinates to Iran.
So Iran can program that into their drones and then we have a strike that does pretty substantial damage, you know. So Russia was helping Iran as much as they could. But as you guys may know, Putin is a little bit preoccupied in Ukraine. So he’s not been able to give the help that Iran desperately needs. So it will be interesting what happens, what comes out of this meeting.
As I said, there was a 2-hour closed doors meeting. So we don’t exactly know what was discussed. What was interesting is that the Russian security services head was part of this meeting. This is something we saw last year during the 12-day war when an Iranian delegation went to Russia to basically discuss the war, discuss bunch of stuff that we don’t know about because it happens behind closed doors.
But the fact that the security head was part of this meeting does mean that Iran did talk about what they’re going to do in case the war restarts. But then again, that could be me just speculating. We don’t exactly know, but we will find out if something happens in the future. You know, I try not to pay attention to what these people say, especially officials from like Russia, China, or Iran, I try to focus on what they do.
So, if Russia does do something in the future to help Iran will know exactly what was discussed in this meeting. As of right now, the statements that were put out by both sides after this meeting, well, it wasn’t that interesting. It didn’t really share any insights into what was really discussed, what was important, what was not. But, nonetheless, I’m sure we’ll figure that out in the future.
Now, another problem that Iran is dealing with is oil storage. Yesterday, Kepler released a report estimating exactly how long Iran has. Kepler is a global research firm that provides data to major oil companies. So, clearly important what they’re saying. And they estimate that Iran has enough unused storage to last maybe 12 days or maybe up to 22 days.
So, they don’t have an exact number because as you guys can guess, Iran is not being transparent about the storage they have. But nonetheless, based on all the stuff we know about Iran before this war started, Kepler predicts that they maybe have up to 22 days, and that’s being really optimistic. They also shared something interesting.
According to their research, they have not observed any tankers successfully evading the US blockade in the region around the Gulf of Oman. That means even if Iran is loading up tankers, they are not able to sail out to the customers. They’re getting stuck in the Persian Gulf or in the Gulf of Oman. And remember, this is where I want to clarify because there’s been a lot of misinformation that’s been going around.
The US blockade is only on tankers and ships that are going into Iranian ports or coming out of Iranian ports. It doesn’t matter what country the ship belongs to. And secondly, the blockade line is outside of the Gulf of Oman. It’s right on the border of the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. And that’s very important because we see a lot of reports basically saying, “Hey, an Iranian tanker just crossed the straight of Hermoose.”
But it does not make a difference because US is not really blockading the street of Hermoose. So it doesn’t matter. They can go to an Iranian port, load up on oil, cross the street of Hermoose, but then they are stuck in the Gulf of Oman. They’re not able to get out. And secondly, if a tanker is, let’s say, going to a Saudi port or Iraqi port or anything else, you know, any Gulf countries, well, that tanker is not being blockaded by the United States.
It’s free to go to wherever it wants. So, if a tanker like that gets out, that doesn’t mean the US blockade is not successful. Now, another way to see how effective the US blockade truly has been is satellite images. and more specifically focusing on how many ships that are basically cluttering up in the Gulf of Oman because they get oil from Iranian ports.
They cross the straight of Hermoose, but then they are stuck. They cannot go out. As you can see from the satellite image on your screen, it’s very hard to see, but if you can pause if you’re on a computer or on a bigger screen, you see some white dots in the water. This is the waters of Gulf of Oman.
Or those white dots are basically tankers just floating in the Gulf of Oman because the US Navy tells them, “Hey, if you try to vade the blockade, it’s not going to be good for you.” So, some of these tankers try it. They get a message from the US Navy on the radio and they just turn around. They just hang out in the Gulf of Oman until the blockade ends, which it has been going for roughly 2 weeks now, and it’s likely going to continue going until there’s a peace deal.
Now, talking about a peace deal, it seems Iranians are getting ready to provide the United States with another peace plan after the United States rejected the one they sent yesterday. Sources say Iran is expected to submit a revised peace proposal within days. Mediators in Pakistan expect an updated Iranian offer very soon.
The US rejected the earlier plan for delaying nuclear talks. The foreign minister is consulting with leadership in Thran, but communication with Iran’s top leadership is being described as difficult and slow. The process remains fluid and depends on Iran’s revised terms. Now, luckily, yesterday we had Secretary of State Marco Rubio give his first interview since the ceasefire began.
And in that interview, he talks about what issues are holding up a deal with Iran. So, let’s take a listen.
“What do you see as the main roadblock to an agreement with the Iranian government?”
“Well, other than the fact that the country is run by radical Shia clerics, that’s a pretty big impediment. The other is that they’re deeply fractured internally. And that I think that’s always been the case, but I think it’s far more pronounced now. The way best way to understand Iran is you have a political class. Now I think look I people talk about moderates and and hardliners. They’re all hardliners in Iran, but there are hardliners who understand they have to run a country and an economy and there are hardliners that are completely motivated by theology. The hardliners that are motivated by theology are not just the IRGC officials, but obviously the Supreme Leader and the council that surrounds him.”
“Do you believe that Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mustami is alive?”
