Iran FREAKS OUT AT THE SIGHT of a Saudi-Emirati coalition to OVERTHROW TEHRAN!!!

The Transcript Documentation

In Israel, there is an atmosphere of war alert. Here in the country, there is a feeling that any moment now, the war could return. And today, I want to ask, is the president of the United States bluffing in the game? Are we heading towards a strike, or is everything about to stop with an agreement signed? Both you and I are probably a little tired of this, but here in Israel, it is extremely frustrating.

“So now I will bring you the whole truth of what is happening in the loudest ceasefire, one that affects the daily lives of all of us. And the engines are warming up. Just last night, Trump and Netanyahu held a long and dramatic phone call. All of this is happening in the shadow of the possibility that the fighting may resume.”

“And like every day recently, the Revolutionary Guards are sending another threat. If the attacks resume, the war will spread beyond the Middle East. The Emirates are preparing for the scenario of another confrontation with Iran. And while, according to our understanding, Trump is determined to return and strike Iran, is it possible that the American Congress will manage to stop him? I am Shashani and tonight, Yayu Pinto is on vacation.”

“Stay with us because Benny Sabti will join us, an Iran expert who knows the language, the culture, and the psychology of the regime from the inside. Now, it is worth staying because with him, we will try to understand what is really happening in Tehran and what Iran’s next move will be against Israel and the United States.”

“Look, let us put the fact that it is clear to all of us on the table in the Middle East today. We need to look less at the statements and more at the iron moving on the ground. If Trump is bluffing, it is a bluff backed by two aircraft carriers, by destroyers, by long-range missiles, and refueling aircraft that are already within operational range.”

“This is not the deployment of a ground invasion or regime change. This is a deployment that fits exactly with a short, sharp, and painful punitive strike against the revolutionary guards, the missile system, or the nuclear sites. And that is why the American flexibility in the negotiations does not necessarily move a strike farther away.”

“It may be the final stage before Washington says, ‘We gave them a chance. Now we speak with fire.’ Since the beginning of the ceasefire, Iran has not behaved like a country that wants calm, but like someone trying to turn the entire Gulf into a hostage. They have hijacked ships. They fired UAVs towards shipping lanes, attacked the Emirates, threatened Saudi Arabia, scattered mines in the Strait of Hormuz, and then even tried to dictate to the world where ships are allowed to sail and how much they must pay for it.”

“In other words, while everyone is talking about diplomacy, Tehran is running a war of extortion. A little maritime terror, a little fire through proxies, a little threat against global energy. And that is why the question is not why Iran would be attacked, but why anyone would bow down to it now when it is exposed under pressure and the entire region already understands that it is possible to hit it hard.”

“In response, as usual, more threats come from the revolutionary guards in Iran. If the aggression against Iran is repeated, the promised regional war will this time spread beyond the borders of the region. We are almost 3 months into the war and right now it feels like Tehran has managed to prevent a quick decision by the United States and Israel by disrupting the strait, threatening energy facilities in the Gulf and turning the shipping route into a bargaining chip.”

“During the night, US President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu held a phone call that was described as long and dramatic. Behind the scenes, there is growing concern in Washington. And this is where Russia enters the picture. Not as an innocent mediator, but as someone trying to keep Iran standing on its feet against American pressure. According to reports in the west, Moscow has already passed information to Tehran that could help identify the movement of American forces in the region, ships, bases, and aircraft.”

“In other words, when Washington brings air and naval power closer to the Gulf, the Russians are signaling to the Iranians, you are not alone, and we know where the Americans are operating. This does not mean that Russia wants a direct war with the United States, but it does mean that it is trying to make every American strike much more dangerous, expensive, and complicated.”

“So, it is pretty clear that while the war in Iran continues to shake the energy markets, concern is also growing in Washington about Chinese Russian assistance to Tehran. But according to what Trump said, President Xi promised that China would not arm Iran. However, today Putin and Xi met in Beijing as a global energy market once again enters a sensitive situation.”

“The war against Iran and the damage to supply through the Strait of Hormuz are bringing back to the center one of the largest and most stuck projects in Russia-China relations, the giant gas project between Moscow and Beijing. But despite the pressure on the energy market and Russia’s urgent need for an alternative market to Europe, China continues to pressure the price and is not rushing to close a deal.”

“Don’t forget that the American blockade on Iran continues. Overnight, the United States military took control of an oil tanker connected to Iran in the Indian Ocean. Apparently, more than 1 million barrels of crude oil were loaded onto it in Kharg Island. Now, right now, the severe economic tension has pushed gasoline prices in the United States to an average of $4.5 per gallon.”

“And inside Iran, some citizens are learning how to use rifles to repel the United States. Revolutionary Guard soldiers held weapons training workshops for Iranian civilians in an attempt to prepare the public for the possibility of a return to fighting. The other part of the population is collapsing under the pressure and violence of the regime.”

“Now we need to understand Trump’s central pressure point. It is not only the strike. It is also the possibility of not striking and continuing to choke Iran slowly day after day without paying too high an American price. Because while everyone is waiting to see whether the planes will take off, the naval blockade is already working, Iran is losing oil revenue, struggling to bring in foreign currency, struggling to export, struggling to import, and beginning to feel that time is not working in its favor.”

“It sounds less dramatic than an air strike. But sometimes in the Middle East, the quieter thing is the thing that hurts most. The numbers here matter. According to economic estimates, Iran is losing hundreds of millions of dollars every day that its exports remain blocked. It has already been hit by the loss of oil exports, by damage to steel plants, by damage to petrochemicals facilities, and by the growing fear among traders and countries of continuing to work with it.”

“Its currency reserves are truly approaching levels that are enough only for weeks of critical imports. This is the problem of a state beginning to suffocate. This is exactly where Trump can look at the Iranians and say, ‘Why rush? Why spend more expensive munitions? Why open another front? Why take the risk of American casualties if every passing day damages the Iranian regime more deeply from within?’ But here is also the risk.”

“Because an economically suffocated regime does not always become softer. Sometimes it becomes more dangerous. The revolutionary guards know that if the blockade continues for a long time, it will not only be the Iranian public that begins to boil. Some of the regime’s own supporters, workers in military industries, steel, petrochemical, government, and everyone who lives off the system will also begin asking what all of this is for.”

