“Putin entered 2026 with a plan for a great victory, but the collapse he expected on the front did not begin in Ukraine, but within the Russian army. The spring offensive stalled. The lines began to break, Russian logistics were attacked, the communications network collapsed, and for the first time in months Ukraine not only resisted, it began to recover its territory.”
“Now the most critical question of the war is this. Is this just a local counterattack or the beginning of the great disintegration of the Russian Front? In recent months, Ukraine has counterattacked. Not only did it halt the Russian offensive in key directions, but also, according to a growing number of sources, it actually recovered significant portions of territory after unprecedented victories.”
“At the same time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selensk’s far-reaching sanctions campaign—that is, long-range missile and drone attacks deep inside Russia—has intensified, and the damage they cause has also increased. Things are clearly heating up, especially behind the Russians’ backs, on the front lines and in the rear.”
“These are the latest developments and what they tell us about where the war is headed. Zelensky, in his usual evening speech on Friday, May 22, stated that Ukrainian positions on the front line have been significantly strengthened in recent months. In fact, Ukrainian positions are now stronger than in previous years.”
“Since the beginning of the year, some 590 km², 228 square miles of our territory have been liberated and brought back under control. The trend definitely does not favor the interests of the occupants. We continue to increase the rate of destruction of Russian personnel. He said that this, along with all kinds of sanctions, is forcing Russia to choose diplomacy.”
“Additionally, Bloomberg reported on Friday on a recently declassified US defense intelligence assessment that estimated the amount of territory recovered since February at around 154 square miles. A few days ago, the Institute for the Study of War, IUSBev, estimated the amount of territory recovered in April alone at approximately 44.8 square miles.”
“Taken together, these figures show that the recovery rate is increasing. The Economist’s war tracker confirmed Ukraine’s progress, reporting that small but significant advances have been made throughout 2026 to date, being the largest since 2023. This is fair, considering the scale of effort required for Ukraine to liberate all this territory currently occupied by Russia.”
“It is difficult to give an exact figure on the amount of this area. However, it is generally considered to be about one-fifth of Ukraine’s total territory, around 45,000 square miles. So 154 million in 5 months is a good start, but there is still a long way to go. Much of the difficulty in accurately mapping control areas lies in the fact that front lines change daily.”
“This is unavoidable given the scale of the operations being carried out along a combat line approximately 680 miles long. In 2025, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reported that 61,605 combat engagements were recorded throughout the year, averaging 169 battles per day. The most intense day of the year was November 28, when 311 combat engagements with the enemy were recorded.”
“The widespread use of drones also meant that tens of miles behind the most advanced positions on both sides were effectively transformed into killing zones where any kind of movement was potentially lethal. As a result, both sides have largely abandoned traditional offensives based on armored columns. Instead, both sides operate primarily with small groups of insurgent infantry who can often infiltrate miles behind enemy positions.”
“There they can dig trenches and defend these positions that are technically behind enemy lines, while the delivery of supplies and ammunition can be carried out by drones. In other words, although in many parts of the front overall control is in one side, the situation on the ground is actually much more murky.”
“It is not for nothing that these areas are called grey zones or areas covered by the fog of war. They are probably eager to know exactly where Ukraine has advanced, although the exact areas recovered by Ukraine are not precisely specified in these various reports, given the rapidly changing characteristics of the gray zone of the current front lines, trying to determine exact areas of control for any significant period of time is largely a fool’s task.”
“However, the IS Doco assessment identified several more broadly defined areas where progress was made. The Ukrainian Defense Forces liberated much of Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast as of November 2025. During the winter and spring of 2026 they recovered more than 154 square miles in southern Ukraine and since the end of April 2026 have retook several settlements in western Zapori Oblast.”
“As you can imagine, the Russians tell a completely different story. A month ago, on April 21, the Russian Chief of Staff, Valery Gerazim, stated that Russian forces would have taken control of 80 settlements and more than 1,000 square miles of Ukrainian territory by 2026. He claimed that in March and April alone, Russian forces had captured 34 settlements and approximately 270 square miles.”
“As for the details, Gerasimov stated that the captured territories included the last remaining settlements in the Luhansk Oblas strip, which is still under Ukrainian control, and geolocated images appeared to confirm this. He added that Russian troops are advancing on multiple fronts, establishing what he described as a security zone in the Ukrainian regions of Sumi and Arcov.”
“He stated that around 15 settlements were taken in these regions in March and that Wov Chansk, Cutory and Sibina in the Yarkov region were added in April. He also confirmed the capture of Khrushina and Pavlifka in the Donet Oblast and Boikoba, Lujibska and Veselianca in the Saporia Oblast, among other advances.”
