In the straight of Huz, ships are still waiting for permission to move. Insurance companies are still calculating the risk and the world is still checking every rumor coming from Thran or from Washington. Even with diplomats talk about an agreement that may be closed, the waters around Iran remain one of the most dangerous and expensive places for the global economy.
“So, is Iran really capable of paralyzing the world through one strait? Or is the Middle East’s greatest economic weapon no longer as frightening as it once was? I’m Pinto and this is your ground report on the war of Israel and the United States against Iran, the revolutionary guards and the entire terrorist system that Tehran operates across the Middle East.”
To understand the great pressure on President Trump, we need to begin where military war becomes economic war, not only on the battlefield, not only in the skies of Iran, but in the price of a barrel of oil, in the price of an airline ticket, in the cost of maritime shipping, and in the price of a simple product that reaches the supermarket shelf. With the beginning of the war against Iran, the broader Iranian plan was exposed. Not only to survive the strikes by Israel and the United States, but also to send the pain back to the world, blocking the straight of Hormuz, threatening the ships, laying sea mines, attacking energy infrastructure and trying to turn the Persian Gulf into an area every shipping company would fear entering. This is not only a military response. This is a method. Iran understands that it cannot defeat the United States in a regular navy battle. It also understands that Israel and the United States can strike the heart of its military system. So it turns to other tools. It tries to take its geographical advantage, its proximity to the straight of Homus and turn it into a weapon against the entire world.
The straight of Hummus is a narrow passage between the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean. It looks small on the map, but it carries enormous weight. Through this area passes a massive amount of global energy, oil, liqufied natural gas, fuels, goods, and part of the chain that keeps the global economy moving. When Iran threatens Hormuz, it is not threatening only one ship. It is threatening and sending a message to the markets in London, traders in Singapore, factories in Europe, drivers in the United States of America, and governments in Asia. If the strait is not safe, the price rises almost everywhere. And it happened fast. With the beginning of the crisis, oil prices jumped by tens of percents.
At gas stations, in the air, at sea, and in contracts of industrial companies, everyone began pricing in fear. Airliners check fuel costs. Shipping companies at risk premiums. Insurance companies demand more money to cover the passage through a dangerous area. And every increase like this does not remain only with the ship arose forward all the way to the consumer. And that is why hummus became the center of pressure on Donald Trump. Because the war against Iran is not only a question of missiles, aircrafts and eliminations. It is also a questions of inflation, markets, elections, industry, and the ability of an American president to say to his public, I am protecting security, but I’m not breaking the economy. And this is exactly where Iran is trying to apply additional pressure because Thran wants the world to look at this war and think maybe it is better to stop. Maybe it is better to reach an agreement. Maybe it is better to give Iran part of what they want just so that the oil will flow once more. This is economic blackmail in the language of a naval warfare. But here comes the big question. Does it still work the way it once did? And to answer this question, we need to go back to October 1973. During the Yomipur war, the Arab states understood that they had a powerful tool of pressure over the West, which was oil. They imposed an embargo on countries that supported the Jewish state of Israel and reduced their supply. And within a short time, prices jumped dramatically. In the Western world, a sense of shock was created.
Long lines at gas stations, factories forced to reduce activity, families changing driving habits, governments trying to understand how a modern economy could be stopped because of a barrel of oil. It was a defining moment. The world of 1973 was much more dependent on the Middle East. Cows consumed more fuel. Alternative energies barely existed on a meaningful scale. I’m talking about domestic production in the United States did not provide the same safety net that exists today. Energy markets were less flexible and when OPEC and the Arab states used oil as a weapon, the West felt that it was being choked. The crisis created a world that people feared for years. It is a dangerous situation in which prices rise but the economy does not grow. The public pays more, businesses struggle to expand, central banks get trapped, and the government struggles to choose between biting inflation and preventing a recession. The trauma of 1970s changed the entire world. Countries began searching for oil in other places. The North Sea gained greater importance. Alaska became part of the American strategic thinking. Car manufacturers were forced to build more fuelefficient cars. Governments created emergency reserves. Countries began to understand that energy is not only an economic issue but part of a national security. And 50 years later, Kamini and the revolutionary guards tried to pull the same threat off the shelf. But the shelf has changed. The world of 2026 is still dependent on oil and gas, but it is no longer captive. In the same way, there are more energy sources. There is more production outside of the Middle East. There is natural gas from the United States, from Norway, and also from Canada. There is solar and wind energy on a larger scale. There are emergency reserves. There is an ability to release oil into the market. And there is a whole global market that reacts faster even if it is still frightened. The meaning is simple. Iran can cause great pain, but it’s harder for it to cause total collapse. And that is exactly the difference between shock and collapse. Shock, yes. Price increases, yes. Damage to logistics, yes. Political pressure on Trump, absolutely. But total paralysis of the global economy, the kind that Thran may have hoped to see, is a much more complicated story. So the global economy learned from the pain of 1973. It did not become immune. There is no such thing as a full immunity when the most important maritime passage in the Middle East becomes dangerous. But it did become more diversified. And that is what troubles Iran.
