Iran’s Hormuz Bridge Is Gone! Hundreds of Tankers Stuck as the U.S. Shuts Down Hormuz Crossings
The Straight of Hormuz has now become Iran’s ship parking lot. No ship can enter or exit. And the IRGC, which has declared control over the straight, is seeing its own ships fleeing. Right now, 73 Iranian tankers carrying cargo worth over $13 billion are waiting in the Gulf. This situation was a disaster for the IRGC because these tankers were not just carrying oil. They were the lifeline transporting Hezbollah’s salaries, the Houthi’s ammunition, the blockade at Babel Mandeb, and the entirety of Iran’s regional power. As the tankers couldn’t pass, this lifeline was dried up, and the regime’s time was running out.
The IRGC was on the verge of losing both its proxy network and its authority within Iran. The IRGC tried every possible means to break this deadlock. However, the ingenious tactics of the F/A-18 pilots and the US’s surgical precision also ruined the IRGC’s final plans to establish a bridge head in the Straight of Hormuz. In fact, the Revolutionary Guards had made a series of moves to escape this disaster. And at first, they all seemed logical. Some even appeared to be on the verge of forcing the US to back down from the blockade. Prices would skyrocket and the US would be forced to the negotiating table. but it backfired. Not only did the US not back down, it tightened the blockade. At this point, the IRGC changed its strategy, intimidating Gulf countries might have left the US isolated.
In early May, the IRGC struck the UAE’s Fujera port with 15 ballistic and cruise missiles. The opposite happened. The UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait clung even more tightly to the blockade. As the regime grew desperate, it turned to riskier moves. On the night of May 7th, the IRGC fully activated its denial of sea doctrine. Kamicazi drones, cruise missiles, and armed assault boats were sent against three US destroyers. The gates of the underground missile cities in Kish were opened and red beetles were launched into the sea from tunnels in Bandar Abbas. The result was devastating but for the IRGC. The moment they opened their gates, Sentcom launched a counterattack.
Bandar Abbas, Qeshm, and Minab were struck one after another. The IRGC’s arsenal, buried underground for decades, was reduced to ashes on the very first night it was exposed. The remaining IRGC ships were pulled back to their ports in a disorganized manner. The force claiming to be the master of the strait was hiding along its own shores. The military route was closed, but the IRGC was not giving up. The Shadow Fleet was deployed. It drove massive tankers right into the US blockade line. If the US sank the tanker, an international crisis would erupt. If it let it pass, the blockade would collapse. The IRGC believed it had cornered the US into an impossible dilemma.
But the F/A-18 pilots found a third option. On May 8th, when an F/A-18 Super Hornet launched from the USS George H.W. Bush approached the two Iranian tankers Sea Star 3 and SEVDA, the pilot did not aim for the hull. It was the exhaust stack, the engine compartment’s exhaust outlet. A 500 lb laser-guided bomb locked onto the exhaust stack from 5,000 ft and the engine room collapsed. It didn’t sink, it stopped. In footage released by Sentcom, light smoke is seen rising from the Sea Star’s smoke stack before the impact, followed by a dark cloud of smoke. On the SEVDA, thick black smoke spreads immediately after the fireball. This was the third time. Previously, the destroyer’s 5-inch gun had disabled the engine room. And on another occasion, the rudder was blown up by a Vulcan cannon, a systematic doctrine: stop, don’t sink.
And this tactic crushed the IRGC’s latest plan. The entire strategy was built on the tankers sinking. If they sank, the oil would spill into the sea and global public opinion would turn against the US. But when the tanker stopped, the scenario collapsed. The ship remained in place. The crew was safe and the oil wasn’t spilling into the sea. There was no material left for the IRGC’s atrocity narrative. Every tanker that was stopped further exposed the IRGC’s helplessness to the world. It was a war of attrition with a predetermined outcome. Sentcom commander Admiral Cooper spoke clearly:
“US forces are determined to fully enforce the blockade. As of May 8th, more than 50 ships have been forced to turn back. 73 tankers cannot transport Iranian oil.”
