“In the Middle East, there are moments when history is not written in conference rooms, but in bunkers, in sea straits, and on a war table, ready to explode at any second.”
“Trump sets a red line for Iran. The deal will be big and meaningful or there will be no deal. This is according to Trump.”
“The tension with Iran has not disappeared; it has simply moved from the battlefield to the negotiating table. It is possible that in another 24 hours we will be talking about an agreement and it is possible that we will be talking about renewed attacks. What is certain is that the war is still not over.”
“Iran makes it clear the deal with the United States is still far away. Tehran announced that progress has been made on a large part of the issues with Washington but emphasized that an agreement is not close.”
“At the same time, oil prices drop following the renewed optimism. Iran first wants guarantees frozen money to be returned and the removal of sanctions. The United States first wants enriched uranium, the nuclear issue and supervision.”
“And Trump, he’s cooling the enthusiasm and telling his representatives, ‘Do not rush into a deal.'”
“Here in Israel, we are looking at this with a great concern. Will the agreement truly stop the nuclear program, the missiles, and the proxies, or will it only give Iran 60 days to breathe, organize, and rearm? So, are the United States and Iran really getting closer to understanding that could end this regional war? The issues of the nuclear program, the straight of Hormuz, the frozen funds, Lebanon, these are all still issues that are not agreed yet. So, what do we know about the emerging agreement? We will get into all the details very soon, but right now the question is this. Are we on the way to a smart agreement that weakens Iran or to a ceasefire that saves it at the last moment?”
“I’m Yael Pinto. With me is Mati Shashani and we are boots on the ground and we bring you the whole truth about what’s happening in Israel and also the whole truth about what is happening in our neighborhood, the Middle East.”
“And today, today is May 25th, and we will already bring you everything you need to know about this region because until a few days ago, almost everyone was betting that the war was about to return. Everyone was betting on that. In Israel, the military was on a high alert, and across the entire region, there was a feeling that the next round was already just around the corner.”
“And then suddenly, instead of an attack, reports arrive about the United States and Iran getting closer. But in the Middle East, when everyone suddenly starts talking about an agreement, we need to ask what’s really behind it. One explanation is the calendar. Trump probably did not want to open a major attack during the Hajj, the pilgrimage to Mecca, Muslim high holiday, when more than a million and a half Muslims are in Saudi Arabia.”
“According to the reports, Saudi Arabia demanded that the war not be renewed during this time in order not to leave pilgrims stuck inside the kingdom during a regional time of fire. In other words, it is possible that part of that what looks like a diplomatic breakthrough is also an attempt to buy time calm the ground and avoid blowing up the region at its most sensitive moment.”
“That is why it is important to remember that behind the scenes, the American military is still ready to launch an attack at any moment. And at the same time, behind the scenes, an accelerated mediation effort was on its way. A Pakistani delegation led by the chief of staff, Asim Munir, arrived in Tehran.”
“And for the first time since the beginning of the war, an official Qatari delegation also entered the picture. Iran defines Qatar as an assistant and not as a mediator. But its involvement itself is very important because Qatar can be part of the discussion about the frozen Iranian funds and perhaps serve as a bridge between the Iranian demands and the American pressure.”
“And this is the important point. Until now, Iran wanted to separate two issues. The straight of Hormuz on one side and the nuclear issue on the other. First, from its point of view, the war needs to stop. Guarantees need to be received. Frozen funds need to be released. Sanctions need to be removed. And only afterward should they talk about the nuclear issue.”
“The United States wanted exactly the opposite. First a nuclear issue, first the enriched uranium, first a ban on the enrichment on Iranian soil, and only afterwards the opening of Hormuz and also economic relief. So if the reports are true, the breakthrough is not necessarily a major peace agreement, but an agreement to talk about both things at the same time.”