If the world can hold just a little bit longer, then Iran is losing its leverage. They can still threaten. They can still raise the prices. They can still damage the markets and their confidence, but they can no longer be sure that the entire system will immediately bend. And meanwhile, even inside the Gulf itself, the Arab states are not behaving as they did in 1973. The United Arab Emirates, one of the most important countries in the Gulf. I’m talking about the energy market, chose to leave OPEC and also OPEC plus. This is a dramatic step because OPEC was created to allow oil states to coordinate the production influence prices and then to preserve the power against the world’s major consumers. And for years, countries like the Emiratis had to live with quotes and amounts that they can produce. They were told how much they were allowed to create in terms of oil, how much they were allowed to sell, at what prices, when to reduce, when to open the tap. It was a game of collective discipline, usually under the Saudi Arabian leadership. But the Amiratis is now looking at a different reality. It sees Iran threatening the Gulf. It sees risks to its ports, to its airports, to its energy facilities, trade and tourism. It sees a crisis in which whoever keeps it inside a rigged production framework may limit its ability to respond to the market. And so, it’s a message, a clear message. Abu Dhabi wants freer hands. They want to do what they want in the oil market. And this is very important because if the amiratis if they can produce and also sell more oil outside of the OPEC limits, it can add supply to the markets in moments of pressure. And that that does not remove humus from the map. It does not eliminate the mines. It does not solve the Iranian missile threat, but it does reduce part of Iran’s ability to turn every shortage into a global chokeold. And here here a domino effect can begin and more countries more countries that no longer depend on OPEC that no longer are under the OPEC umbrella. It means that the power of this cartel is shrinking. It limits them during a crisis. They may look for a more independent path. Once more, producers compete for the market share instead of preserving a joint quota. The price receives pressure in the opposite direction. This competition. There’s no fear to raise the prices. Only the natural markets decides how much production is needed based on supply and demand. And this is a very big point in this war. Because Iran, they tried to use the oil to frighten the entire world. But the crisis is also pushing other countries to break their old frameworks. What was once a power club of the Middle East is beginning to look less united, less disciplined, and more exposed to different national interests. In simple words, the region’s economic weapon is still dangerous, but the hand holding it is no longer as stable as it once was. And now we need to understand the dilemma of the Gulf States because on the one hand they want the straight open up. They need the energy exports. They need tourism. They need financial stability. They need ships to arrive, aircraft carriers, aircrafts to land, take off, investors to continue believing that the Gulf is a safe place to do business in. On the other hand, they do not want a full war with Iran on their soil. They know Thran can launch drones, missiles, or activate local networks. They remember that every energy facility, port or airport can become a military target. And so they pressure Washington towards diplomacy, but also strengthen air defense, maritime security, and their ties with the United States and with Israel. This is not a contradiction. This is the reality of the Gulf. They want to calm the crisis without giving Iran too big of a reward. They want the opening of Hmus without recognizing Iranian control over an international passage. They want oil flowing, but they do not want the world to get used to the idea that every ship has to pass through the mood of the revolutionary guards and pay them for it. And that is why the question of humus is not only whether ships can move. The question is under what conditions do they move. So if Iran agrees to remove the mines and allow free passage, that’s one step. If it demands coordination fees, special route or the right to decide who passes and who does not pass, that’s a different story. That’s not freedom of navigation. That’s pressure mechanism with a diplomatic flag. And this this is where Israel enters the picture. Israel looks at the emerging agreement and asks a very simple question. Does it dismantle the capabilities or only delay an explosion? If the agreement opens Huz but leaves Iran with its missile systems, it drones, its mines, past boats, his valadis and the militias, then Iran has not surrendered. It has only moved from a phase of open fire to a phase of waiting. And if the nuclear issue remains open or if Iran keeps the enriched material as a card, then the truly great risk has not disappeared. It is only returning to another folder. That’s why Israel speaks carefully. There is an understanding that the world wants quiet. There is an understanding that Trump needs an achievement. There is an understanding that the Gulf States want to return to routine. But there is also a bitter experience in this region. A ceasefire that does not dismantle the threat, that allows an enemy to count the days until the next round is not good for anybody.