The IRGC, which claimed the straight of Hormuz is our trump card, cannot even get its own tankers out of its own straight. And the IRGC has begun to hear the echoes of the war it lost abroad resonating within its own borders. Two different Irans are clashing in Tehran. The IRGC wants to maintain control over the strait at any cost. On the other side, Pezeshkian’s moderate faction wants to open the door to diplomacy and save the people’s daily lives. Every failed military move could further intensify this tension.
Fissures may have begun to form within the IRGC itself. Questions will be raised about who authorized the attack and why intelligence failed. While the media claims we struck three US ships, the command structure knows the truth. This contradiction carries the potential to undermine the organization’s image. And all this internal strife is unfolding precisely at a time when the Iranian people are suffering the most. The blockade has effectively cut off oil revenues and the impact on the streets is very real. Food prices are soaring. Essential medicines may be unavailable in hospitals and power outages are spreading. People may find themselves unable to meet their daily needs while watching the IRGC’s victory celebrations on TV.
This is the IRGC’s main fear. The protests and popular movements in January 2026 had already shaken the regime. As the blockade drags on, the risk that the anger over “we didn’t want this war” will turn directly against the regime is increasing day by day. The external reflection of internal pressure is visible in the proxy network. Hezbollah salaries may begin to be delayed. The Houthi’s blockade of Bab el-Mandeb may weaken and loyalty to Tehran among Iraqi militias may start to be questioned. To compensate for this, Tehran is seizing international ships. But these moves are pushing Iran further away from being a reliable actor. Defense analyst Shears speaks plainly:
“The IRGC is trying to project power, but the picture on the ground isn’t power. It’s pure chaos. The IRGC is trying to manage four fronts simultaneously: military warfare abroad, political warfare at home, public outrage in the streets, and a crumbling network of proxies in the region. And the only tool it has to respond to all four fronts, oil revenue, is stuck inside 73 tankers.”
The economic toll of this desperation is growing heavier by the hour. According to US Department of Defense estimates, between April 13th and May 1st, the blockade’s first 18 days, Iran lost $4.8 billion in oil revenue. Trump claims the blockade costs Iran $500 million per day. More than 40% of Iran’s exports are oil. The naval blockade targets Iran’s most critical revenue source, crude oil exports, directly. And before the April 8th ceasefire, the Israeli Air Force had also bombed Iranian naval installations in the Caspian Sea, seriously restricting Iran’s trade through that route as well.
Iran is not sitting idle either, but its retaliatory moves create new problems each time. Iran seized two international cargo ships, Liberia-flagged MSC Franchesca and Panama-flagged Epaminondas near Hormuz. But seizing international shipping companies’ vessels may only weaken Iran’s claim of being a reliable trade partner. Further, Iran’s parliament is drafting a law to ban enemy country ships from passing through the strait. And the IRGC is establishing a new body called the Persian Gulf Strait Authority to require all transits to have Iranian clearance and coordination. Ships would need to send an email to Iranian authorities disclosing their country of origin, cargo, and destination. This initiative directly contradicts international maritime law, but it demonstrates the IRGC’s will to establish de facto control over the strait. Defense analyst Alex Alfarz Shears assesses this move as an effort to establish control over the strait and project strategic power.
Iran may be using the straight as leverage to tip negotiations in its favor, but this leverage has a cost and Iran’s own economy is paying it. The blockade may be driving Iran not just toward revenue loss, but toward physical catastrophe. Approximately 90% of Iran’s oil exports flow through the terminal at Kharg Island. With the blockade effectively shutting this terminal, Iran cannot send oil out but continues extracting from its wells. Onshore storage capacity is full. Tankers at ports are being used as floating storage, but they too are filling up. And now satellite imagery reveals a disturbing picture. A massive oil slick covering approximately 71 km is spreading off Kharg Island.