“That is why Tehran is trying to turn the blockade from an American story into a global story. They do not want to suffocate alone. They want China to feel the price, Europe to feel the price, the Gulf States to feel the price. An American citizen at a gas station to ask why he is paying so much more.”

“That is why Hormuz has become a weapon. Not only a way to close a maritime route, but a way to turn every tanker, every insurance company, every port, and every government into part of the crisis. When the United States seizes an Iranian tanker far from Iran’s coast in the Indian Ocean, for instance, with more than 1 million barrels of crude oil, the message is clear.”

“The blockade does not remain only in the strait. It follows Iran’s shadow fleet far from home. And here we need to pay attention to something else. The seizure of a tanker does not look like a bombing. There is no big explosion, no smoke, no dramatic image of a fighter jet. But for Iran, it is a direct blow to the pocket.”

“It is a blow to its ability to bypass sanctions. It is a blow to the network of old ships, hidden routes, ship-to-ship transfers, and economy that lives in the gray zone. At the same time, the Emirates understands that it is sitting exactly on the line between diplomacy and war. On the one hand, Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, and Doha asked Trump to stop the strike and give talks another chance.”

“On the other hand, those same leaders know that if Iran comes out of the story without being truly harmed, it will return to them later with an open account. Their fear is not theoretical. A drone attack towards a civilian Balaka nuclear power plant, which according to the Emirates came from Iraqi territory, is a severe warning sign.”

“If pro-Iranian militias can threaten facilities like that, then desalination facilities, ports, oil fields, and refineries can also be in the crosshairs in the next round. That is exactly the Emirates’ increasing coordination with Israel and CENTCOM. Not necessarily in order to run towards war, but in order to not be caught unprepared if war comes their way.”

“Air defense, intelligence, maritime coordination, and the ability to detect launches early from Iraq, Yemen, or Iran. All of these are now part of the picture. That brings us back to the big question. Is the negotiation really moving forward, or is Iran simply buying time? The Egyptians are talking about the possibility of a memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran, a document that would set principles for what comes next.”

“It sounds good on paper, but in the Middle East, paper does not stop missiles. Paper does not remove mines from the water. Paper does not dismantle mobile launchers. And paper does not guarantee that Lebanon will stop rebuilding its network. The Egyptian demand for freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is a critical condition. Without it, any regional arrangement will be hollow.”

“Because if Iran continues to hold Hormuz as a card, it is essentially telling the world maybe we sign something, but our hand is still on the tap of energy.”

“And meanwhile, NATO finds itself facing a dilemma it tried to avoid. If Hormuz does not open and if prices in Europe continue to rise, can the alliance remain on the sidelines? On the one hand, European countries do not want to look as if they are joining Trump and Israel’s war against Iran. On the other hand, when the crisis reaches electricity bills, fuel prices, and factories in Europe, the separation between a regional war and a global economic crisis begins to break down.”

“NATO’s problem is that not all countries see Iran the same way. Some countries want to keep waiting. Some countries are prepared to provide logistical support quietly, and some countries fear that every escort of a commercial ship could turn within minutes into a confrontation with Revolutionary Guard boats, drones, mines, or anti-ship missiles.”

“That is why the next NATO summit could become a test moment. If the strait remains blocked or dangerous, the alliance will have to choose between two risks: not acting and looking weak or acting and risking a more direct entry into the war. At the same time, Russia and China are playing a different game.”

“Putin and Xi met in Beijing and the war in Iran brought the giant Power of Siberia 2 gas project back to the table. This is a pipeline meant to carry gas from Russia to China through Mongolia. For Moscow, it is a way to find an alternative market after Europe closed the door. For China, it is a way to receive land-based energy that does not depend on tankers, maritime insurance, Hormuz, or the American Navy. But China is not rushing.”

“It knows Russia needs the deal more than it does. It is pressing on the price, checking the alternatives, and looking at the Middle East, not only through ideology, but through supply. If Hormuz is burning, a land pipeline from Russia suddenly looks much more interesting. At the same time, Trump says Xi promised him that China will not arm Iran.”

“That is an important statement. But not everyone in Washington is calm because even if China is not sending weapons directly and even if Russia is not sending soldiers, knowledge, intelligence, spare parts, bypass systems, and economic assistance can be enough to keep Tehran on its feet just a little longer. And inside Iran, the regime is trying to show that it has not broken.”

“The revolutionary guards are threatening that if the strikes return, the war will expand beyond the borders of the region. They say they have not used all their capabilities. They threaten to strike places the enemies do not expect. This is not only a military threat. It is also an internal performance. They need to show the Iranian people that the regime is still strong.”

“But the fact that they are teaching civilians to use rifles in central Tehran tells another story. A regime that is confident in itself does not need to arm civilians with Kalashnikovs in the streets and tell them to prepare for an American invasion. This is an attempt to create unity by force to turn fear into patriotism and to remind every citizen that the war is not over even if there are currently no explosions above their heads.”

“In Israel, all of this is being watched with the understanding that a decision will not come through one sentence from Trump or one statement from Tehran. It will come through a combination of economic pressure, of military readiness, of diplomatic isolation, and damage to Iran’s ability to rebuild itself. If there is a strike, we will not only be checking a box, it will need to change the balance.”

“Lebanon is also watching every moment. Reports identified with Hezbollah are already trying to describe what an Israeli opening blow would look like if the war with Iran resumes. Assassinations, strikes against energy infrastructure, attacks on military industries, and possibly special operations against sensitive targets.”

“This must be taken carefully because it is also part of psychological warfare. But the very fact that they speak this way shows that they understand the Lebanese arena is not disconnected from Iran. That is exactly the point. If Iran sets the Gulf on fire, Lebanon will not remain quiet. If Hezbollah tries to exploit the moment, Israel will not be able to wait.”

“And if Hamas tries to bring itself back to the center through kidnappings or escalation in Gaza, the South will also re-enter the equation. That is why this moment is so dangerous. This is not only a question of whether Trump will strike or not. This is a question of whether economic pressure will be sufficient to bend Iran before Iran tries to break the pressure through fire.”