Now, let us return to the economy because there is one more layer to this story because Iran also hurts itself. When Homus is closed or becomes dangerous, it is not only Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, Qatar, and Kuwait that are hurting. Iran itself is also hurting because they need to export oil. They need to bring money in. Iran needs to maintain an economy that is already under sanctions, erosion, corruption, and internal pressure. All that does not leave on time becomes a problem. Storage tanks fill up. Production shells need adjustments. Customers look for other suppliers. Smuggling networks become complicated. And a country that tries to use energy as a weapon discovers that it also depends on pipelines, ports, ships, and insurance. That is why the Iranian story is a boomerang. The revolutionary guards wanted to choke the world to Homus, but they also closed parts of their own breathing route. The longer the crisis continues, the more pressure on Thran grows. Not only from the outside, also from within. Companies, traders, revolutionary guards, state mechanisms, and everyone who lives off the money that comes in from the energy sales, all of them feel the price. Our regime can speak the language of resistance but its bank accounts speak in a colder language and here Trump’s is trying to play this game. On the one hand he’s threatening the naval blockade on Iran continues. American forces in the region remain. Naval and air assets continue to maintain pressure. On the other hand, he opens a door to an agreement. If Iran opens Hmus, removes mines, allows free passage and enters the talks, it can receive relief, open ports, and perhaps receive access to funds that have been frozen in the past. Frozen because of sanctions. This is a classic staking carrot. But in the region where every side holds a match next to a few, it’s very dangerous. So Iran wants to receive relief without giving up the pillars of its power. And Trump wants a deal that looks like a victory. And then the Gulf States, they want stability. And Islan here, we want to make sure that the threat is not preserved for another day. And the global market wants one thing, certainty. What will happen? But certainty does not come from statements. It comes from ships passing again and again without incident. It comes from insurance companies lowering their premiums. It comes from tankers sailing on a normal route without asking whether the revolutionary guards approve or not. It comes from mines that are actually being removed from the water from anti-ship missiles not waiting on the coast. and from Iran understanding that renewed disruption will cost it an immediate price. Until that happens, remains a question mark. We can see oil prices fall on a day when there is a good rumor, a good leak. We can see a spike on the day when there is a new threat. The market reacts quickly, sometimes too quickly. But behind the graphs lies a simple truth. As long as the straight is not completely safe, the global economy has not returned to normal. And still, this must be said in a balanced way. This is not 1973. The world is not calm, but it is also not helpless. It learned to build reserves. It learned to diversify. It has resources. It learned to develop alternative energy. It learned to use natural gas, pipelines, American production, and a more flexible market. It learned that whoever depends completely on one region gives his enemy leverage. Iran tried to return the world to the trauma of the 1970s, but the world did not fully return there. It was pressured, yes, it paid the price, yes, it also showed that it has more ways to balance itself. That’s not a reason to underestimate Iran. On the contrary, precisely because its economic weapon is less absolute. It may search for other ways to raise the price. More drones, more threats against the ships, more cyber attacks, more pressure on the energy facilities, more attempts to activate hisbala, the houthis, and all their militias all around this world. A regime that feels its card is eroding sometimes tries to prove that it is still dangerous and that is the risk of the coming weeks. If the agreement is signed, the world will want to celebrate falling prices. But here in Israel, we have to check what is written in the fine print. Is Iran really stopping its threats against hummus? Is it giving up the production development of weapons? Is it giving up the option to collect fees from passing ships on their routes? Is the nuclear issue entering a real solution? Are the proxies being blocked? Isbala in Lebanon paying a price? Are the Houthis in Yemen stopping their threats? Are there any shipping lanes that are still affected? Because if the answer is no, then hummus is only a maritime passage, one chapter of a much larger problem that we did not solve. The Iranian system is built to apply pressure in several areas at once. If one door is closed up, it looks for a window. If pressure is applied at sea, it activates the missiles. If pressure is applied on the nuclear issue, it activates the proxies. If pressure is applied through sanctions, it tries to ignite the energy market. That is why this war is not measured only by the number of strikes. It is measured by the ability to dismantle a mechanism. Hm. Is a test. If the world succeeds in opening the strait without giving Iran the right to blackmail everyone again, it will be a serious blow to the revolutionary guards. And if the agreement gives Thran money, time, and legitimacy without dismantling its tools of pressure, then Iran will emerge from the crisis without the opposite lesson. Because next time they understand that they need to press harder, apply more economic pressure on everybody because it’s working. And he lied the difference between a solution and just a pause to the problem. A solution means that the waters are open, the threat decreases, and the Iranian system loses the ability to blackmail the world through energy. A pause means prices drop for a few weeks, the markets breathe, and then everyone discovers that the political minds are still waiting beneath the surface. The strait may open, but the Iranian threat will not disappear just because the ships move again. And the question now is whether the world has learned the lesson of 1973 or whether it is about to pay again to buy temporary quiet from Thran. Let me know what you think about this in the comments section. In the meantime, keep spreading the truth. Follow us and most importantly, don’t forget to click on the subscribe button so that you stay tuned to the truth in real time and never miss another update of Boots on the Ground. Keep looking for us, Mati Roashan in Pinto, on our social media platforms to see life in Israel through our eyes. And the best thing that you can do for this situation and in general for every situation is to pray. So I’m calling on all of you now to unite in prayer, especially for our leaders, for wisdom, for our soldiers, and for the peace of Jerusalem. And we’ll see you again next time.
“Hello, this is Mati here in Jerusalem with TBN Israel.”
“This is Yaya Pinto from TVN Israel here in Jerusalem.”
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