BRICS is falling apart in front of our eyes and it’s all happening because of the Iran war. Just this morning, a major BRICS summit concluded and you guys want to guess what came out of it? Nothing. Literally nothing. Because different members could not agree on whether they want to condemn Iran or they want to condemn the aggression against Iran.
Something like this has never happened before, ever in BRICS’s history. If we just go back to last year when the 12-day war took place, there was a unanimous statement coming out of BRICS condemning the war. But this year, the alliance is split. And it all has to do with the fact that Iran itself is shooting at other BRICS members.
How can you have an alliance built on helping each other when members are literally trying to kill each other? Here’s take a look at this report. The summit that ended this morning took place in India, in New Delhi to be more specific, and there were foreign ministers present at the summit from pretty much every BRICS country you can think of.
As you might have guessed already, the major topic of discussion was the Iran war. The Iranian foreign minister was pushing other members of the BRICS to put out a joint statement, a unanimous statement condemning the US-Israeli strikes against Iran. Iran figured this would not be a big deal because after all everyone thinks of BRICS as an anti-US anti-western alliance, but the Iranian foreign minister was in for a big shock because at this summit UAE, which is also a BRICS member, stood up and said that how about instead of condemning the US strikes we should condemn Iranians because they are the ones who are carrying out terrorist attacks against other Gulf countries and of course against civilian ships in the Strait of Hormuz. This is something Iran was not expecting at all. And because of this disagreement, the statement that India put out, India being the host country for the summit, basically said that:
“Hey guys, we can’t agree on anything. So what we’re going to do is not put out a unanimous statement at all.”
Here are the exact words:
“There were differing views among some members as regard to the situation in the Middle East region. BRICS members expressed their respective national positions and shared a range of perspectives.”
Now one thing to also point out here is that India in their statement or Iran in their statements never actually named UAE specifically. They never said that hey UAE was the country that was opposing us. But they gave us all the hints to basically let us know that it was the UAE. Listen to the angry statement that the Iranian foreign minister gave to the press after the summit and I feel like almost all of you guys will realize which country he’s talking about. Take a listen:
“Well, as a matter of fact, the final statement by BRICS ministerial meeting was blocked or some parts of that was blocked by a member state which has its own special relations with Israel and this is very unfortunate. We have no difficulty with that certain country. They have not been our target in the current war. We only hit American military bases and American military installations which are unfortunately in their soil. So the only reason they stopped the final statement was their support to Israel and the United States in their aggression against Iran which is very very unfortunate. I hope by the time that we come for the summit they come to a good understanding that Iran is a neighbor. We have to live with each other. We have lived for centuries and we have to live for centuries to come. Israelis cannot protect them. Americans cannot protect them. That was proved during this war. The American military bases, their relation with Israel became the source of insecurity. Instead of becoming the source of security, instead of protecting them, it was a source of insecurity for them. So these are the realities that they should understand and I’m sure if they follow the line of wisdom they will find Iran as a good neighbor and a good partner.”
Now Iran wants everyone to think that it’s just UAE that’s against Iran inside of the BRICS. But that’s not actually true. Just a few days ago when Iran attacked UAE again, India very strongly and very publicly condemned those attacks. And then just yesterday, India and UAE signed a very major strategic defense partnership framework. That’s probably not good news for Iran. It’s getting more and more isolated even in alliances that it believes to be anti-western and anti-US.
If you look at the list of members who are part of BRICS, this was bound to happen. The Iran war just sped up the process. Iran started shooting at other members of the alliance like the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain, which makes it easier for alliance members to basically hate on each other.
But if we just look at all the people that BRICS or all the countries that BRICS has admitted, you know, this was never going to be an alliance that was going to, you know, survive for a long time. Initially, it was meant to be an anti-western alliance that’s going to replace the dollar, maybe come up with a new system that’s not dependent on the dollar or SWIFT, which is a western payment sending service, but then slowly and slowly more and more members joined like the UAE, like Saudi Arabia, who are very close to western countries, very close to the United States. These countries are not going to go along with anything that’s anti-western because it hurts their position at the world stage. These Gulf countries have major defense partnerships with the United States and of course other countries in Europe. They’re not going to just, you know, weaken that partnership because of BRICS, which let’s be honest, hasn’t really produced anything that’s important outside of just putting out statements and showing a fake bill of some currency that they hoped would replace the dollar. That currency is still not out. But here’s the important part, guys. Just because BRICS is falling apart and members are, you know, fighting with each other, it doesn’t mean that YouTube videos about BRICS destroying the United States are going to stop anytime soon. They just work so well for people who make those videos that I’m sure those videos will continue to come out for a very very long time.
