In the 1960s, the American government attempted something that many considered almost inevitable: to overthrow Fidel Castro’s regime through a direct invasion. The most famous episode was the Bay of Pigs invasion in April 1961. A force of 100 Cuban exiles, trained and supported by the CIA, landed in southern Cuba with the objective of creating a beachhead, provoking an internal rebellion, and marching on Havana.
The plan failed humiliatingly in less than three days. The Cuban Air Force, although small, sank support ships. Castro’s troops and the militias reacted quickly. And the air support promised by the United States never arrived in sufficient force. The result was the capture or death of almost the entire invading brigade, composed of Cuban exiles.
This caused enormous international embarrassment for the then-president, John Kenneth, and definitively strengthened Castro’s hold on power. Since then, for over six decades, the United States has maintained a policy of constant pressure against Cuba, including an economic embargo initiated in 1960, covert sabotage operations, plots to assassinate Cuban leaders, and attempts at diplomatic isolation.
The explicit objective, according to an internal memorandum from 1960 by Undersecretary Lester Malori, was to weaken Cuba’s economic life in order to generate famine, despair, and the overthrow of the government. Despite all this sustained effort, the Cuban regime survived. No large-scale invasion was attempted again, and no destabilization strategy succeeded in causing the desired internal collapse.
Now in May 2026, there are signs that the pressure is entering a more aggressive phase. Two of the leading American experts on Coba, William Leo Grande and Peter Corn Blue, argue that the United States, under President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, is moving closer to direct military intervention, possibly with the goal of regime change.
There are a number of recent developments that together paint a worrying picture of escalation. On May 20, for example, former Cuban president and former defense minister Raul Castro was indicted in the United States for his alleged involvement in the downing of two civilian aircraft belonging to the Brothers to the Rescue organization in 1996.
The indictment was presented as a boon to the more hardline sectors of the Cuban-American community in Florida. Shortly afterward, CIA Director John Hatcliff traveled directly to the capital, Havana, and delivered a clear ultimatum to Cuban intelligence officials. “Time is running out for Cuba to meet American demands or suffer the consequences.”
Marco Rubi, for his part, has repeatedly stated publicly that Cuba needs to change its form of government and its leadership, something that Vana considers an unacceptable red line. In military terms, the aircraft carrier Nets arrived in the Caribbean on May 20th, the date of Cuban independence.
The South American command even published a video with the caption “Lethal, precise and ready,” ending with an aerial photograph of Cuba. There were also reports of increased American intelligence flights off the island. A leaked report to the American website Axius mentioned that Cuba had acquired around 300 military drones, supposedly capable of threatening the Guantanamo base, American ships, and even Key West in Florida.
Donald Trump himself commented on May 21st about the current moves against Cuba. “It looks like I’ll be the one doing it.”
The most direct parallel drawn by analysts is with the American operation in January that resulted in the capture of dictator Nicolás Maduro by special forces.
The current indictment of Raul Castro, even though he is retired and 95 years old, is seen as a sign that a similar or broader action could be being prepared. Rob also offered $100 million in humanitarian aid through the Catholic Church, while exclusively blaming Cuban leaders for the island’s current economic crisis.
Coba, for his part, denies any aggressive intent. The Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs, Carlos Fernandes de Ccio, stated that, like any country, Cuba has the right to defend itself against external aggression and that this is protected by international law and the UN Charter. The Cuban ambassador to the United States reported that, despite three in-person meetings, diplomatic talks have not progressed.
V insists that she is willing to negotiate everything, as long as it is on the basis of reciprocity and equality. Donald Trump adopted a campaign strategy, and now a government strategy, focused on protecting China and its borders. Before Donald Trump, Latin America was under strong Chinese influence, despite being over 9,000 km away, mainly through support for contested regimes involved in serious human rights violations and complicit in narcoterrorism.
Donald Trump’s true objective appeared to be to economically strangle Cuba, cutting off oil shipments from Venezuela, imposing secondary sanctions and tariffs to generate internal despair and eventually a rebellion or surrender, as he attempted with Iran and Venezuela. Given this scenario, the central question arises.
Could the United States successfully invade or militarily intervene in Cuba? From a purely conventional military standpoint, the United States possesses overwhelming superiority. The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Cuba have shrunk significantly in recent decades. According to a recent analysis by the Wall Street Journal, the Cuban troop force numbers between 40,000 and 45,000 soldiers, with aircraft largely inoperable due to lack of parts and maintenance, and naval vessels that are mostly non-functional.
The island no longer possesses the robust military force it had at the height of the Cold War. Even so, Kuba retains resilience that cannot be ignored. Its anti-aircraft defenses include Terrar S125 Petiora systems, which underwent modernization in 2025 with technical support from Belarus. Some of these systems were adapted for mobile platforms on T55 tank chassis, increasing survivability and flexibility.
There are also portable MPELS-type radar missiles and, according to American leaks, a growing force of military drones. These systems, even with their limitations, can inflict losses on American aircraft flying low or approaching too closely, forcing the United States to launch higher-altitude, long-range attacks, primarily with Toma missiles, making any air operation on coastal defenses more expensive and complicated.
Although the Cuban navy is obsolete and reduced in size, the country maintains a territorial defense doctrine that includes coastal artillery, fortified positions, and the ability to use drones and other asymmetrical means to threaten vessels approaching the coast. Any attempt at landing or nearby blockade would face additional risks.
A limited operation, such as an infiltration by special forces to capture leaders, might even be tactically successful, but it would be quite risky and less effective than the operation in Venezuela, given the Cuban power structure and the advanced age of Raul Castro, who no longer exercises day-to-day command, but would pressure President Miguel Diaz to adopt new directions in his policy with the opening of dialogue.
Historically, the United States has never been able to impose lasting regime change and has been in Cuba by force. But the capture of a Castro icon would reflect an immediate change in posture in the palace of the revolution in Havana.
