If you look closely at the maps, it becomes clear that the balance of power on Earth generally depends on narrow sea passages. The Strait of Hormus, which connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman, is the most critical artery, as it allows the passage of some 20 million barrels of oil per day and represents a fifth of the world’s energy trade.
And the Strait of Hormus has long been a powerful tool of blackmail for Teeran. Almost the entire world depends on this narrow passage. However, the Gulf countries now plan to build a canal that would completely bypass the Strait of Hormuz. A direct canal from the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman.
Look, the Musandam peninsula in the far north of Oman stretches out towards the Strait of Hormuz and the distance between them is surprisingly short, just a strip of land a few dozen kilometers wide. What would happen if that land were cut and a canal dug? Oil tankers leaving the Persian Gulf would head directly to the open sea without passing through Iranian territorial waters, completely avoiding the Strait of Hormus, a route that would render useless all of Iran’s threats of mines, speedboat attacks, coastal missiles and efforts to jam GPS signals, because the ships would no longer be within Iran’s reach. This idea had been on the table for decades, but the 2026 crisis forced it to be seriously considered for the first time, as Iran not only threatened, but effectively closed the strait and the world experienced its cost firsthand.
3,200 ships were stranded, the daily flow of 20 million barrels stopped, and energy imports from Asia were paralyzed. And all of this was caused by the closure of a single waterway that was only 21 miles wide. The route is as follows. The canal will begin at the narrowest point of the Musandam peninsula, along the Persian Gulf coast on the Ras Alqaimach side in the UAE.
It will cross the Alashar mountains and reach the Hasab Odiva region on the coast of the Gulf of Oman. The total length varies between 20 and 50 km depending on the route. However, these 20 to 50 km are not a flat desert. It requires traversing the sharp limestone peaks of the Alayar mountains, which rise to 2000 m. These mountains are composed of layers of ophiolite and limestone, compressed and folded by millions of years of tectonic activity, making them one of the geologically hardest types of rock in the world.
For modern supertankers, VLCCs over 300 m long and weighing 300,000 tons, a channel at least 25 m deep and between 200 and 300 m wide must be excavated. Millions of tons of rock must be blasted, cut, and extracted. The entire mountain range will have to be remodeled. However, the technical challenges of this megaproject become even more complex when combined with the massive scale of the modern shipping industry . First, the cost.
Many sources mention the figure of $100 billion, but this is an optimistic lower limit. Engineering analyses and calculations show that the realistic cost could range between $200 billion and $300 billion, since rock excavation at Musandam requires 40 to 60 times the labor force of the Panama Canal.
The Panama expansion project cost $5 billion. Musandam’s geology, depth requirements, and seismic risks multiply this figure. This construction process, fraught with enormous seismic risks, environmental impacts, and logistical challenges, is expected to go down in history as one of humanity’s most audacious operations against geography.
Advanced data models emphasize that such a dredging operation would irreversibly alter the ecosystem and natural rock structure of the region. However, the geopolitical benefits on the table carry such strategic weight that they overshadow this enormous engineering cost. Musandam is not the only option. A 950 km canal that would cross the RUP al Yali desert is being debated.
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It would begin on the southern coast of Saudi Arabia, cross the Rub’ al Shali desert, and reach the Gulf of Oman. There are no mountains, it’s flat land. From an engineering point of view , it is much more viable than Musandam. However, the distance of 950 km is immense. Water evaporation, the risk of sedimentation, and maintenance costs are astronomical.
A feasibility study backed by the Saudis in 2008 estimated the cost to be $200 billion . Along the route there are elevations of up to 700 m. The perception of a flat desert is misleading, and its proximity to the border with Yemen creates a separate security risk . However, Rub Ash Al Shali is one of the least populated regions in the world.
Land acquisition problems are minimal and the environmental impact is less than in Musandam. The canal project is a project for decades from now, but the Gulf countries are not standing idly by today either. Infrastructure projects are already underway that are beginning to neutralize the Iranian threat in Hormus.
The 48-hour ultimatum issued by the US president on March 26, to keep the strait open, triggered a deep sense of alarm. In regional capitals, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are putting the Cor Facan port in Sharha into operation, without even waiting for Trump’s 48-hour ultimatum. This natural deep-water harbor, with its sheltered location surrounded by the steep cliffs of the Alayar Mountains, opens onto the Gulf of Oman, completely outside the Strait of Hormuz.
