“Thank you for that. A new CNN analysis shows Iran is quickly digging out its vast underground missile arsenal, which was buried by American and Israeli air strikes. These are recent satellite images of Iran’s missile bases taken after the start of the ceasefire with the US and Israel. Dump trucks and excavators digging through piles of rubble along the mountain side. But it’s what lies beneath the surface that makes this significant. A vast stockpile of missiles trapped by US bombs and likely intact, according to weapons experts, with satellite images showing Iran quickly regaining access to them, casting doubt on US President Donald Trump’s claims of having all but vanquished Iran’s formidable rocket arsenal.”
“Their ability to launch missiles and drones is dramatically curtailed, and their weapons, factories, and rocket launchers are being blown to pieces. Very few of them left.”
“CNN previously identified a pattern of US-Israeli strikes to put Iran’s missile complexes out of commission, not by destroying them, but by blocking the tunnel entrances leading in and out of them, leaving the rockets trapped inside and severely hampering Iran’s ability to wreak havoc on US allies in the region. But that was only a temporary solution. Iran is already undoing the effects of that strategy. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has acknowledged that Iran has been repairing the damage.”
“You are digging out your remaining launchers and missiles with no ability to replace them. You have no defense industry.”
“But the recovery is widespread and it is happening quickly. CNN looked at 69 tunnels across 18 underground missile bases. At least 50 of those access points appear to have been cleared and many others are being repaired. Take this base in western Iran. Just weeks ago, US-Israeli fighter jets destroyed all four entrances to the underground complex. But now, two of them appear wide open. The roads needed to wheel out its trapped rocket launchers repaved. And Iran is already in the process of clearing the remaining two. It’s also repaired some of the more than a dozen craters left behind by US-Israeli munitions. The craters indicate that a large amount of firepower was used to destroy just two tunnel entrances. And all Iran needs to reopen them, dump trucks and bulldozers. As Iran rallies around the missiles that survived the war, weapons experts say it will continue to come up with new ways to protect its arsenal from any renewed US-Israeli bombing.”
“America’s military is the most powerful in the world and has everything it needs to execute at the time and place of the president’s choosing. We have executed multiple successful operations against combatant commands while ensuring the US military possesses a deep arsenal of capabilities to protect our people and our interests.”
“Tonight, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth says the US is ready to start fighting again with Iran if no deal is reached. So Iran knows very, very clearly what our expectations are and that’s on the negotiating team to deliver. They’re coming in our direction. The talks have been productive. I think they know where it needs to go and I’m quite confident with this with our president who makes nothing but great deals that ultimately it’ll be something he’s proud to defend that ensures that Iran, which everyone knows should not have a nuclear weapon, never does.”
“Well, I think there must be confusion over what people think has been agreed or more likely in my view, Trump is dissatisfied with what he sees in the agreement. He’s worried that parts of it could come back to haunt him or be the subject of criticism, and they’re trying to figure a way out of it. I think this is the sort of indecision though that’s a gift to Iran. Every day that goes by that Iran isn’t being bombed, the regime can dig out, try and regroup and re-entrench its position. It would certainly like to be free of our blockade of their exports of oil, but fundamentally the regime is more interested right now in just basic regime survival, and this delay ultimately benefits the regime more than it benefits us or the people of Iran.”
“Well, I think they caused enormous destruction inside Iran. There’s no doubt about it. There appears to be from more recent intelligence analysis that there’s more that could be done. And I think that speaks to just how determined, really how fanatic this militaristic ideological regime really is. That they’re not spending money on the welfare of the Iranian people. They’re doing work to entrench themselves in power. So if there’s more to be done then I think that’s what we should focus on because otherwise if the regime holds on and eventually gets to export oil again, we’ll simply rebuild all the facilities we’ve destroyed and in some definable period of time we’ll be right back worrying about the nuclear weapons program, right back worried about their terrorist proxies around the region and around the world, and all the rest of it.”