“This is what is called a phased agreement, extending the ceasefire for an extra 60 days, gradually opening the strait to discussing economic relief and at the same time continuing talks on the nuclear issue. And that is exactly what worries us in Israel. Because if the agreement only lowers the price of oil, opens up Hormuz and gives Iran economic oxygen, but does not dismantle the nuclear program, does not limit the ballistic missiles, does not stop the drones, and does not cut the funding to Hamas, the Houthis, and the militias in Iraq, then this is not necessarily the end of the war. It could be a pause that allows Iran to reorganize.”
“Trump, on the other hand, may be trying to manage it differently, not to rush into a bad agreement, to keep the military and economic pressure on the table, to open Hormuz in order to calm the world and then force Iran to come to the nuclear table when it is weaker.”
“So the big question is not whether there is a headline about an agreement. The big question is what Iran is really being forced to give up. Because in the Middle East, agreements are not tested by smiles, statements, or leaks. They’re tested by the power that remains in the enemy’s hands the day after.”
“And in the moment, we will try to understand what’s really happening behind the scenes. Right now it is known that Khamenei is hiding deep deep very deep inside a bunker sitting alone afraid almost disconnected from the entire world. Iran’s leader is hiding in an unknown location and communicating with his surroundings only through messengers out of fear of assassinations similar to those that struck the Iranian leadership throughout this campaign.”
“American officials calm and they claim that the situation is delaying the contacts with the Trump administration because every message takes a very long time to arrive and sometimes it is no longer relevant by the time that it reaches the supreme leader. Just this morning, Tehran is threatening with a new weapon and declaring that they will force defeat on the enemies.”
“And at the press conference in Tehran, the spokesman of the Iranian Foreign Ministry cooled the enthusiasm over the progress in the contacts with the United States and warned that soon they will sue the American ships.”
“In addition, there is also a move here towards Israel in order to bring a Middle East of quiet. Trump called on the countries of the region to join the Abraham Accords.”
“President Donald Trump said in a conference call that he held with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain that he expects them to sign peace agreements with Israel and join the Abraham Accords after the deal with Iran. And this will significantly strengthen relations in this region.”
“But while everyone is talking about an agreement, something completely different is happening on the ground in Hormuz. They are no longer preparing for a signing ceremony. They are preparing for mine clearance. Hundreds of British sailors are waiting in Gibraltar for a mission to open the straight of Hormuz together with additional forces if and when an agreement is signed.”
“That means that the question is not only whether Iran will open the strait but what it left there. Mines, threats against ships, drones and small boats of the revolutionary guards which turned the world’s most important energy route into a military extortion tool. And that is exactly the story. Iran talks about diplomacy but continues to hold the world by the throat through the sea.”
“From Tehran’s point of view, Hormuz is not just a maritime passage. It is leverage. It is a weapon. It is a way to say to the Americans, to the Saudis, to the Emiratis, the Israelis, and the entire world, even if you attack us from the air, we can hurt you economically. And at the same time, Iran is also trying to bring Lebanon into the deal.”
“From its point of view, an agreement with the United States must also include restraining Israel against Hezbollah. But this is where the danger lies for us in Israel. If Hezbollah remains with drones, rockets, Radwan, commando, infrastructure and tunnels in southern Lebanon.”
“At the same time, Iran receives economic oxygen. And this is not a pause in this war. This is a pause that allows the axis of evil to reorganize, bring in weapons, find more money, and buy more time. And that is why Israel is looking at this agreement with extreme caution because a good agreement needs to take capabilities away from Iran.”
“A bad agreement only gives it breathing room again. And it turns out that Iran secretly bought technology through Abu Dhabi and used it to attack. Quds force personnel managed to purchase Chinese hardware for military use for a shell company based in Dubai. Tehran used the technology that it purchased in order to bomb the United Arab Emirates.”
“The Revolutionary Guards job opening trap, which is an Iranian espionage network, has been exposed. Cyber giant PaloAlto Networks reveals how the enemy’s elite unit managed to penetrate leading security aviation and communications companies in Israel, the United States, and the United Arab Emirates through fake job ads, Zoom meetings, and sophisticated technology that causes the computer to neutralize its own defenses.”