It is operated by Gulfiner and has infrastructure capable of handling large oil tankers. The integration of the new pier and the pipeline has a cost of approximately between 200 and 500 million dollars. Compared to canal projects, it’s a drop in the ocean, but it ‘s the quickest short-term solution. However, the true potential of Jor Fakan and Fujaira is not limited to Saudi and Emirati oil alone.
Saudi Arabia had foreseen this situation 45 years ago. While the whole world was panicking about the closure of the Strait of Hormus, Saudi Arabia had an oil pipeline ready for use. A route that stretches for 100 km through the desert from Apqai, Saudi Arabia’s largest oil processing facility , to the port of Yambu on the Red Sea coast, avoiding the Strait of Hormuz.
and without touching the Persian Gulf at all. In the early 1980s, attacks on oil tankers during the Iran-Iraq War were devastating the Gulf. Ships were sunk, ports were bombed, and the oil trade was paralyzed. Nobody paid much attention, and in Riat someone quietly asked,
“What do we do if the Strait of Hormus closes?”
The answer was a twin pipeline 100 km long.
In 1981, Saudi Arabia quietly began building an oil pipeline, and 45 years later the day arrived when Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz. For decades, Iran has threatened to cut off the world’s oil supplies, and a project ingeniously designed and quietly executed decades ago is now closing the strait that has long been Iran’s biggest trump card.
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway just 21 miles wide that connects the Persian Gulf to the rest of the world. Each day approximately 21 million barrels of oil, which constitutes one-fifth of the world’s maritime trade, flow through this narrow passage. Oil and natural gas from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the IU, Qatar and AO Iran pass through this strait.
It is the lifeblood of the global economy, and Iran controls the northern coast of that lifeblood. The narrowest point of the strait, at 21 miles, is so close to the Iranian coast that a missile launched from the shore could hit any oil tanker in a matter of minutes. mines, speedboats, coastal defense batteries, kamikaze drones.
Iran’s arsenal of asymmetric weapons is specifically designed for this geography. Major naval powers may have the advantage in the open ocean, but in this narrow strait, geography plays to Iran’s advantage. For decades this has been Teeran’s strongest trump card.
“If we are attacked, we will close the Strait of Hormus and paralyze the global economy.”
This threat was the main reason why the West hesitated to intervene militarily in Iran, because everyone knew that if the Strait of Hormus was closed , oil prices would skyrocket, supply chains would collapse, and inflation would spiral out of control. Until February 2026, nobody wanted to take this risk.
On March 4, Iran played this card. The Revolutionary Guard declared the strait closed. They said that any ships that tried to pass would be set on fire, and they did what they said. Attacks on commercial ships began . By March 12, there had been 21 confirmed attacks and five crew members had lost their lives. Tanker traffic was reduced by 70% and more than 150 ships anchored outside the strait.
War risk insurance was cancelled. Brent crude jumped from $65 to $4. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), this month’s loss of global oil supply was 8 million barrels per day, making it the biggest energy disruption in history. And the scenario that Iran had threatened for 40 years finally came true.
Right in the middle of this chaos came Saudi Arabia’s Petrolin move, the east-west crude oil pipeline. His name is ordinary. Its impact is massive. Its construction began in 1981. Its capacity increased to 7 million barrels over the years. However, the pipeline never operated at full capacity. Before the crisis, it only transported 2.8 million barrels per day. Some called it an excessive investment. It seemed like an unnecessary insurance premium . On March 10, 2026, Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said,
“The pipeline is being brought up to its maximum capacity of 7 million barrels per day. Much of Saudi oil exports now flow through the Red Sea instead of the Strait of Hormuz.”
An investment considered unnecessary for 45 years became overnight a lifeline for the global economy. The pipeline, which carried 2.8 million barrels per day before the crisis, reached its maximum capacity in a matter of days, meaning that Aramco maintained the pipeline, its testing infrastructure, and its expansion capacity for years.
In other words, the Saudis didn’t just service the pipeline. They ensured that the pipeline could be activated at any time for 45 years, and Saudi Arabia is not alone. The UAE’s Habshan-Fujaira pipeline, which runs from the Abu Dhabi fields to the Gulf of Oman, also carries between 1.5 and 1.8 million additional barrels of oil per day.