“IS Rebby immediately denied these claims. They argued that his latest claims were not supported by open-source evidence, not even from pro-Russian military bloggers. They pointed out that even the most generous estimates from Russian sources suggest that Russian troops may have advanced or infiltrated no more than 276 square miles into Ukrainian territory since the beginning of the year, just over 40% of Gerüerasimov’s claims, and that some of these claims were questionable.”
“According to ISFkier’s own tally based on open-source data, Russian forces had advanced only 147 square miles and captured 13 settlements from January to April 21, 2026. They claimed that since March 1, Russian troops had taken only two settlements and had actually lost 23 square miles along the front. The Ivalovalobe also said that Gerasmov had exaggerated Russian achievements in several other sectors.”
“He stated that Russian forces had approached within 4.35 miles of Kramatorsk and 7.45 miles of Sloviansk. However, even the most optimistic Russian estimates place Russian troops at least 5.6 miles from Kramatorsk and 8.7 miles from Sloviansk. In any case, these ranges would still put both cities within range of drone attacks. And so it seems.”
“Together with the besieged city of Costiantinifka, these two cities form the last and best fortified axis of populated areas in the Donbas, which is still completely under Ukrainian control. Even so, ISW concludes that Gerasimov’s exaggerations are likely an attempt to mask the disappointing lack of progress shown by the Russian military in its spring/summer 2026 offensive.”
“In fact, as a result of successful Ukrainian counterattacks, IS Doga said that Russian forces had to scale back their operations in several sectors due to heavy losses. These attacks, combined with an unwavering defense, forced Russian troops to expend more resources simply to maintain the impression of constant advances along the front.”
“At the same time, they assess that increased losses and a slowdown in recruitment threaten Russia’s well-known tactic of sending repeated assault suns and infiltration groups into high-intensity, high-cost battles. But that was a month ago, and as we know, many things can change in just one month on the battlefields of Ukraine. Currently there is one region where military bloggers from both sides seem to agree that Ukraine is making serious progress: the west and south of Zaporizhzhia and the Russian-occupied lands just to the south. The main impetus of the Russian offensive in Zaporilla during the last year or so has been concentrated in the east, where the oblast borders the Dnipropetrovsk oblast and the Donetsk oblast. Having largely driven the Ukrainians out of the key cities of Julia and Pole, they have been trying to advance step by step towards the last major city in the southern part of the Oblast that is still firmly under Ukrainian control, Orighif.”
“However, the real prize in the Oblast is in the far west in Zaporilla. Here, in a stop-start campaign characterized by massive losses caused by a relentless massacre of Ukrainian drones, they finally managed to advance north along the M18 motorway. In the end they managed to capture parts of the city of Stebnirsk and approached Pavlifka.”
“Securing this area would provide a springboard for attacking Primosk, Malocater Nifkaa, and Beselianca. The last major settlements before the outskirts of the city. The Ukrainians first thwarted the offensive and are now forcefully repelling them. According to everyone, the Ukrainians have completely retook Stepnoirsk and are busy clearing the remaining pockets of resistance in Pavlifka.”
“Next, or rather further down as they head south, is Kamianske. If the Ukrainians manage to take Kamianske, it will open the way to the crucial city of Basilifkaa. Russian analysts are biting their nails at this possibility. Considered in conjunction with other developments in the area, they fear that this Ukrainian advance may be part of the preparation for a much more serious situation: the recapture of Enerjodar or Nirhodar, home to the Zaporilah nuclear power plant.”
“This nuclear plant is one of the most contested sites in Ukraine and has been a major obstacle in all attempts so far to forge a peace agreement to end the war. The Russians seized it during their initial invasion in 2022 and subsequently connected it to the Russian power grid, where it is a primary source of energy for the occupied territories.”
“Needless to say, Ukraine wants her back. For their part, it goes without saying that the Russians refuse. Several compromises have been proposed. Yes, if Ukraine ultimately fails to expel Russia from the occupied territories, the most promising option is an energy-sharing agreement, perhaps managed by a third party such as the United States.”
“Russian analysts now fear that the Ukrainian advance through Stepno Hirsk towards Basilifka is really aimed at clearing the way for an attack on Enerhodar, in order to retake the nuclear power plant from the east. They say that with this attack, Ukrainian forces would simultaneously cross the Dnieper River from the north, creating a two-front attack that would be difficult to contain.”
“However, this advance to the east of the city is not the only sign that something big might be brewing in the area. Russian analysts also point to the recent mandatory evacuation orders issued by Ukrainian authorities in the city of Nikopol and its surroundings. Located in that part of the Nipropetrovsk Oblast, west of Zaporila, as the residents affectionately call the Oblast capital, the Nicopol district is only 4 miles from the nuclear power plant, although on the opposite side of the Dnieper River.”
“On May 12, the regional military administration ordered that all 28 families with children in Novokifkaa, e Linka, near Maneets and Bischetara Sifka, near Marifka, along with the residents of one street in the village of Marinets and 100 streets in Nicopol, be evacuated within one month. Officially, this is done to save the population from the intensification of Russian artillery fire and bombing.”