“The Iranians ran an unprecedented espionage operation. But in order to understand why Israel is so worried, we need to look at the war itself, not only at the negotiating table. In Lebanon, a ceasefire looks more and more like a nice name for a slow war. Just in the last 24 hours, an IDF soldier was terminated in southern Lebanon by Hezbollah explosive drone strike.”
“And another soldier was seriously wounded. This happened in the Bint Jbeil area, exactly in the space where Hezbollah is trying to prove that it is still capable of striking the IDF forces even after months of attacks, eliminations, and severe damage to its infrastructure. The IDF for its part continues to strike in southern Lebanon and in the Becca Valley and issues evacuation warnings to the communities, the villages in southern Lebanon where Hezbollah is trying to restore its infrastructure.”
“They hide weapons. They bring back firing and attack capabilities. And in other words, even if there are diplomatic contacts, there is no quiet on the ground. Hezbollah is not disarming, not truly withdrawing, and not stopping its efforts to rebuild the line of threat against the north. And this is exactly the Israeli fear that Iran will use the agreement to save Hezbollah as well, not only the nuclear program, not only the money, also its most important arm on Israel’s border.”
“And in Gaza, the story is different. But there too, the war is not really over. The IDF continues to operate against immediate Hamas threats and in the last 24 hours there were reports of destruction of weapons warehouses in the central Gaza strip area. Inside the warehouses were anti-tank missiles, RPGs, weapons, vests, and combat equipment.”
“Exactly the weaponry that Hamas is trying to preserve for the day after for the moment when it can once again attack the IDF forces or the Israeli communities. And at the same time, Israel is deepening its security hold along the yellow line inside Gaza and is trying to prevent Hamas from rebuilding military capabilities right under everyone’s nose.”
“In other words, in Gaza, too, there may be fewer headlines, but there is still a war. A war over weapons, warehouses, over tunnels, over areas of control, and over the question of whether Hamas has truly been weakened or is only waiting for the next opportunity. So when Iran demands money, guarantees, and a ceasefire on all fronts, Israel asks one simple question, who is dismantling whose weapons? Because if Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas remain armed, then the agreement does not end this war. It only changes its pace.”
“So I’m Yael Pinto with me is Mati Shosani and we are boots on the ground and we bring you the whole truth about what’s happening in Israel in this war against the revolutionary guards in Iran which is the head of the crumbling axis of evil in the Middle East.”
“And a second before we begin I want to call on you to keep spreading the truth. Share our content with as many people as possible. Click on the subscribe button. Most importantly don’t forget to look for me, Yael Pinto and for Mati Shashani on our social media platforms to get our view through our eyes of what it’s like to live in Israel, especially now in this war in the Middle East. So now we’ll go to our Middle East correspondent Mati Shashani.”
“Mati, are we at a moment of a real breakthrough or actually at the most dangerous moment when everyone is talking about an agreement but no one has really closed the details just yet?”
“Yeah, that’s a great question and everyone who’s feeling confused at home should feel vindicated because you have cause to feel concern.”
“We’re not really sure where this agreement is going or whether or not it actually exists. And I’ll really break down the fundamentals here. First of all, I want to be clear that this agreement that is being teased or being released, everything we know right now is based on assumptions that are well, they’re pulling from nonofficial sources.”
“Look at the quotes that are going out about what’s actually going to be included in this agreement. You have quotes that are coming from elements within the Iranian regime, and they’ll be like senior Iranian official or it’ll say someone senior American official and each one of them is releasing the information they want you to know and the bits of information the bits of the negotiation that they want you to perceive and we have a couple fundamental problems here. Let’s talk about the American side first of all. Trump and his team are not working towards an Obama style agreement; this isn’t the kind of agreement where it’s just some like long document with very like lax tax supervision uh that then becomes sort of the status quo. No, they’re working on something more short, more simplified, a memorandum of understanding between the US and the Iranians uh that is far more simplified and also has far more military pressure when it’s being created.”