“Okay, Benny, let us dive straight into it. I think the topic that I am most interested in and maybe our viewers are also most interested to understand is what is really happening inside Iran? What is happening with the regime? Is there actually a leader in Iran that is leading or is there a lot of internal fighting in Iran right now?”

“Thank you for having me here and thank you for this important question because things are not as they are shown in TV shows or news from inside Iran towards the rest of the world. The Iranian regime today is not so stable. Not just because of the war or the coming war, but because of their behavior. These generals that took over the regime, they are much more fanatic, much more radical than the last leader Khamenei the father and also his son that took the leadership.”

“He is a friend of IRGC generals. He does not care about the needs of the people. Of course, not caring about any kind of good relationship with the world, maybe just with China or Russia or other not so positive countries and not so democratic of course countries. So they are bringing this regime to a kind of an end by themselves.”

“They are not making the people satisfied. The prices are going higher and higher every day. The situation inside Iran around the issues of security even the thieves and stealing from houses that they were heard in the war. This is a phenomenon that is going on from the war and it is not because of us or Israel. It is because of their kind of behaving. They do not care about the people. They do not care about their needs. There is no water again in Iran or not so much food. Iran is an importer country. They import anything. They just have only oil to sell and buy anything from outside. Even saffron is not Iranian anymore.”

“So if they do not care about the people and they neglect them, they can be brought down in a very few, maybe a few months or maybe not more than a year because they think only about themselves becoming stronger and stronger in military aspects and does not care about 90 million people. It is not a good thing to do as a regime.”

“So what are you saying, Benny? You are saying that regardless of what the US does, regardless of what Trump tweets tomorrow morning, one way or another, the Iranian regime is already doomed. Is that what you are saying?”

“Of course. The first war against the Iran regime in June and the second one, they pushed them towards that place of falling. You know, for example, there was a secret poll inside Iran by the regime in October or November after the first war by Israel and US against Iran. Of course, we pushed them to that place, but the regime itself pushed itself to that place. The poll said, and it is a real poll. It is a secret poll by the regime. It is not on internet or something, but it was accidentally revealed to the media.”

“It says that 92% of the Iranians hate the regime. They are not satisfied from the regime. In another polls, they even love Jews and love Israel. And we see all their comments toward US or toward Israel. They want us to come and fight the regime. It is not because Benny has a wishful thinking. No, it is Iranians saying that.”

“So 92% of Iranians of 90 million people, it is a huge number. We saw that in the protests in December and January. There were more and more millions. It never happened before. Today it is a very hard thing to do because they were so massacred and so frightened now. But maybe if President Trump gives them some hope and really comes for them, not only for the nuclear issue, not only for the missile issue, but for freeing Iran people, all of us, we will have a better place and better life here in Middle East and maybe all over the world because Iran regime has many hands also in US, in Europe, by Islamic centers, by demonstrations against Israel or against us, by this slogan of ‘Free Palestine.’ But many things happened in that place of under that slogan of ‘Free Palestine.’ So if we give some strength to the Iranian people, they cannot do it by themselves.”

“Who is actually leading Iran right now? And I think this has been a question that has come up a lot where you will see someone go to the negotiations and then someone else back at home in Iran will tweet or immediately respond and say, ‘No, no, do not listen to the foreign minister. He does not know what he is talking about. Do not listen to whoever it is. He does not know what he is talking about; he is not the president.’ Who is actually making the shots behind the scenes? I have heard these vague statements about it is someone in the revolutionary guards, but we do not know who it is. What is really going on as far as the leadership goes in Iran?”

“You are absolutely right and it is a very exact showing of the reality now in the regime. There is no one guy that you can put your finger on and say this is the Iranian leader. The Iranian leader, the son of the last leader Mojtaba, he is wounded as as we know. He is in a very bad shape. Maybe he lost some parts of his body, but he mentally he is functioning and all of his consultants are IRGC generals. This is a huge problem. Nobody is thinking about the country. It is kind of what happened to Hamas. They are all part of the military parts of Hamas and the other parts are outside of Gaza Strip. This is exactly what is happening with the Iranian regime. All of them are fanatic, are IRGC generals. They care only about fighting, stealing the billions of dollars of the oil money or whatever remained in Iran. There is no one figure that is deciding. They are so afraid from each other all these generals that they have to sit all the time in a council in a security council as they name it.”

“And they also brought back some 80-year-old generals and figures from, you know, from somewhere, from their houses because they do not have enough people, they do not have enough generals. Israel and US took out many of them and they were very experienced and there today there are not so many experienced generals in IRGC. So there is a mess actually in this Iranian regime. They have to sit together and just as you said before, they just know to say no. They do not say yes. Pay attention. Foreign Ministry of Iran wants to go now maybe to New York. No. Having conversation and negotiations with us. No, they do not know how to say yes. They do not know how to compromise. This is the thing that says to me that all these kind of negotiations and there is no real negotiations, maybe exchanging letters or something by Pakistanis, it goes nowhere. And so the sooner we solve the Iranian issue, it is better.”

“Well, what happens next then? I mean, if I follow your line of thought, which I think is very accurate. You obviously you speak the language, you understand what they are really saying to each other. If they cannot make a decision, if they cannot actually negotiate, which is something even President Trump and his team have alluded to several times, saying, ‘We are not sure who is really making the shots or calling the shots in Iran.’ If that is the case, then an agreement would be meaningless, even if one was reached, and essentially it means we are going to just keep living in a moment of tension until something falls apart in Iran. I mean, am I misunderstanding you? Is that where this is going?”