“Unofficially, the evacuation would open a direct route for an attack against Enerhodar. At the same time, in recent weeks, Ukrainian forces have turned the critical M14 motorway south of Enner into a blockade. This is not just any highway. Known to Russians as the Novorosilla R280 highway. It runs from east to west and connects mainland Russia, Crimea, occupied Gerson and Mikoliv in the west and the front lines in the east.”
“It has been described as a lifeline for civilian and military movement and has served as a vital logistical corridor for Russian supplies, fuel, and command posts. But not anymore. As attested by the panicked Russian press, the route of life has become a route of death under the sustained and intensified attacks by Ukrainian drones and missiles in recent weeks.”
“Images released on May 21 show a growing graveyard of destroyed vehicles along the highway. Geotagged images released the following day also show Ukrainian forces attacking Russian trucks along the H20 highway between Mariupol and Donetsk. A nearby highway that Ukrainian forces have been significantly intercepting in recent weeks.”
“It has become so dangerous on the M14 that the head of the Russian-occupied Gershon region, Vladimir Saldo, was forced last week to issue a decree restricting the movement of freight vehicles on a section of the M14. This unprecedented move, with exceptions only for military and essential goods, is a direct acknowledgment that the highway has become too dangerous for regular transport.”
“Of course, these attacks disrupt Russian logistics and complicate supplies on the front lines and in Crimea in general. The M14 is the main land route connecting the peninsula with the occupied territories. However, if Ukraine is planning a surprise attack to retake the Khodar River, these attacks are taking place precisely in the area where Ukraine would like to thwart Russia’s attempts to bring in reinforcements.”
“Now, at this stage we must emphasize that all of this is pure speculation. There is very little from Ukraine to suggest that an offensive is being prepared in Enerjodar. On the other hand, this is exactly what one would expect from an imminent surprise offensive. Ukraine made the mistake of widely publicizing its intention to launch a major counter-offensive in 2023, giving the Russians time to eventually mount a successful defense.”
“However, they may have learned from their mistakes. An absolute silence preceded Ukraine’s next major offensive, the 2024 Kursk incursion, which took the Russians completely by surprise. So if there is going to be a surprise offensive in Enerjodar, the last place they’ll hear about it first will be from Selenski or his commander-in-chief, Alexandr Sirski.”
“It is also possible that the advance through Stepnirsk, the evacuation orders in Nicopol, and particularly the attacks on the M14 are simply elements of Ukraine’s broader and more effective strategies for 2026, as highlighted by the IISW. According to the institute, Ukrainian forces have significantly intensified their medium-range attacks and air interdiction on the battlefield in recent months, which has generated cascading effects on the battlefield and inhibited Russian advances.”
“These attacks have also provided the impetus for Ukraine’s advance on the ground. But there is another key component to these successes that also took the Russians completely by surprise. Disconnect them from Starling. The recently declassified US defense intelligence assessment we mentioned earlier identified this move as key to Ukraine’s progress in 2026.”
“Starling is at the heart of Ukrainian operations, both on the front lines and guiding their long-range attacks, but it is not available to the Russians. This has not prevented the Russians from accumulating thousands of illegal and smuggled Starlink terminals, becoming increasingly dependent on them. The system helped address long-standing communication deficiencies, enabling the coordination of troop movements, drone operations, and artillery targets.”
“But all of this came to an abrupt halt in February. Together with SpaceX, Elon Musk’s company that operates the network, Ukrainian teams introduced geographical restrictions that disabled unauthorized terminals operating in the combat zone. Avid followers of frontline reports noticed its impact on Russian operations almost immediately.”
“Now, US intelligence has confirmed it. The effect was exacerbated when the Russians shot themselves in the foot by restricting the use of the Telegram messaging app. The application had been widely used as an informal substitute for Starling in its own flawed communication systems. The restrictions on the application are extremely unpopular in Russia and have arguably caused more discontent among the Russian public about Putin’s state of the war than any other factor.”
“And if the general public is unhappy, they can imagine how this development has affected Russian soldiers on the front lines under constant pressure from Ukrainian drones. The combined loss of both Starlink connectivity and access to messaging platforms severely degraded coordination on the ground, leading directly to confusion between units and disruption of the chain of command.”
“For a while, social media was filled with Russian soldiers complaining about the loss of their starlings. One was filmed kicking his receiver, while another was using his as a table to eat at. Some asked the public for help, saying that in just one night they had completely regressed to the Stone Age. Ukraine seized the moment to exploit this chaos and advanced.”
“While acknowledging the role the Starling blackout played in Ukraine’s progress in 2026, Ukrainian officials question whether it is the sole reason for their successes.”
Disclaimer : This content may be created by AI for entertainment purposes. Any resemblance to real persons, events, or places is coincidental.