“Two, and I need to say this, there is a very real element of a possible military attack on the table. It isn’t there for show. The US is not presenting itself as if it’s willing and able to carry out an attack in a way that is fake. It is completely realistic to see a real and substantial American attack in the very near eminent future. That is a possibility.”
“Now, let’s unpack the Iranians for just a second. The Iranian regime is speaking in multiple different voices, and it seems very clear at this point that there is no one faction that can actually decide or speak for others. At the end of last week, we interviewed an Israeli expert, Benny Sabti, who is from Iranian descent, speaks the language, and he said simply, he said, ‘How do you know that the Iranian regime has not already started falling apart? How do you not know that we’re not already past the point of no return?’ Let me explain to you what that means. Is it possible that the Iranian regime is already internally fighting over control in the day after the Supreme Leader or the day after this war? And the answer to that is yes. We don’t actually know who’s controlling Iran. It seems that there are factions within the IRGC. There are factions within the, let’s call it, the surroundings of Supreme Leader Khamenei who again we don’t know what his condition is, what his whereabouts are, and whether or not he’s communicating with the world and a bunch of other generals who each has his base of power. And because of that reality and because of the fact that we don’t necessarily know where this is going, we might be in a situation where there is and hear me out here where there is no one in Iran who can actually sign an agreement with the United States.”
“So what we’re looking at right now is a very different type of negotiation. It’s between an American regime that is willing to take action on a military level even without having an agreement. There is no burning agenda in the US side to immediately sign a deal in a way that existed in previous administrations.”
“And on the Iranian side, you have the flip side of that, a bizarre situation where elements and members of the Ayatollah regime are not necessarily speaking on behalf of the government and even if they are are not necessarily capable of actually carrying out an agreement that they would sign with the Americans.”
“And because of that, we’re in a situation where it seems like we’re moving quickly in the negotiation. But in reality, we’re not actually making much progress. And worse off, we actually might be nearing more and more to a point of implosion or point of explosion, depending on what perspective you’re looking at, where the Iranian regime implodes and that won’t be quiet. That will be carried out or accompanied by violent attacks against others in the region because that is the nature of dictatorships, or that the American government led by President Trump will choose to take military action against the Iranians. So this is very different than past negotiations, very different than what we’ve seen in previous generations of leadership.”
“And we are both advancing in the negotiation and at the same time in a incredibly volatile military position that might change everything almost overnight.”
“So Mati is the real test right now not the agreement itself but who will control the strait of Hormuz the day after the strait of Hormuz is this great example of one of the key points let’s call it one of the top three points for the Iranian regime in this agreement where between the Iranians and the US there’s a disagreement about the fundamentals of whatever agreement and whatever ceasefire will take place. So what are the Iranians saying? The Iranian regime is saying no the strait of Hormuz will open up after the ceasefire. And what does after means? It means 30 days. It means 60 days. It means that they want to hold on to levers of power to that financial chokehold that they have on the other Gulf states and on the movement of oil.”
“They want to continue holding on to it while the ceasefire agreement or the signed agreement is already in effect. From the American perspective, it’s the exact opposite. The American government is saying absolutely not. On day one, on minute one of this agreement, whatever it looks like being put into effect, the strait of Hormuz is open. Period.”
“Full stop. And when you look at that and understand that strait of Hormuz together with a nuclear, maybe the ballistic missiles are the key points of this agreement, whatever shape or form it takes ultimately. When you understand that they’re not even in agreement about that, well, what does that mean? It means one of two things: one or the negotiations are going to draw out for a very serious or very extended period of time and will not actually mature into a real agreement or two that only military action will be the further or the future course of action.”