“Well, I think we’ve probably done pretty significant destruction to what we know exists, but as I think we’ve all come to learn painfully, intelligence is not perfect. There may be sites that we’re not really aware of that were never attacked. We do know about this relatively new site called Pickax Mountain near Natanz that has not been bombed, and the perennial question, what part if any of the Iranian nuclear program is actually being done under a mountain in North Korea under contract between Iran and North Korea. So there remain a lot of uncertainties and I think the regime is drawing a conclusion: Trump is so averse to resuming military hostilities that time is on their side.”
“Well, I think the deterrence of the US, the Gulf Arabs as well, has been eliminated. And if Iran is able to withdraw from its efforts to close the strait purely by diplomatic means, there will be no new deterrent established. If we’re not willing to use force at this moment with the troops we’ve got concentrated in the region, all the forces, air, naval, and land, it’s hard to imagine what a better time would be to reopen it by force. And I think that if the president were willing to do that, which he doesn’t appear to be, that would go a long way to reestablishing deterrence after our forces have long since departed.”
“Well, I think it’s obviously another factor and just hanging around in the Gulf is not a good use of their resources if in fact they’re just there because the negotiations are dragging on. I think it was a mistake to give Iran a ceasefire to begin with. I think they were very badly damaged and they’ve been pulling themselves back together. And as I say, I think Trump has long wanted to find a way to declare victory and get out of this. He’s worried about the price of gasoline. I think the way to address that is open the Arab side of the strait. Get let get the oil from the Gulf Arab producing states out. We know that some tankers that have lifted Arab oil are coming out, they’re turning off their transponders. Wall Street Journal and others have reported this. I think if we went further and established that we could get ships out safely, I think the price of oil would drop fairly dramatically. People would look to the future and not think the strait’s going to be closed effectively forever.”
“I think they know where it needs to go and I’m quite confident with this with our president who makes nothing but great deals that ultimately it’ll be something he’s proud to defend that ensures that Iran, which everyone knows should not have a nuclear weapon, never does.”
“Well, I think we’re in the really last moments of these negotiations or what potentially could be the last moments of these negotiations. I think both parties acknowledge and admit, and I hear it from both US officials and the mediators and the Iranians themselves who are saying this to their own government-controlled media, that the parties are very close to a deal. And always in the last moments of negotiations each side is trying to get you know his final achievement, his final win, and I think this is where we are at the moment.”
“Well, it is an option obviously and I don’t think Trump is ruling it out. But at the moment, my impression from talking to people around the president is that the main thing that President Trump wants to solve in the immediate term is the issue of the Strait of Hormuz. And one of the things that the president’s been told including in the situation room meeting is that if he doesn’t take the deal and if now fighting resumes then it means a scenario of another 6 to 12 months of a closed strait, with all the implications for the global economy and for the US economy. And I think this is something that President Trump wants to solve, and I think this is one of his main considerations when he’s looking at this deal at the moment.”
“I would rather get a deal because we can open the strait immediately upon signing. The one guarantee that I have to have is that there will be no nuclear weapons. They’ve agreed to that, and it was very interesting. They said they originally said ‘we will not develop a nuclear weapon.’ I said ‘well what happens if you buy a nuclear weapon?’ So now it says ‘we will not develop or in any way purchase a military weapon.’ That’s a big difference. So we’re getting what we want slowly. Very tough negotiators. It takes a long time. I’m in no hurry. I’d like to say I’m in a hurry because you know gasoline prices are going to come tumbling down. But if you’re going to be in a hurry, you’re not going to make a good deal. And slowly but surely we’re getting I think what we want. And if we don’t get what we want, we’re going to end it a different way.”
“I think they know where it needs to go and I’m quite confident with this with our president who makes nothing but great deals that ultimately it’ll be something he’s proud to defend that ensures that Iran, which everyone knows should not have a nuclear weapon, never does.”
“The situation room meeting has concluded and lasted approximately 2 hours. President Trump will only make a deal that is good for America and satisfies his red lines. Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon.”
