Iran is crumbling before our eyes, and even regime officials know it. The Islamic Republic assured the world for many years that it would never ask for assistance. The economy of resistance, the concept of self-sufficiency, and the arrogant assertion that Iran will face the world alone, if necessary, formed the basis of the entire identity of the regime.
This is how the Islamic Republic was able to stay in power despite all the sanctions and the fact that its own people hated the government. All of that is being disrupted now by the conflict and the US blockade. The Iranian foreign minister fled to Russia yesterday, pleading with Vladimir Putin for assistance.
This is the same Putin who is incapable of defending his own refineries. And to survive, Iran needs Russian assistance. Let me show you what President Trump posted this morning before we go into this Russian-Iranian summit. Iran has told us that they are collapsing. They want us to open the Strait of Hormus as quickly as possible while they work to determine their leadership role, which I believe they can achieve.
However, Iran’s precarious economic situation and the US blockade that is cutting off Iran’s economic lifeblood are probably the causes of the state of collapse to which Trump refers. Iran has been unable to conduct regular trade for more than two weeks. There are no imports or exports taking place. According to recent satellite data, Iranian ports are becoming somewhat overcrowded as a result of ships being unable to leave Iranian waters.
Ships can load at Iranian ports and pass through the Strait of Hormuz, but cannot travel further due to a blockade in the Gulf of Oman. Because of this, the Gulf of Oman is becoming somewhat overcrowded, particularly in Iranian waters. Iran’s economy is being strangled from both sides by this blockade, which is a double blow.
First, since they depended on exports that are no longer happening , they have no income. Secondly, however, there are no imports scheduled to arrive. Iranian authorities are genuinely scared, as the country’s economy is being squeezed from both sides, because a large part of its food depended on imports from other nations that are no longer arriving.
Take a look at this recent report. Iranian officials are increasingly worried that the protests could resume. In fact, Iran’s Supreme National Security Council met yesterday to discuss growing concerns from security agencies about a possible repeat of protests similar to those that occurred in Iran in January.
Internal assessments and intelligence reports indicating a possible uprising in the coming days prompted the convening of this meeting. According to the information provided, Iranian authorities believe that growing economic difficulties, such as rising prices, unemployment, and damage to the steel and petrochemical industries, could serve as the main catalyst for future protests.
According to estimates discussed during the conference, Iran’s economy might not be able to withstand a US naval blockade for more than 6 to 8 weeks. This is where I do want to be clear. This assessment will be slightly more optimistic because it comes from the Iranian perspective and discusses Iran’s economic status rather than oil stockpiling, which has been the subject of our recent discussions.
Yes, I have updated figures on Iran’s oil reserves and when they will run out, but first let’s finish this story. The US blockade began on April 13, as some of you may recall. This indicates that ATES has been in effect for more than two weeks and Iran simply cannot continue to paralyze its economy in this way.
However, the Iranian economy is also negatively affected by other factors. The near-complete shutdown of the internet in Iran was another significant issue raised at this summit. Iranian security officials say that nearly 20% of the workforce, particularly those who work online, are essentially unemployed as a result of the internet blackout.
They are powerless to stop the unemployment caused by the internet shutdown, which could result in 2 million more people losing their jobs in the private sector. For those who haven’t noticed, the Iranian internet has been down for almost two months. The 60-day period has now ended. 99.9% of Iranians simply cannot connect to the outside world or use the internet.
That equates to about 90 million people. That alone can teach you everything you need to know about the people Iranian leaders genuinely fear because they are aware that protests will resume and cannot risk a repeat of what happened in January. The regime does not want Iranians to interact with the outside world or with each other.
That is precisely why the regime was only days away from being overthrown. They are willing to give up their economy. To maintain their grip on power, they are willing to give up anything. Returning to the discussion that took place in Iran, the Iranian security services essentially concluded that public protests were inevitable.
They’re going to start over . The only uncertain thing is when they will resume. They have no idea when it will happen. It could happen tomorrow, it could happen in a few months, and that worries them. Because of this, regime officials are panicking and looking for any way to gain some respite. Yesterday we discussed Iran’s proposal to the United States to reopen the Strait of Hormus in exchange for the United States lifting its naval blockade.