“No, exactly. I agree to that. And sooner or later I think the only solution for Iranian regime and changing it to a better place is taking out all these few, very few generals of IRGC and maybe this leader that remained there Mojtaba and there are some moderate and normal figures, maybe they are old also from the Iranian regime or maybe the best option is bringing back some of the opposition outside of Iran. Maybe the crown prince, maybe a coalition of oppositions from outside. But I have another thing also to say about that. Those real moderate figures inside Iran, they can be so frightened and so desire have the desire to stay alive that they can also leave and have some coalition with this outsiders the opposition that comes back maybe from outside. There are some Iranian figures even from regime maybe they were there 20 years ago 25 years ago, those who made the movement of 2009 the green movement, they also do not want this regime as it is today or maybe as it was in this last five years because this fanatic regime did not come out in one night only when the father was gone no it was there for six, seven years. You have to re-educate to bring people to be to that place. So they were in that place in that fanatic and radical place. They had their hubris especially after October 7th. They had this dream that they thought that it is coming to be truth. Israel will be eliminated. US is very weak. So we will be the masters of Middle East and who knows maybe master of the world together with China and Russia. If we take out those who still are having these dreams, there are some other powers and they can make Iran better. Not so democratic in the first level, but in the short range we can get rid of all these elements of fanatic and radical places not helping and Hamas, not making more missiles and cities of missiles and of course not nuclear program. I think what you are saying is good news to my ears at least.”

“Because the fear in many people’s mind, myself included, was when the Ayatollah regime, when the IRGC falls in Iran, what if it goes into the path of Libya, the path of Iraq, of infighting and civil war that could last in a country of that size with that size of minorities and ethnic tensions. You could look at decades of infighting. You are saying there is enough of an internal and external opposition or stability in the structures that they would be able to rebuild in the day after as in we would see an initial collapse and then someone would still be strong enough within the regime to gather up a coalition other forces and form some kind of government that would be let us call it an interim solution until whatever formalizes later on. Is that what you are saying?”

“Yes. You know, I think those who make us afraid of revealing Iran and make it free, those are maybe they have some cooperation with the regime. They do not want this regime to be gone. So they write about these clashes inside Iran and fights of minorities, but no, Iranian minorities do not want to get rid of Iran. They want to be part of Iran. The Kurds, the Baluchis, they do not want to fight each other. Also they have some autonomic and ethnic demands like learning their languages or writing by their letters or very small thing, you know, it is not about bringing Iran down as a country they want it united and seven of these ethnic parties even they declared loyalty to the crown prince a few months ago in that in those days of the clashes and the protests on January. It was amazing. I had the proof that they do not want to make Iran apart. So if we have just some hope to bring to them and of course declare to them that we also do not want Iran to be a part so we can help them with that bringing the normal opposition from outside or turning to the normal moderate people inside Iran. I am not dreaming, you know, I can compromise about some things but not about the existence of Israel or making missile programs so bad that they can hurt also Europe or even USA. This regime has this dream. They have that plan to have 10,000 kilometers missiles to hit New York. I do not want them. I want some guys that want to talk to us or even to Israel. So the ethnic groups are with us in that place and there will not be any fights inside Iran. So we can make it better.”

“I have a question for you. Let us say President Trump or someone from his war cabinet was watching this. What would your recommendation to them be? Because the way they present things, the way the conversation has been going, it is very black and white. Give in and negotiate or, you know, or fire and brimstone will come down on you. It seems like you have a longer term understanding or perception of where this is going. What would your recommendation to them be? Let us say they call right now and they say, as President Trump does sometimes to television shows, and he says, ‘Benny, tell me what we need to do tomorrow and next month as it relates to the Iranians.’ What would your advice be?”

“Wow. I am very flattered and I really hope that he watches this show someday. I hope so in a few days even. And I have a funny thing to say about that. I was in a summit in Miami and Wkov was there the messenger of the president and I actually caught him in hands and I told him exactly these things in a very few words. I did not have so many minutes but I said it this regime is a liar. These are worse than it was before. Do not negotiate.”

“Iran has now begun to cross red lines in an extremely aggressive manner. When the calendar showed May 17th, the Tehran regime targeted not a military base, not an aircraft carrier, and not even a fighter jet, but precisely the Baraka nuclear facility in the UAE. Moreover, the detail that this attack was carried out not from Iran, but from Iraq, dropped like a bombshell in the news in recent days.”

“Tehran’s proxy forces were likely involved. This move, which took place at a critical moment when the ceasefire was hanging by a thread, created enormous fear at the facility that supplies approximately 25% of the UAE’s total electricity generation. Iran had dared to target the Gulf in an attempt to test the limits of the United States.”

“However, the regime’s attempt at such a ruthless attack in the UAE could trigger a massive military response from the United States. Because this attack has gone down in records as the first military action in which the external electrical connection of a fully operational civilian nuclear power plant was severed, forcing it to rely on backup generators.”

“Official investigations by Emirati authorities determined that three unmanned aerial vehicles entered the country from the western border direction. Advanced air defense systems successfully intercepted and destroyed two of these deadly vehicles in the air. However, the third kamikaze drone that managed to breach the defense line struck a critical electrical generator located just outside the inner perimeter of the Baraka nuclear power plant in Abu Dhabi.”

“Fortunately, precise measurements detected no deviation or leak in radiological safety levels, but the damage was already done and Iran had carried out this kind of ruthless attack in an attempt to show power in the Gulf by playing with the United States’ nerve endings. Washington has now begun sending signals that it could deliver much harsher and more effective military responses against Iran along with the possibility of a second wave of attacks.”

“Strategic Iranian islands including the Strait of Hormuz and Kharg as well as the country’s military and energy facilities could face a similar scene to what happened on February 28th in the near future. Because in recent days, the US Navy and Air Force have been completing all preparations for a possible hammer blow against Iran.”

“The Washington administration, which wants to reinforce the economic blockade with military power, is deploying an unprecedented air and naval force to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. The US presence in the region carries the clearest signs that a possible second wave of attacks against Iran could begin at any moment.”

“A US Navy P-8A Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft changed course over the northern Gulf of Oman and linked up with aerial refueling tankers. KC-46A aircraft conducting strategic flights over the Arabian Sea are maximizing the airborne endurance of American jets in the region. In addition, these advanced surveillance assets that suddenly appeared off the coast of Pakistan prove that the area of military operations has expanded from the Strait of Hormuz to the northern Arabian Sea.”

“Meanwhile, at the center of the naval power in the region are the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS George Bush carrier strike groups. The F-35C Lightning II stealth jets stationed aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln are standing ready to conduct operations at any moment. The USS George Bush carrier is leading the blockade operations with its F/A-18E/F Super Hornet jets at land bases.”