For Iran though, it’s not all good news. BRICS is falling apart and of course they are pissed about China and statements Xi Jinping made while President Trump was in Beijing. Take a look at this statement. You see that name Esmaeil Baghaei? Well, that’s an Iranian foreign minister spokesperson and this is a statement he put out after Xi Jinping said that China also wants the Strait of Hormuz open. The Iranian foreign minister spokesperson says:
“He who betrays in secret shall be exposed in public.”
Iran was clearly not happy about the US-China summit in Beijing and in my opinion the summit wasn’t as positive as some members of the media are making it out to be. But from the Iranian point of view, it was still negative enough for them to see China as betraying Iranian interests. And this is something you can also hear from President Trump when he talks about how the meeting went, what they discussed with President Xi. Take a listen:
“I mean, when you really think about it, if they have a problem with Iran,”
“Yeah.”
“and they need the strait more than we need it open,”
“they, we don’t need it.”
“We don’t need it at all.”
“We don’t need it at all.”
“Fair enough. So,”
“well, I mean, you could make the case, you know, like why are we even, we’re doing it to help Israel and to help Saudi Arabia and to help Qatar and UAE and, you know, Kuwait and other countries, Bahrain.”
“It also helps China.”
“We’re actually, I told him today, I said, you know, we’re helping you and we’re helping you in another way because I don’t think they want, I don’t think China wants Iran to have a nuclear weapon either. I said just don’t go crazy. You don’t need them having a nuclear weapon either.”
“What did he say? What did he say?”
“Well, he’s not going to respond to much. He’s a pretty cool guy. He’s not going to say, ‘Oh, gee, that’s a good point.'”
“I think he might.”
“What’s he going to do? What a wonderful point.”
“Do you think he agreed?”
“Yeah, I think I don’t think he wants him to have, no, he would like to see it end, but he’s been good about it, you know, hasn’t done anything hostile. They, they get a discount.”
Then on his way back, Trump also hinted that the war may restart with Iran because their negotiations that they’re sending, the peace proposals they’re sending, they’re just not good enough. Now, this is where it’s important to point out. US has given up some concessions, but when it comes to the nuclear side, the enrichment side of the conditions that the United States had before the war started, those have not changed. But on the other side of it, Iranian conditions have also not changed. They don’t want to give up enrichment. They don’t want to give up the nuclear-enriched uranium they have that’s buried underground. Those two Iran wants to continue for as long as possible. At least that’s what we can tell from the statements they’re making publicly. So this is what President Trump is saying. Take a listen:
“I know there’ll be a lot of questions around the China trip, but just first on Iran, have you rejected the latest proposal from or where does that stand?”
“I’ve looked at it and if I don’t like the first sentence, I just throw it away.”
“Yep. What was the first of an unacceptable sentence from them if they fully read out there and if they have any tier of any form I don’t read the rest too. 40 years is not enough for you, it’s got to be a poor dog. 20 years is enough but the level of guarantee that was a, it’s got to be a real 20 years, not a big ‘I’ll get all the fuel now and no more production.’ You have to get everything but we’re…”
Not even joking. I call it the nuclear dust. Came up with a term which seems so spot on. Not talking about is they would not bring the, they said that they can’t remove it because they don’t have the technology to, they don’t have trackers. They said the only one, they told me directly. They said:
“The only one that can remove it is China or the US. We’re the only ones with the weapon.”
They said you were right. You see it was complete and obliteration. With that being said, I want to get it. And they agreed to it. But then they took it back, but they’ll agree to it eventually.