“Well, we have indications that he is. Obviously, they claim that he is. We don’t have evidence that he’s not. But I think the unresolved questions here are does he have the same credibility as his father did. You know, we know that for many many years, at least I know that for many years there’s been internal debates in Iran about succession and whether it should be um you know, hereditary based. Should it be this that there are a lot that are resistant to that? Does he have the does he have the clerical credentials to actually act as supreme leader? Is he actually making the decisions or is there somebody standing in hisstead who’s basically controlling 90% of it and is the one actually making decisions on his behalf? We don’t know the answers to these questions.”
Now, this is where things get a little interesting, especially about the Supreme Leader. We are getting mixed messages out of Iran. As we covered a few days ago, we had an IRGC event in a major Iranian city where they put up the picture of the new Supreme Leader on this mural that’s celebrating everyone who has died in this war.
That was a bit confusing considering it was an IRGC event, but nonetheless, the official Iranian position is that the Supreme Leader is injured and still alive. Now, yesterday we actually got a little bit more information relating to that. And we actually got that information from Putin. Putin hinted during his meeting with the Iranian foreign minister that he received a message from Mustavah Ham, the new Supreme Leader who still hasn’t appeared in public.
“Convey to the Supreme Leader my appreciation for his message and best wishes for his good health.”
Now, I feel like this was a written message, not something like a call or a video call because why would Putin say convey my appreciation for his message and not say thank you for the call or something like that. Which again, if this was let’s say a letter or something, it does leave a lot of doubt about whether the Supreme Leader is alive or not.
Anyone could write a message and pretend that it’s from the Supreme Leader and we still haven’t seen our heart from it. Anyways, let’s go back to Rubio. He was also asked about the Iranian proposal that we covered yesterday where Iran said basically, hey, let’s talk about the straight of Hermus and the blockade right now and we’ll end the war and then talk about the nuclear stuff in the future.
Iranian officials were basically like the nuclear stuff, that’s not a big deal. Let’s talk about that after this blockade and all that. Well, here’s Rubio’s response. Take a listen. Reports do indicate Iran has offered to open the straits, but they want to delay conversations about their nuclear program. Would this be acceptable to the Trump administration?
“Well, again, I’m not going to speculate about the president’s decision-m on this matter. Suffice it to say that the nuclear question is the reason why we’re in this in the first place. If if Iran was just a radical country run by radical people, but you know, it’ still be problem. But they are revolutionary in essence. They seek to expand and export their revolution. Not just what they do in Iran. That’s why they’re with Hezbollah and Lebanon. That’s why they’ve supported Hamas. That’s why they’ve supported the militias in Iraq. They don’t just seek to dominate Iran. They seek to dominate the region. And and imagine that with a nuclear weapon. Look what they’ve done with the Straits. Great example. The Straits is basically the equivalent of an economic nuclear weapon that they’re trying to use against the world. And they’re bragging about it. They’re putting up billboards in Tyrron bragging about how they can hold 25% or 20% of the world’s energy hostage. Imagine if those same people had access to a nuclear weapon. They would hold the whole region hostage.”
Now, this is something we have covered on the channel, too. Imagine a country that’s willing to attack its own allies. Qatar was supposed to be an Iranian ally. Oman is most definitely an Iranian ally to this very day. But from an Islamic Republic point of view, that did not matter because they saw this war as an existential threat to their power and to their survival.
So they were willing to burn down the whole region just to survive. And that’s why they started attacking their allies. And they’re also attacking civilian tankers and civilian ships in international waters. Iran basically went on a terrorism rampage to survive because what they saw as an end of the regime.
Now imagine a regime like that having nuclear weapons. no one in the world would be safe. Now, moving on, Rubio was also asked about if Iran is actually serious about a deal or the leadership has gone completely insane. Take a listen to his answer.
“Do you believe the Iranians are serious about making a deal?”
“I think the Iranians are serious about getting themselves out of the mess that they’re in. They’re all the problems Iran had, they had riots a few months ago and these were economic riots. All the problems that Iran had before the start of this conflict are still in place and most of them are worse. And now they have half the missiles, none of the factories, and no navy.”
“If there is no deal, what comes next?”
“Well, again, that’s the president’s decision to make. I would start out by reminding everybody that the level of sanctions on Iran are extraordinary. The pressure on Iran is extraordinary, and I think more can be brought to bear. But I hope that in the aftermath of this conflict, the whole world’s eyes have been open to the threat Iran poses.”
Now, to understand why Iran is behaving the way it’s behaving right now, we have to go back and look at how Iran got to where it is today. That doesn’t just mean going back to 1979 when the Islamic Revolution took place. In fact, we have to go further back to when the Kger dynasty was ruling Iran in the 19th century and look at how the decisions the ruling class made back then still affects Iran to this very day. Well, guess what? That’s exactly what we’re doing in our multi-part podcast that just came out today.
So, if you’re someone who’s interested in the history of Iran and how we got to where we are today, definitely go check it out. You can watch it by clicking the links in the description or you can just watch it by clicking the end screen on your screen. Basically clicking the video that’s on your screen.