From an American perspective, this makes no sense. Iran’s nuclear ambitions were the catalyst for this conflict, and until Iran resolves that issue, negotiations will not take place. The United States does not intend to give Iran a lifeline during its challenging circumstances. Iran is aware of this, which is why the Iranian foreign minister fled to Russia for help as soon as the country sent its suggestions to the United States.
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The video, which was released by Russian state media, shows the Iranian foreign minister arriving in St. Petersburg to meet with Putin. Additional video shows them interacting and conversing before their 2-hour private meeting. The most hilarious part actually happened before the meeting, as Teeran made it clear beforehand that Iranian diplomats would not be visiting Russia to solicit donations.
I ‘m not sure what prompted them to clarify that, but I think it’s never a good idea to have to declare at the beginning of a meeting, “Hey guys, we’re not here to beg, since you’re our partner, we’re here to work with you.” However, Iranians believe that Russia has not been doing enough. Know? Iran greatly assisted Russia during Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
They dispatched Iranian engineers to Russia to build factories that currently manufacture Shaget drones for Russia on Russian soil and also supplied Russia with ballistic missiles and Shaget drones. Sadly, in Iran’s hour of need, Russia has not been able to return that courtesy. That does not mean that Russia has not assisted Iran; however, they naturally have.
We have already discussed how, before the ceasefire, Russian satellites were flying over US bases. Days later, Iran may attack that US base or even an associated building where Russian satellites essentially provide coordinates for Iran to program into its drones. And then, you know, we have a strike that causes a fair amount of damage.
Thus, Russia was doing everything possible to help Iran. However, as you well know, Putin is somewhat distracted by Ukraine. As a result, it has been unable to provide Iran with much- needed assistance. So whatever happens and comes out of this conference will be fascinating. There was a 2-hour closed-door meeting , as I mentioned.
So it’s not clear exactly what was discussed. The fact that the head of the Russian security services attended this conference was intriguing. We witnessed this last year during the 12-day conflict, when an Iranian team traveled to Russia to discuss essentially the conflict and a number of issues that we are unaware of, as they take place behind closed doors.
However, the presence of the security chief at this meeting indicates that Iran did discuss its plans in case the conflict resumes. However, that could just be my guess. We do n’t know for sure, but if something happens in the future, we’ll find out. I make an effort to ignore the statements made by these individuals, particularly those from Iran, China, or Russia.
I try to pay attention to what they do. Therefore, we will know exactly what was said at this meeting if Russia decides to help Iran in the future. From now on, none of the statements made by both parties after the meeting were particularly convincing. It didn’t really provide any information about what was actually addressed, what was crucial, or what wasn’t.
However, I am confident that we will resolve that in the future. Now, oil storage is another problem that Iran is facing. Kepler published a study yesterday that estimates Iran’s timeframe. Kepler is a multinational research company that supplies data to large oil companies. What they are saying is obviously very important.
Furthermore, they estimate that Iran has enough unused storage to last between 12 and 22 days. As you can imagine, Iran is not open about its stockpile, so I cannot provide an accurate figure. However, Kepler believes they could have up to 22 days, which is extremely optimistic given everything we know about Iran before the start of this conflict; they also have something intriguing in common.
According to their analysis, they have not seen any oil tankers in the area surrounding the Gulf of Oman that have successfully passed the US embargo. This means that Iran cannot send its oil tankers to its customers, even if it loads them. They are getting trapped in the Gulf of Oman or the Persian Gulf.
And keep in mind that a lot of false information has been circulating. So this is where I want to be clear. Only ships and tankers entering or leaving Iranian ports are subject to the US ban. The nationality of the ship is irrelevant. Second, the Gulf of Oman is not within the blockade line. It is located directly between the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman.
That’s crucial because there are numerous stories that essentially say, “Hey, an Iranian oil tanker just crossed the Strait of Hormuz.” However, since the United States isn’t actually blocking the Strait of Hormuz, it makes no difference, therefore it’s irrelevant. They can travel to a port in Iran, load oil, and pass through the Strait of Hormuz before becoming stranded in the Gulf of Oman.