“The soldiers of the diplomatic battlefield have no trust in the words and promises of the enemy. What matters to us is tangible achievements that we must obtain in exchange for which we will fulfill our commitment.”
“They’re coming in our direction. The talks have been productive. I think they know where it needs to go. And I’m I’m quite confident with this with our president who makes nothing but great deals that ultimately it’ll be something he’s proud to defend that ensures that Iran, which everyone knows should not have a nuclear weapon, never does.”
“I’m not sure it’s up to the president only, Paul, and thanks for having me. Look, none of this should surprise. US-Iranian negotiations have two speeds, slow and slower. There’s profound mistrust on either side. You’re talking about a one or two page document which is essentially a ticket to have a negotiation on all the core issues and you’re going to get push back. You’re already seeing push back from Iranian harder line elements than the ones we’re negotiating, believe it or not. And Trump’s getting an enormous amount of blowback that basically he’s punted on the nuclear issue and what he’s going to have to show for the first several weeks if this agreement is signed. And I’ll take a flyer here: I think it is going to be reopening the straits which were open the day before the war started. So I think the combination of no trust, no confidence and negotiator pangs of buyer remorse, insecurity about whether the deal is the right one—are we going to get hammered in Tehran and Washington if we go forward with it?—all of this is combining to slow things down.”
“Quite a bit. In part for one fundamental reason, and the Iranian military can’t go toe-to-toe, head-to-head with the US military or even the Israelis. But the Iranians have two cards which we don’t. One is for the guys who are running this regime, brutal, repressive, authoritarian regime. This is an existential struggle. This is a matter of preserving their power and they are going to be reluctant to compromise on their core requirements for Trump. And frankly, I’m an American citizen. I’m a voter. Yeah, I’d like to see Iran without a weapon. But is this an existential question for me or for the vast majority of the American public? The answer is no. That’s one advantage. Second, did anybody show the president and the secretary of defense a map? The Iranians have weaponized geography. They’ve done something that most intelligence assessments that I saw when I was at State said they wouldn’t. People believe the Iranians would not close the straits because it would be economic suicide. And if they did, we would always have the option of opening them. Both of those judgments proved to be dead wrong. So, these two advantages give Iran, I think, an edge. We’ll wait and see what these negotiations produce, but they’re going to be very, very difficult.”
“No, it’s a really good point and I’ve made it repeatedly. You can’t do this through intermediaries. You can’t do this on a cell phone. You can’t do it with all due respect to Messrs. Witt and Kushner on the back of a cocktail napkin. You need negotiations with technical teams. Key to this, Paul, is going to be bringing in the International Atomic Energy Agency to monitor, to verify, snap inspections to ensure that the Iranians are signing up to and keeping whatever commitments they make. So, we’re not talking about weeks of negotiation here unless the president is looking for a short deal: open the straits, remove the blockade, and frankly punt the rest.”
“If there’s a chance of a deal and the president believes it’s one he can live with and the Iranians say to American negotiators ‘we need a comprehensive ceasefire in Lebanon,’ the Israelis have to cease their offensive military operations and we’ll make sure Hezbollah does. If that’s the deal that Trump has offered, the key to getting out of this, he’s going to call Netanyahu and he’s going to say, ‘Listen, you’re gonna stop your offensive operations in Lebanon, assuming this doesn’t fire on you.’ And Trump has enormous leverage, Paul, because the key fact of Benjamin Netanyahu’s life this year is not the West Bank, not Lebanon, not Iran. It is elections. And he in September, October maybe, he needs Donald Trump as an active campaigner, literally setting up a re-elect Benjamin Netanyahu office in Washington because if he doesn’t have Trump support, who’s more popular in Israel than he is, his vulnerabilities are going to increase exponentially.”
“I think they know where it needs to go and I’m quite confident with this with our president who makes nothing but great deals that ultimately it’ll be something he’s proud to defend that ensures that Iran, which everyone knows should not have a nuclear weapon, never does.”