This also bypasses the Strait of Hormuz. Together, the two pipelines provide an alternative capacity of 8.5 to 9 million barrels per day. This does not cover the entire 21 million barrels that pass through the Strait of Hormuz. But let’s put the numbers into perspective. Saudi Arabia’s daily exports are approximately 7 million barrels, and almost all of this is now independent of the Strait of Hormuz.
In other words, Saudi oil flowing to the world. This is a body of water barely 30 miles wide. Yet, by controlling these 30 miles, you can essentially hold the entire world hostage, and by closing it, you can instantly destroy the global energy system. Today, this bottleneck is closed and has become a massive shipyard.
According to Windworth’s March 13 report , around 400 ships are waiting just outside the Strait of Hormuz, in the Gulf of Oman. Tankers, LNG carriers, dry cargo ships, container ships lined up side by side . None can move. More than 200 ships have entered the Gulf. Through this strait, which saw more than 100 ships pass every day before the war, only 21 tankers have managed to pass since February 28.
On March 14, the number of transits dropped to zero, a first in history. Among these 600 ships are an estimated 200 to 270 vessels linked to China or carrying cargo to China. Why do we make this estimate? Because China is the largest customer and alone accounts for approximately 35% to 45% of all traffic passing through the strait.
According to Lloyd’s List data, the number of China-linked ships that were able to pass through the strait between March 1 and 15 was only 11. Most of these were dry cargo ships . The major Chinese tankers have not yet They are using the route; therefore, an average of 250 Chinese ships are currently stranded in the Strait of Hormuz.
The state-owned giant Costco has suspended all new bookings to the Middle East, and on March 12, shrapnel struck a Chinese ship attempting to pass after signaling that it belonged to a Chinese vessel. Iran couldn’t even protect the ship belonging to its own ally. It was at this point that China’s patience ran out.
On March 12, Moktaba Khamenei threatened,
“The Strait of Hormuz will remain closed. We will open new fronts.”
And this threat wasn’t just empty words. Iran launched missile and drone attacks against Baghdad, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. Mojtava’s strategy is clear: If I go down, I’ll take the region down with me.
Mutual destruction. However, this mentality crossed the red line of Iran’s biggest ally . China’s Foreign Ministry issued a stern warning to Iran and openly rejected the attacks in the Gulf. And he spoke by phone with Gulf leaders at the same time, effectively turning against Iran. At the UN Security Council, China refused to defend Iran.
It didn’t use its veto power but abstained. It left Iran high and dry. China does not agree with the attacks on Gulf countries and condemns all indiscriminate attacks against civilians and non-military targets. What did China do while Iran was being bombed? Nothing. The capital was attacked. Silence. The leader was assassinated.
Silence. The navy was sunk. Silence. It watched from the sidelines. barrier while its ally burned. But the moment Iranian missiles targeted the arteries through which China’s oil flows to the Gulf, Beijing’s unwavering friendship turned to betrayal overnight. To understand China’s anger toward Iran, we must first examine Beijing’s calculations.
The Strait of Hormus is the lifeline of China’s energy security and thus the guarantee of survival for its enormous industrial machine. Between 35% and 50% of China’s total crude oil supply passes through this 30-mile-long strait. To put this in perspective, 37.7% of all the oil passing through the strait belongs solely to China. It is by far the world’s largest customer for Hormus oil, far ahead of India and Japan.
But it’s not just about barrels; it’s about massive capital and strategic depth. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait. For China, the Gulf states represent not just oil, but also billions of dollars in investments and market opportunities. 42% of China’s crude oil imports come directly from these countries. Trade volume with the UAE alone has exceeded $90 billion .
China has enormous interests in these countries’ ports, autonomous systems, and telecommunications infrastructure . The Gulf is a key focus of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. In the UAE’s Port Khalifa, the Chinese company Costco has invested in a terminal. In Saudi Arabia, there is a technology partnership for the Neom project.
Large Chinese companies operate in Iraq’s oil fields. The total value of these investments amounts to hundreds of billions of dollars. Every missile Iran launches toward the Gulf hits China’s coffers. This is the true source of Beijing’s anger . As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the pressure on the Chinese economy increases exponentially.
In the short term, China is relatively comfortable. It has a strategic oil reserve of 1.39 billion barrels. This reserve covers approximately 120 days of consumption. In addition, there are millions of barrels of floating inventory waiting in the…