They are unable to escape. Second, the United States isn’t blocking an oil tanker that, say, is headed to a port in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, or any other Gulf nation. It’s free to travel wherever it pleases. Therefore, the US blockade remains effective, even if such a tanker escapes. Now, satellite photos are another way to see the actual effectiveness of the US blockade, more precisely by focusing on the number of ships that are essentially clogging the Gulf of Oman as a result of obtaining oil from Iranian ports, passing through the Strait
of Hormuz, and becoming stranded. They can’t leave. It’s quite difficult to see, as you can appreciate in the image. satellite imagery on your screen. However, you can see some white dots in the water if you have the ability to pause and are using a computer or a larger screen. These are the waters of the Gulf of Oman.
These white specks are essentially oil tankers simply drifting in the Gulf of Oman, as the US Navy warns them that attempting to break the blockade will not be beneficial. Thus, a few of these tankers try. They simply turn around after hearing a US Navy radio communication. They merely linger in the Gulf of Oman until the blockade is lifted, which has been in place for about two weeks and will likely continue until a peace agreement is reached.
As for a peace agreement, it appears that Iran is preparing to present another peace proposal to the United States after the US rejected the one they presented yesterday. Iran is expected to present an updated peace plan in a few days, according to sources. Pakistani mediators anticipate a revised Iranian offer in the near future.
The previous proposal to postpone nuclear negotiations was rejected by the United States. The leadership is said to be Iran’s Supreme Leader is tough and slow to communicate, even though the foreign minister met with them in Tehran. The procedure remains flexible and depends on Iran’s updated terms . Iran is sending us mixed messages.
As we reported a few days ago, the new Supreme Leader’s picture was displayed on a mural honoring all those who have lost their lives in this conflict during an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) event in a major Iranian city. Given that it was an IRGC event, that was a bit confusing. However, the official Iranian position is that the Supreme Leader is still alive despite his injuries.
In fact, we received additional information about that yesterday, and it came directly from Putin. During his conversation with the Iranian foreign minister, Putin suggested that the new Supreme Leader, Mostafa Kenei, who has yet to appear in public, had sent him a message. “Tell the Supreme Leader how much I appreciate his message and wish him well,” he said.
Now I think it was a written letter rather than a phone call or video call, as I don’t see why Putin I would say, “Please convey my appreciation for your message” instead of “Thank you for the call.” Again, this raises serious questions about whether the Supreme Commander is still alive, if this were, for example, a letter or something else.
We have yet to see our hearts in a message written by someone impersonating the Supreme Commander. Anyway, back to Rubio. He was also questioned about the Iranian plan we discussed yesterday, in which Iran essentially said, “Hey, let’s talk right now about the Strait of Hormus and the blockade, and we’ll end the war, and then we’ll talk about nuclear in the future.
” The Iranian authorities essentially said, “The nuclear thing isn’t a big deal.” Let us consider a nation that is willing to attack its own allies. Qatar was going to be an ally of Iran. Even now, Oman is undoubtedly an ally of Iran. However, that was irrelevant from the perspective of the Islamic Republic, because they perceived this conflict as an existential threat to their survival and authority.
To survive, they were prepared to burn down the entire area. As a result, they began to attack their allies. Furthermore, they are attacking civilian ships and oil tankers in international waters. To survive what they perceived as the fall of the regime, Iran essentially embarked on a wave of terrorism. Let us now imagine that such a regime possesses nuclear weapons.
Nobody on the planet would be safe. Let’s continue now. Rubio was also asked whether Iran’s leadership has gone completely crazy or if they are genuinely interested in a deal. Listen to his answer. Do you think the Iranians are sincere about reaching an agreement? I believe Iranians are sincere about escaping their current situation.
Iran experienced riots a few months ago, and these riots were of an economic nature. All of Iran’s problems from before the conflict still exist, and most of them have worsened. They no longer have a navy, industries, or even half of their missiles. What happens if there is no agreement? Again, the president has the final say on the matter.
I would begin by reminding everyone of the tremendous severity of the sanctions against Iran. Iran is under tremendous pressure. And I think more can be done. However, I hope that global awareness of the threat from Iran has grown as a result of this confrontation. Now we must step back and examine how Iran came to be in order to understand why it acts this way.
That goes beyond simply going back to 1979, the year of the Islamic revolution. Thank you for watching Military Chronicle. To support me, don’t forget to subscribe to the channel and like the video. We have also activated our memberships for you. If you want to be by my side and contribute to my development, you can help us with subscriptions, Super Chat, and joining.