“Dozens of F-15E Strike Eagle fighter jets transferred from the United Kingdom to Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan have been deployed. In addition, fifth generation F-22 Raptor air superiority jets placed at bases in Israel are on alert for a possible dogfight scenario. In addition to all this air power, the Pentagon has also brought F-16 fighter jets into play to strengthen the protection shield over the Strait of Hormuz, the global energy transit route.”

“US Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcon aircraft are conducting uninterrupted air surveillance in the Gulf region, expanding their rapid response capabilities. The F-16 jets are providing direct escort to high-value commercial vessels with their advanced radar systems and precision-guided munitions. The surprises awaiting Iran were not limited to this massive deployment.”

“Because right in the middle of this intense military activity, a major explosion was reported on the strategic Iranian island of Qeshm, located at the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz. In recent days, local residents reported hearing a powerful explosion that shook the island on Tuesday afternoon to official authorities and social media.”

“Qeshm Island, which hosts critical naval bases used by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps to control traffic in the strait, holds strategic importance. In the first hours, the cause of the explosion could not be determined, but it was later claimed to be a controlled demolition operation. The statement claimed that the explosion occurred during the disposal of unexploded ordinance left over from past military conflicts.”

“Although presented as a routine operation, this explosion once again proved how sensitive the military nerve endings in the region have become. The United States in the shadow of this complex situation in Iran announced that the countdown for the Tehran regime has begun. Following the nuclear facility provocation and the regional tensions, US President Donald Trump issued a historic statement.”

“Trump facing journalists at the White House, declared that they had launched a clear military countdown against the Iranian leadership: ‘Well, I I mean, I am saying two or three days, maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday, something, maybe early next week, a limited period of time,’ stating that a limited time had been given until the beginning of next week.”

“The US president emphasized that they would never allow Tehran to possess a new nuclear weapon. Continuing his tough diplomatic tone, Trump said the clock was ticking and reminded them that they were ready to deliver a major blow if they did not sit down at the negotiating table.”

“In fact, according to military intelligence reports, the Pentagon had already approved a massive air strike plan to be carried out on Tuesday. However, the operation was temporarily postponed at the direct request of Gulf allies Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates leaders, because the Gulf countries are seriously concerned that a possible all-out war scenario would completely destroy their own economic and civilian infrastructure.”

“Nevertheless, the Trump administration has conveyed to its counterparts that if no results are achieved through diplomatic channels, the military mechanism will automatically activate. Perhaps Iran did not hesitate to strike the nuclear facility in the UAE for this reason. In other words, the Gulf country’s desire not to want a new war and to correct the dynamics in the region may be being used by the Tehran regime as a ruthless strategy.”

“However, if the Revolutionary Guard targets Abu Dhabi again from Iraq or from within Iranian borders, the situation could change instantly. The Gulf side could abandon its moderate stance and peaceful approach. In such a scenario, Abu Dhabi had already proven during the ceasefire process that it could respond to possible Iranian attacks and if necessary, bring its retaliation capabilities to the forefront.”

“As you may recall, in early April during the announcement of the ceasefire process, the UAE was claimed to have carried out a covert air operation against Iranian territory. The main target of this operation was the strategic oil refinery on Iran’s Lavan Island in the Persian Gulf. It was reported that this massive facility belonging to the National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company was hit in a radical operation by Emirati air assets.”

“It was stated that United Arab Emirates Air Force Mirage 2000 fighter jets and Chinese-made Wing Loong II unmanned aerial vehicles jointly participated in the strike. In this low-profile and covert air raid, a very large fire broke out at the refinery on Lavan Island. The Abu Dhabi administration never officially claimed the attack and described the military activity only as flights to counter Iranian drones.”

“However, the media described the operation against Lavan Island as the harshest retaliation given against the thousands of missiles and drones Iran had launched at the United Arab Emirates throughout the war. In fact, there is truth to that because since February 28th, Iran has carried out between 2,800 and 3,000 drone and missile attacks on the UAE.”

“This disturbing number may have prompted Abu Dhabi to take action and launch a retaliatory step. Now, the question is what kind of effect the targeting of the Baraka nuclear power plant by Iran on May 17th will have on the UAE. So, is Abu Dhabi ready for a possible new wave of attacks from Iran in the coming period? The UAE is currently trying to strengthen not only its offensive potential, but also its defense power.”

“The air defense systems operated by the Emirati army have shown over 90% interception success, drawing the attention of global military authorities. At the top layer of this defense umbrella is the US-made THAAD high-altitude area air defense system. The THAAD system, which operates in the exoatmospheric and terminal phases, has served as the main shield in stopping long-range ballistic missiles launched from Iran.”

“Against medium and low-altitude threats, the UAE army actively used advanced Patriot PAC-3 and PAC-2 systems consisting of 12 batteries. The Patriot batteries, which hold more than 800 interceptor missiles in their inventory, work with hit-to-kill technology that directly destroys enemy elements. In addition, the medium-range KM-SAM Cheongung-2 system procured from South Korea was tested for the first time in the world in real combat during this war.”

“The KM-SAM system achieved an incredible success rate of 96% by hitting 29 different targets in 60 launches throughout the war. Against drone swarms attempting to infiltrate from very low altitudes, Russian-made Pantsir-S1 point defense systems played critical roles. In addition to all these systems, the secret defense cooperation developed with Israel after the Abraham Accords bore fruit in this war.”

“The Israeli government sent its own Iron Dome batteries to the United Arab Emirates as emergency military support during the most intense period of the war. The Iron Dome system and its accompanying munitions were operationally deployed in the United Arab Emirates for the first time in history outside Israeli territory.”

“Several dozen Israeli Defense Forces personnel and technical operators also deployed to the UAE for the installation and operation of the system. The Iron Dome became the UAE’s greatest strength in the short-range layer, especially in destroying low-flying kamikaze drones and cruise missiles. In addition, Israeli origin Barak 8 and SpyDer-ER systems were integrated into the air defense network to close the gaps.”

“Despite all this multinational technological infrastructure, small-scale infiltrations could not be prevented in some attacks carried out by Iran with coordinated and intense drone swarms. In other words, the UAE is aware that it must provide 100% protection in a possible multi-wave attack that Iran could launch.”