“What does that mean? That means that even after someone declares, let’s say the president Trump White House declares that there is a ceasefire, even after that to be able to allow safe passage through the strait of Hormuz, they will require to see some kind of military or fire operation by the US to make sure that the strait remains open. So yes, the strait of Hormuz is a key point is a pivotal point of whether or not an agreement takes shape or whether or not it’s carried out. And it will also be the place where we can see whether or not the Iranian regime is able to actually commit into a ceasefire or able to commit to a long-term agreement or even a short-term agreement because as I said previously they are in a position where it’s incredibly possible that no one currently in the Iranian regime be it IRGC be it Ayatollas be it someone in the political echelons no single faction or actually a combination of factions might not be able to actually carry out an agreement. We’re not sure. We might be surprised on this topic, but that’s what things look like right now. The testing ground of whatever agreement happens will be in the Strait of Hormuz.”
“Iran could possibly say we sign an agreement and the very next day have the Strait of Hormuz see ships being shot up by rogue IRGC factions. That is a real possibility. How do I know that? Because it’s already happened multiple times in recent weeks where one faction or one voice in the Iranian regime says one thing and someone else in the Iranian regime says something contrary or acts exactly opposite to what was agreed.”
“So as you said Yael this is a very tricky situation where the strait of Hormuz will be one of the most important and quickest testing grounds of what happens in the future between the United States and Iran and if within 24 hours the deal with Iran gets stuck what do you think will be the first tactical step by Israel and the United States an attack on nuclear facilities a strike on Hormuz or the elimination of the revolutionary guards chain of command?”
“This is an important question. What happens if the negotiation fails? What happens in the moment that the US or Israel decide that now is the time to carry out a strike because things with Iran are not going anywhere? Let me tell you something. First of all, it is abundantly clear that an attack on Iran by the US is within the realm of possibility. It could happen now, could happen tomorrow, it could happen tonight.”
“It is completely possible that a substantial attack will happen. How do we know this? Because they’re all here. Every relevant force within the US arsenal is parked in the Middle East. Just I mean as ready as a military organization could be to carry out the attack. You have the carrier groups, you have the bombers, you have the logistical support, you have the radar systems, you have all the intelligence aircraft, you have all the manpower, all the weaponry. Everything that one would need to carry out this attack is already present, is already ready to carry out the attack.”
“Now, what would it look like? We could probably see a strike that combines both a military strike and a special forces operation probably targeting some key factors or key elements within a regime. I think they would be in two separate directions. One is the financial aspect or the economic damage and the other one is the nuclear let’s call it perspective. What would that look like? It would be an attack on the money-making apparatus of the Iranian regime. So, oil export facilities, oil ports, the ships or the facilities that store the oil or the refineries that are what makes it possible for them to move it out.”
“Something that hurts the Iranians, something that will hurt financially, something that will exert additional pressure on the Ayatollah regime. But it won’t end there. There will also be an additional substantial strike on Iranian military infrastructure specifically that which is related to the nuclear delivery program. Let me explain that.”
“That means both the enriched uranium and the mechanisms of which they would deliver it. Case in point, the ballistic missile program. So what would we see? Additional strikes on sites that are suspected as holding enriched uranium, additional strikes on ballistic missile depots and storage facilities, additional strikes on anyone within the IRGC leadership that could be able to or would be willing to carry out attacks or promote these programs in the future because whatever attack would happen, everyone knows that it’s a short-term event. It would be the prelude to a long-term agreement or a longer-term agreement. And because of that, it would be going after the substantial assets that will most hurt the Iranian regime. Again, the money-making mechanisms and the nuclear related mechanisms, the manpower, the technology, the manufacturing facilities that are tied into those two verticals of the Iranian regime will be what Israel and the United States go after.”
“And I want to say this, it only takes several days of operations to cause dramatic and long-lasting damage to the Ayatollah regime in a way that will be much more painful than what they’ve previously experienced. And let me explain that last sentence. The American forces in the region up till this moment have held off substantially from going after Iranian targets that will hurt them long term. We’ve hurt short-term targets. We’ve hurt IRGC related government facilities or infrastructure and the personnel related to them. But when it comes to actually harming or crippling the Iranian economy, that has not been done. I mean, we’ve left behind most of the oil infrastructure, most of the oil tankers, most of the wells that create and manufacture the money machine behind the Iranian regime.”