Copernicus Sentinel satellite images show the slick grew from Wednesday to Friday. Conflict and Environment Observatory researcher Leon Mand says the slick is visually consistent with oil. Data Desk co-founder Lewis Goddard says it could be the largest spill since the start of the US-Israel war. Energy analysts note that Iran faces a dangerous dilemma. It cannot export oil, cannot find additional storage. It will either shut down wells, which causes long-term damage to oil fields, or dispose of excess crude through other means. The risk of shutting wells is particularly great. Some older well structures once closed take years to reopen and some may be permanently lost.
A notable detail: In mid-April, during a brief window when both Iran and the US claimed the straight was temporarily open, six passenger cruise ships trapped in the Gulf sailed through the straight into the Arabian Sea and resumed their commercial schedules elsewhere. This brief window showed just how quickly an open straight attracts commercial traffic, but that window has long since closed. Iraq’s situation also demonstrates the domino effect of the crisis Iran created. Following the strait’s closure, Iraq halted operations at the Rumaila oil field. Because with tankers unable to leave the straight, there was no storage space left. Iraq is one of the world’s significant oil market players and being forced to halt production shows the crisis has extended far beyond Iran’s borders.
Qatar energy minister Saad Sherida al-Kaabi warned openly:
“If the war continues, other Gulf energy producers may be forced to halt exports and declare force majeure. This will bring down world economies.”
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company CEO Sultan Al Jaber summarized the situation with a single number:
“More than 230 loaded oil tankers are waiting inside the Gulf.”
These ships are not Iran’s, nor do they carry Iranian oil. Gulf country’s own exports cannot leave as long as the straight remains closed. Iran’s “Hormuz is my leverage” strategy is holding not just itself but the entire region hostage. Insurance markets have also reacted. War zone premiums are now being applied to ships operating in Gulf waters. Some major shipping companies have completely halted Hormuz transit. A confidential CIA analysis delivered to policymakers this week draws an interesting picture. Iran is assessed to be able to withstand the blockade for at least 3 to 4 more months, but will face far more severe economic hardship at the end of that period. America’s strategy is clear: force Iran to the negotiating table through economic pressure. And each day of the blockade erodes Iran’s remaining leverage a little more.
The Hormuz crisis is not just Iran’s problem. Global energy markets are being shaken a little more each day. Before the war, 25% of the world’s seaborn oil and 20% of liquefied natural gas passed through this straight. Iran’s effective closure of the strait and America’s counter-blockade have created a dual blockade. Neither can Iranian oil get out, nor can the Gulf’s other producers ship freely. In the early days, tanker traffic dropped by 70%. And more than 150 ships anchored outside the straight to avoid risk. Oil prices surpassed the $100 barrier. Asian economies, particularly China, India, Japan, and South Korea, are under inflationary pressure. Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline could enter service as an alternative, but its 5 million barrel daily capacity cannot replace the 17 million barrel volume passing through the straight.
China is one of the most critical actors in this crisis. As the largest importer of Iranian oil, Beijing wants the strait to remain open more than anyone. And China continues to buy oil from Iran despite the blockade. But this is becoming increasingly dangerous. On May 8th, a Marshall Islands flag tanker with Chinese crew was attacked near the strait. China’s foreign ministry expressed its concern and confirmed no casualties. But this incident pushes Beijing into a difficult position. It is no longer just Iran’s customer, but risks becoming a party in the line of fire. Beijing has so far settled for dangerous provocation rhetoric and vetoed US resolutions at the UN alongside Russia. But as the energy crisis deepens, China may need to take more concrete steps: strengthening its mediation role, applying direct pressure on Iran, or establishing alternative supply routes. None of these options facing Beijing are easy.
Iran maintains access to Russia and Kazakhstan through the Caspian Sea, but this route can only cover a tiny fraction of oil exports and cannot replace maritime trade. Pakistan is also directly affected. Oil import dependent Islamabad requested alternative shipments from Saudi Arabia through the Red Sea port of Yanbu. Saudi Arabia rerouted at least one crude shipment bypassing the strait, but these alternative routes have limited capacity. Japan also feels the scale of the threat. 70% of Middle Eastern oil reaches Japan through Hormuz. A tanker that passed through the straight in mid-April arrived at South Korean shores with 1 million barrels of crude, but this may be among the last such shipments.