“So what are the details that Iran should be aware of? The Tehran regime is determined to send constant messages to the United States by targeting Gulf countries without thinking. But things are not looking very bright for Iran right now. Because in addition to the military dimension of the war, a massive naval blockade is driving the regime toward total economic collapse.”

“Under the blockade led by the United States, all maritime trade routes in the Gulf have been brought under control. The US Navy is patrolling with more than 20 warships to keep the Strait of Hormuz open and prevent Iran’s illicit oil trade. In this operation, naval forces carried out a radical raid in the Indian Ocean in the middle of the night and seized the Iranian-linked oil tanker named Skywave.”

“The vessel in question was added to the international sanctions list in March and had loaded more than 1 million barrels of crude oil from Kharg Island in February. The dark picture for Tehran is not limited to this. Financial and logistical data show that Iran is currently sitting on more than 42 million barrels of crude oil trapped in aging tankers that it cannot move at sea.”

“Due to the strict naval blockade, a full 39 massive tankers have been forced to wait helplessly in open waters without being able to dock at any port. This data represents a 65% increase in Iranian oil trapped and unsold at sea since the start of the war. CENTCOM has so far turned back 88 vessels attempting to violate the blockade and has completely disabled four tankers.”

“Maritime experts report that structural deteriorations have begun in the hulls of these aging vessels that have been waiting in open waters for months. In other words, Iran is facing what can only be described as an economic wreck in this crisis process. It is precisely this dark and desperate economic picture that forms the biggest fault line directly affecting Iran’s military decisions.”

“Every provocative step taken by the revolutionary guard in the Strait of Hormuz or around nuclear facilities in the Gulf is actually an open expression of the desperation created by this economic suffocation. The Tehran regime constantly issues asymmetric threats in order to hide its weakness and create the image that it is still a strong actor at the table.”

“But there is a much more painful, stark reality that the regime insistently does not want to see or accept. If the United States presses the final button for that famous second wave of attacks on the table, Iran’s chances of surviving this new shock are very low. The regime, which already lost a very large portion of its ballistic missile capacity and air defense network in the first wave of war in February, is militarily exhausted in every sense of the word.”

“It is against the nature of things for a state whose economy is completely paralyzed, whose integration into the global system has been severed, whose oil revenues have been reset to zero, and whose military infrastructure has suffered heavy damage to remain standing. It is physically, logistically, and psychologically impossible for such a wrecked structure to resist the all-out destruction operation led by the United States.”

“The possible second phase operation awaiting approval on the Pentagon’s table may not be a standard punishment operation like the previous ones that only targeted military bases or radar stations. On the contrary, this process may have been designed as a definitive finishing strike aimed at erasing the regime’s existential infrastructure, its hidden underground nuclear facilities, its remaining last energy production centers, and its command and control mechanisms from the map.”

“Such a massive, technologically superior and ruthless military blow could leave the Tehran regime, which has already been struggling with internal unrest and sanctions for years, in a state from which it can never recover. It also seems impossible for the current political authority to maintain its control over its own people after such a military defeat.”

“The question of how much the Iranian state mind comprehends this absolute annihilation scenario remains a big mystery for international security experts. However, the dominant military strategy in Washington is not contrary to what is believed based on directly firing weapons and setting the Middle East on fire.”

“While the United States deploys all these massive aircraft carriers, F-22 squadrons, nuclear submarines, and strategic bombers to the region, it does not want to start a new conventional war at all. The main and most fundamental strategy of the White House and the Trump administration is to maximize military deterrence in the field and force Tehran to surrender at the table without firing a single shot.”

“Because a full-scale and uncontrolled war that breaks out in the Persian Gulf would create a huge economic shock wave in global energy markets that neither America nor its allies definitely want. Therefore, instead of using its unmatched military power like a sledgehammer, Washington is trying to break the regime’s resistance by constantly holding that sledgehammer over Tehran’s head.”

“The primary and most vital priority of the United States in this extremely tense process is to turn the current ceasefire environment, which is now hanging by a thread and could collapse at any moment, into a permanent and unshakable peace. The second major and indispensable strategic goal that follows immediately after is to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the lifeblood of global trade, to civilian maritime traffic unconditionally and permanently.”

“As long as the strait remains closed or under Iran’s mine threat, not only Middle Eastern countries, but the entire global supply chain from Asia to Europe will continue to live on the brink of a major disaster. This is exactly what the United States wants to convince Iran to do, to get out of this dark strait, to clear the mines it has laid in the waters, and to silence forever the destructive weapons it is aiming at the Gulf.”

“The only and most rational way to achieve this definite persuasion at the diplomacy table is to place a massive military armada right next to the negotiating table with its barrel pointed directly at Tehran’s heart. If Iran continues its reckless provocations that target Gulf countries, especially the civilian infrastructure or nuclear facilities of the United Arab Emirates, Washington’s strategic patience could be completely exhausted in seconds.”

“The moderate Arab states of the Gulf are currently trying to restrain America’s hawkish wing as much as possible in order to reduce regional tension and protect their own growing economies. However, if a similar attack to the one on the Baraka nuclear power plant causes direct civilian casualties or leads to a regional radiation crisis, the protective peaceful shield on the Riyadh-Doha-Abu Dhabi line will disappear instantly.”

“After that breaking point, there will be no diplomatic or political barriers left in front of the Trump administration and the massive American military machine will begin to turn at an irreversible speed.”

“Iran went on high alert because Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates began acting in unison against the network of threats that Tehran had spread throughout the Gulf for years. On Wednesday, May 20, 2026, the Arabs grew tired of watching militias, drones, missiles, and regional blackmail being used as tools of pressure.”

“The union of these two powers is not aimed at the Iranian people, but at the regime’s machinery, the armed groups that do dirty work, the routes used to intimidate neighbors, and the strategy of attacking from the shadows and then denying responsibility. Iran wanted to divide the Gulf, frighten each nation separately, and keep its adversaries cornered.”

“But now he sees Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates mounting a response that could stifle his regional power from within. What’s left for Teran when his biggest rivals decide to join forces to take down his network of intimidation?”

“Iran’s fear stems from the fact that the union between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi undermines a central piece of its foreign policy. Teran always tried to exploit the differences between the Gulf monarchies.”