“That is still there. Not only that, there are many targets that remain that are related to the nuclear program. Not specifically that which is related to the enriched uranium, but the ballistic missiles, the storage facilities, some of the supply chain that’s related to them. There’s still a lot more damage that both Israel and the United States can do. If the green light goes on for an attack against Iran, this is very much within the realm of possibility. I go to bed every single night and in my head I think there’s a chance that I’m waking up in the middle of the night with sirens because an hour ago the US started a massive strike across Iran. That was a possibility last night. And let me tell you something, that’s a possibility tonight and the next night and the next night until there’s a substantial agreement.”
“That’s how tense it is. That’s how close we really are to a full-on military attack. And as I said, when it happens and if it happens, it will be dramatic. It will be costly for the Iranians and it will leave a lasting mark on both the economy of Iran and of course also on whatever is left of their nuclear program.”
“So, thank you very much, Mati. This really helped me understand better what we’re dealing with. And to all of you, keep spreading the truth. Share our content with as many people as possible. Click on the subscribe button. Look for Yael Pinto and for Mati Shashani on our social media platforms and know that the ceasefire has paused the recent violence in Israel with Iran.”
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“So thank you very much and let’s get back to the news because inside Iran while the world is talking about an agreement the revolutionary guards already working on the next war. They’re rebuilding ballistic missiles. They are pulling launchers out of tunnels. They’re operating procurement networks throughout the Gulf States and running a cyber campaign against Israel, against the United States, against the United Arab Emirates.”
“This is not the picture of a regime that is surrendering. This is the picture of a regime that talks about peace with one hand and with the other hand looks for a way to restore its strike capability. So the question today is simple. Is Iran really on its way to an agreement? Or is it using the window of diplomacy to rebuild the power it lost? Because behind all the headlines about a memorandum of understanding, a strait of Hormuz, the removal of sanctions and a ceasefire, there is a deeper drama.”
“Iran is trying to buy time. The United States is trying to extract concessions from it without reigniting the entire region. Israel is looking at the process from the outside and understands that if the agreement does not touch the nuclear program, the missiles and Iran’s proxies, then maybe we will get temporary quiet, but not a real solution.”
“The Iranians themselves are not hiding this. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei cooled the enthusiasm and said that the talks are focused on ending what he calls the American Israeli wall of aggression. He emphasized that no closed timetable has been set for signing and that no one can say that the agreement is really just around the corner.”
“In other words, from Tehran’s point of view, there are talks, there is pressure, there are drafts, but there is no surrender. But he also made clear the most important point from Israel’s perspective. The nuclear issue is not on the table at this stage. Iran is willing to talk about a framework about Hormuz, about ending the war, about removing the blockade, about removing sanctions, but it wants to push the nuclear issue to the next stage.”
“And in the Middle East, the next stage is sometimes the place where all the hard questions are buried. And at the same time, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio tried to project cautious optimism. He said there is something relatively solid on the table. Opening the straits, entering into real and time-limited negotiations on the nuclear issue and an attempt to give diplomacy every chance to succeed.”
“But he also said something no less important. Trump is not in a hurry and he will not make a bad deal. If diplomacy fails, the United States will examine alternatives. And this is exactly where Israel stops and asks, ‘What are the alternatives?’ Is it more economic pressure, another naval blockade, or a return to a broad strike against the missiles array, the production facilities, air defenses, and also infrastructure of the revolutionary guards? Because in Tehran, they heard that message, but instead of lowering their profile, they’re raising their tone. A senior Iranian official warned that the diplomatic equation will be step for step if the Americans want relief in the energy and the fuel prices. He says they will have to stop what Iran calls deception and pressure. The message is simple. Iran does not want to appear as if it is being dragged into an agreement out of weakness.”
“It wants to sell the agreement as a victory. And that is why the Iranian media are talking about the highest level of military readiness. A senior commander in the revolutionary guards declared that any aggression would be met with a decisive and destructive response on both the regional and the international.”