From the Iranian point of view though, they do need some kind of deal and they need it very soon, and this has to do with the storage capacity that Iran has left and that capacity is getting filled up very quickly because of the US blockade that has been ongoing for more than a month now. So definitely something Iran needs to manage. They have already started decreasing the oil output they have. But there’s going to come a point in the future where they may have to stop all oil production altogether. And that’s not very good news for the future of the Iranian oil industry because it’s very hard to restart an oil pump or I guess an oil field. And it’s even harder when your equipment and your infrastructure is very very old. And this is something Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent just confirmed 2 days ago. He said that many experts believe roughly 80% of Iranian storage is already full and the rest is getting full very quickly. Take a listen:
“Today, President Trump arrived here in the UAE with commerce on the agenda. And now after a month-long blockade on Iran, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says it’s starting to feel the pain.”
“There have been no loadings in the past three days. We believe their storage is full. None, none of the ships are getting out. None are coming in. So, they’re not able to store oil on the water. So, they’re going to start shutting down.”
Here’s a satellite photo of Kharg Island, the hub responsible for 90% of Iran’s oil exports before the war. The storage tanks are currently 85% full according to experts, up 3% in recent days. Now, shipping guru TankerTrackers says, quote, “Kharg Island isn’t maxed out of storage space. If it were, they would grab the nearest available tankers and top them up.” Now, during the Beijing summit between President Trump and General Secretary Xi, about a dozen ships made it out of the Strait of Hormuz, including some from China. It also turned violent again. An Indian flagged livestock vessel was sunk off the coast of Oman. It’s not clear if there was any livestock aboard, Shannon. All 14 crew members were rescued. The attack on the Indian ship took place while India was hosting a BRICS economic summit. Another ship hijacked by Iranian commandos off the coast of UAE. This is exactly why the peace proposal that Iran sent to the United States says that US has to lift the US blockade if they want to restart the negotiations.
Iran is not looking to negotiate the nuclear program right now. They just want some sort of memorandum of understanding. Meaning they want an agreement that says how US and Iran are going to negotiate for the future and for Iran to sign that agreement. Iran basically wants the US to lift the blockade so they can continue trading their oil. They can continue shipping out the oil and get money for that. And in return, Iran is willing to open up the Strait of Hormuz because they believe that’s the only leverage they have. But unfortunately for Iran, that leverage is getting weaker by the day. Now, of course, this Strait of Hormuz is a geographical choke point. So, this is not something you’re going to replace overnight or maybe it’s something you cannot replace at all. But the dependence of the Gulf countries on this trade to ship out their oil, that’s definitely going to decrease because of what Iran has done during this war. And in fact, that’s something we are already seeing happen right now.
The UAE is now building a second oil pipeline that goes across the country and connects Emirati oil fields to a port that’s on the other side of the Strait of Hormuz. So Iran basically would not be able to attack the ships. Now UAE already has one pipeline that’s operating and once they have this new pipeline also operating they would be back to roughly 70% of pre-war levels when it comes to the export, the oil exports that they’re carrying out. Now, of course, this construction will take time. So, it’s not like this is something that’s going to happen overnight or even when this pipeline is up and running. It’s not going to replace the Strait of Hormuz 100%. But the dependence will go down a lot. And that means Iranian leverage will go down a lot. And of course, it’s not just the UAE that’s doing this.
Saudi Arabia is already using a pipeline that they have to ship their oil all the way across the country to the Red Sea. Iraq is talking with Turkey to build a pipeline across basically multiple countries to ship their oil through the pipeline, using pipelines all the way to Europe. So countries are already making moves to become less dependent on the Strait of Hormuz, which means Iran is seeing what’s happening and they want some kind of deal. They want it very quickly. Now to understand why Iran is behaving the way it’s behaving right now, we have to go back and look at how Iran got to where it is today. That doesn’t just mean going back to 1979 when the Islamic Revolution took place. In fact, we have to go further back to when the Qajar dynasty was ruling Iran in the 19th century and look at how the decisions the ruling class made back then still affects Iran to this very day. Well, guess what? That’s exactly what we’re doing in our multi-part podcast that just came out today. So, if you’re someone who’s interested in the history of Iran and how we got to where we are today, definitely go check it out. You can watch it by clicking the links in the description or you can just watch it by clicking the end screen on your screen. Basically clicking the video that’s on your screen.