“Whenever there was a struggle for influence, diplomatic disagreement, or differing economic calculations, the Iranian regime found an opening to advance. Now the reading changes. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia don’t need to agree on everything to see the same danger. Drones, missiles, militias, and nuclear threats have become common security issues.”

“And when these two nations align, Iran stops facing isolated complaints and starts confronting a bloc capable of curbing its regional power struggles. The Gulf Cooperation Council has already put this idea on paper by stating that the security of the nations in the bloc is indivisible and that attacks against one of them affect them all.”

“This language carries weight because it paves the way for a collective response. It’s no longer just Iran testing in Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, or Manama. Iran is being framed by a group that combines economic power, energy routes, and strategic bases, and direct access to the United States and Europe.”

“The bloc’s extraordinary declaration condemned Iranian missile and drone attacks against Gulf members and reinforced the right of defense of the affected nations. Iran is trying to maintain composure because it knows that publicly backing down would be an admission of weakness. But the regime also understands that its old tactics have been exposed.”

“Previously, the regime could point to allies and say it had no direct control. Now, each action by these groups reinforces the accusation that Tehran operates a regional pressure network. Saudi Arabia enters this dispute with its own weight. Riyadh has religious influence, financial capacity, energy power, and a central position in negotiations with Washington.”

“Iran knows this. Therefore, a Saudi Arabia aligned with the United Arab Emirates represents more than just another voice of condemnation. It represents an axis capable of influencing sanctions, air defense, pressure on neighboring governments, and coordination with Western allies. The discussion itself regarding civilian nuclear cooperation between the United States and Saudi Arabia returned to the news, with Reuters reporting that a pact in this area was still under debate and generating demands for guarantees. This issue bothers Teran because it shows Riyadh pursuing strategic technology while the Iranian program remains shrouded in distrust. The United Arab Emirates are not reacting impulsively either. Abu Dhabi has built an image of stability, technology, trade, and security. Any threat against its infrastructure becomes an international problem.”

“Iran wanted to spread fear, but it helped Abu Dhabi justify a tougher stance. This is the trap that the regime itself set for itself. The European Union also joined the pressure alongside the Gulf Cooperation Council. In a joint statement, ministers from both blocs discussed damage caused by Iranian attacks against Gulf members, including civilian infrastructure, service facilities, and residential areas.”

“The text also called for restraint in Iran’s nuclear program, ballistic missiles, and destabilizing activities in the region. For Teran, this is terrible because it brings the Arab complaint to a larger table and makes it more difficult to maintain the narrative that everything is just a localized conflict. What Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are doing now is trying to curtail Iran’s operational freedom.”

“This involves monitoring drone routes, pressuring governments where militias operate, increasing air defenses, strengthening intelligence, and creating a unified message: any new attack will have a higher political cost. This type of response doesn’t need to start with inflammatory rhetoric; it begins with quiet coordination.”

“Iraq is also at the center of the pressure because some of the suspicions regarding attacks and militia movements involve its territory. For Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, Baghdad is a free corridor for groups that threaten the Gulf. If the Iraqi government fails to control these factions, international pressure mounts.”

“If you can do it, you’ll have to prove it. In any scenario, Iran loses comfort because its allies cease to operate in the shadows and begin to be treated as a regional problem. The March statement by Arab and Islamic ministers demanded that Iran cease attacks, threats, and support for militias in Arab nations, citing funding, weapons, and actions used against the interests of those nations.”

“The Iranian regime is trying to turn threat into power, but the Arab reaction shows a limit. Teran may talk about widespread war, it may threaten trade routes, it may use allies, and it may try to frighten markets. But now each threat helps Riyadh and Abu Dhabi to argue for a firmer response. Logic has turned against Iran.”

“The more pressure it exerts, the more it unites its adversaries. The more he uses militias, the more he strengthens the accusation that he needs to be stopped. The more talk there is about escalation, the more it facilitates closer ties between the Gulf, the United States, and Europe. The Gulf leaders’ meeting in Jeddah at the end of April already pointed in that direction.”

“Mohammed bin Salman met with leaders of the Gulf Cooperation Council to discuss a coordinated response to the Iranian attacks that have rocked the region since the start of the war involving Terã. This type of meeting shows that Saudi Arabia doesn’t just want to react after the damage is done.”

“Riyadh wants to organize a response before the next coup. And when Saudi Arabia assumes this role along with the United Arab Emirates, Iran understands that its room for maneuver is becoming smaller. What happens next is a battle of endurance. Iran must continue trying to intimidate in order not to appear cornered.”

“Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates should expand coordination with the Gulf, demand control over militias, strengthen defense, and keep the issue alive in international forums. The difference is that Teeran no longer controls the pace like he used to. Each threat opens up more space for rivals to show that the problem is not a passing crisis, but an entire structure of regional intimidation.”

“The Iranian panic stems from this turn of events. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are not targeting the Iranian people; they are targeting the regime’s machinery, its armed forces, drones, missiles, intermediaries, and the blackmail that Teran uses to try to control the Gulf.”

The Unfolding Crisis: May 2026

The ultimatum, delivered with the cold precision of a military communique from Washington, hit the Iranian leadership like a physical blow. The clock was not just ticking; it was accelerating. As of the early hours of May 22, 2026, the silence in Tehran was deafening. The streets, once loud with the revolutionary fervor of the IRGC, were filled with a palpable, suffocating anxiety.

“It is over,” whispered a senior analyst within the Iranian foreign ministry, eyes darting toward the portrait of the Supreme Leader. “We spent years building this network, believing that the Americans were too tired, too divided, to ever truly call our bluff. We were wrong. They aren’t bluffing. They are waiting for the final permission to dismantle everything we have built.”

In the White House, the Situation Room hummed with the quiet intensity of a machine prepared to execute its primary function. President Trump sat at the head of the mahogany table, flanked by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Secretary of Defense. The maps spread before them were no longer abstract concepts of power projection; they were target decks.

“We have given them every opportunity to choose the path of diplomacy,” the President remarked, his voice devoid of the usual rhetorical flourish. “They chose to target the Baraka facility. They chose to play with the lives of millions by threatening our allies’ infrastructure. That choice has consequences. The window for negotiation has slammed shut.”