The UAE situation is also notable. Since the start of the war, Iran has launched a total of 551 ballistic missiles, 29 cruise missiles, and 2,263 drones at the UAE, figures confirmed by the UAE Ministry of Defense. On May 8th, two more ballistic missiles and three drones were fired, injuring three people. The UAE is no longer just an energy exporter. It has become a direct war target. The ceasefire in place since April 8th is still officially valid, but it is being tested a little more on the ground each day. America’s 14-point proposal on the table covers both the blockade and the ceasefire: mutual lifting of Iran’s Hormuz blockade and America’s blockade of Iranian ports within 30 days, followed by transition to permanent ceasefire talks. But behind this proposal stand America’s nuclear demands: dismantlement of underground facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, removal of enriched uranium, and snap inspections.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said during his Italy visit:
“We’re waiting for Iran’s response. Hopefully, it will be something that opens the door to a serious negotiation process.”
Russia’s stance may constitute the most ironic dimension of this equation. While Moscow supports Iran with hegemonic blockade rhetoric and blocks the US with UN vetoes, it is openly benefiting from the energy price surge in its own Asian exports. As long as oil remains above $100, Russia’s revenue grows, meaning Iran’s pain may continue to be Moscow’s profit. This situation may raise questions about the true intentions of Iran’s allies, but Iran’s response has been harsh so far. Iran’s military command warned that if US ships target Iranian vessels once more, they will face decisive force.
The Iranian Navy seized a tanker named Ocean Koi in the Gulf of Oman. According to Tanker Trackers, the ship’s real name is Jin Lee and has been renamed since 2025. Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority Initiative, a new regulation requiring ships passing through the strait to email Iran disclosing their origin, cargo, and destination, demonstrates the IRGC’s claim to unilateral sovereignty over the strait. Analyst Shears reads this as Iran’s effort to project strategic and political power, exactly the kind of move the IRGC would make to tip the balance in its favor if the US refuses to compromise in negotiations.
The May 7th to 8th clash, the IRGC’s attack on three US destroyers and Sentcom strikes on Bandar Abbas and Qeshm showed once more how fragile the ceasefire is. While Trump says the ceasefire is still valid, Iran accuses the US of being the violator. The only thing both sides agree on: this situation is not sustainable. The CIA’s analysis projects a 3 to 4-month endurance window, but within that time, Iran’s options narrow each day. If it shuts down wells, it causes permanent damage to oil fields. Some wells once closed take years to reopen. If it dumps oil into the sea—and Kharg Island satellite imagery may point to this—it creates an environmental catastrophe across the Gulf and hardens international reaction further. If it attempts smuggling through its shadow fleet, the US disables tankers with F/A-18s the moment it detects them.
And the blockade has another dimension beyond Iran. As long as the US maintains its blockade, Iran continues keeping the straight closed, which hits the Gulf’s other producers. More than 230 loaded tankers are trapped in the Gulf. Iraq was forced to halt production. Qatar issued a force majeure warning. Iran’s “Hormuz is my leverage” strategy is sinking its own economy while dragging its neighbors down and this is increasingly isolating Iran in the region. Ultimately, a neither-war-nor-peace situation exists where neither side wants full-scale war, but both want to clarify their red lines, and each day of this uncertainty costs Iran’s economy $500 million.
Hormuz has turned into a parking lot. 73 Iranian tankers cannot move. $13 billion worth of oil is stuck in the middle of the sea. US fighter jets are dropping bombs on the smoke stacks of tankers trying to break the blockade and a massive oil slick is spreading off Iran’s main oil terminal. For years, Iran believed “Hormuz is our leverage.” Now that leverage is suffocating Iran’s own economy. It wanted to force the US to back down by keeping the straight closed. But the blockade is isolating Iran a little more each day, angering its neighbors a little more and narrowing its options a little more. The CIA’s estimate is 3 to 4 months. But whether Iran’s wells, storage, and patience will last that long, only time will tell.