The military machine, positioned with calculated menace across the Gulf of Oman, began the final stage of “Operation Silent Thunder.” The USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS George Bush carrier strike groups, which had been performing simulated strikes for weeks, began to move into designated launch coordinates. The F-35C Lightning IIs, invisible to the eyes of the IRGC’s outdated radar networks, taxied into position on the flight decks.

Back in Tehran, the disconnect between the ruling elite and the reality of their situation became absolute. The IRGC commanders, sequestered in their deep, underground bunkers, continued to issue defiance, but it was a hollow performance. The intelligence gathering from the US and its allies had stripped away their anonymity. The location of every mobile missile launcher, every command node, and every, as Benny Sabti had noted, “fanatic general” was known.

“They think we are hiding,” an officer in the IRGC’s rocket division muttered as he looked at the screens monitoring the electronic warfare jamming that had begun to blanket the region. “But they are not jamming us. They are blinding us. They want us to know that when the first wave comes, we won’t even see the aircraft that deliver the payload.”

In the streets, the Iranian populace, long suppressed by the regime, began to sense the impending fracture. Reports of internal dissent, sparked by the secret polls and the sheer exhaustion of living under the shadow of war, began to spill over into the encrypted messaging apps. The regime’s attempt to arm civilians had backfired. Instead of creating a unified front of resistance, the distribution of weapons had only provided the tools for the regime’s eventual opposition.

“Why are they giving us rifles?” asked a student in central Tehran, standing in a long, desperate line for bread. “They are not for the Americans. They are for the day the regime falls, so we can defend our homes from the chaos that will follow.”

The geopolitical calculations of the great powers were also undergoing a seismic shift. In Beijing, President Xi Jinping observed the developments with cold pragmatism. The promises made to Trump regarding the cessation of arms transfers were being honored—not out of ideological alignment with the West, but because the cost of supporting a sinking ship, especially one that threatened to destabilize the global energy supply, was too high.

Russia, similarly, found its position untenable. The intelligence sharing with Tehran, which had served to complicate American operations, was now being scrutinized by the White House. The Kremlin knew that if a full-scale conflagration erupted in the Gulf, the oil price volatility would threaten their own economic recovery efforts, already fragile after years of sanctions. Moscow began to quietly withdraw its active support, signaling to the IRGC leadership that they were, in fact, “on their own.”

“We are entering a new phase,” the Russian envoy in Tehran was overheard saying during a tense dinner with an Iranian official. “The era of the ‘Axis of Resistance’ acting with impunity is over. You have brought the world to the brink, and the world has decided that you are the cost of its stability.”

The atmosphere in the Saudi and Emirati capitals was one of cautious, resolute hardening. The coalition they had formed was no longer just a defensive pact on paper. The intelligence sharing, the integration of air defense systems like the Iron Dome, and the shared logistical nightmare of securing the Strait of Hormuz had forged a military synergy that exceeded their own expectations.

“We are not the same countries we were three months ago,” a high-ranking UAE official commented to his Saudi counterpart during an emergency meeting in Riyadh. “We are no longer waiting for the Americans to solve our security problems. We are partners in the solution. If the IRGC tries to retaliate against us, they will find that the defense we have built is not a wall, but a hammer.”

As the clock struck the start of the weekend, the tension reached a crescendo. The US administration’s rhetoric shifted from “negotiation” to “readiness.” The Pentagon briefing rooms were filled with the hum of activity. The “second wave” that analysts had spoken of—the punitive strike intended to strip the regime of its ability to project power—was no longer a threat; it was a scheduled event.

“This will not be a ground war,” a Pentagon spokesperson stated, emphasizing the strategic doctrine. “It will be a surgical dismantling. We are removing the capacity for the Iranian regime to terrorize its neighbors and its own people. We are restoring the Strait of Hormuz to the global community.”

The final moments before the commencement of the operations were marked by a frantic, disjointed attempt by the Iranian Foreign Ministry to reach out, to plead, to negotiate—but the lines were largely unresponsive. The international community, weary of the extortion, the threats, and the brinkmanship, had turned its back.

The first strike was not a mass missile barrage, but a sudden, synchronized blackout of the IRGC’s command-and-control network. The electromagnetic pulse and the precision cyber-attacks that followed rendered the regime’s communication channels ineffective within seconds. The “ghost” generals, who had operated from the shadows, suddenly found their hideouts illuminated by the very technology they had failed to anticipate.

Across the region, the world watched as the narrative of the last several months—the threats, the hostage-taking of the shipping lanes, the drone attacks—reached its inevitable conclusion. It wasn’t the total destruction of the nation of Iran, but the systemic destruction of the apparatus that had held the country captive to an ideology of perpetual conflict.

In the aftermath, the question for the region, and indeed for the world, was not how it had ended, but what would be rebuilt in the vacuum left by the collapse of the IRGC’s power. The “day after” scenarios, long debated by think tanks, were now the primary concern of the transition committees being formed in the halls of international diplomacy.

The Iranian people, watching their regime falter, faced the greatest test. The path ahead was uncertain, fraught with the risks of instability and the challenges of national reconstruction. But for the first time in decades, the grip of the revolutionary machinery had been broken. The fear, once the regime’s most potent weapon, had evaporated, replaced by a cautious, dawning hope that perhaps, just perhaps, the era of extortion was truly over.

The geopolitical landscape of the Middle East had been irrevocably altered. The “Axis of Resistance” was in tatters, replaced by a new, emerging reality where the nations of the Gulf, supported by the global community, held the keys to their own security. The Strait of Hormuz, once the bottleneck of global fear, was reopened, and for the first time in years, the flow of commerce and the flow of energy moved without the threat of the revolutionary iron hand.

The world held its breath as the dust settled, awaiting the first signs of the new Iran—an Iran that would have to reconcile with its own past, its people, and the neighbors it had spent so long trying to intimidate. The strike was over, but the work of peace had just begun.

“They did it,” whispered the Iranian student in Tehran, watching the city skyline as the dawn of a new day broke over the horizon. “They actually did it. The regime is gone. Now, we finally have to decide who we are.”

The international observers in the region noted a strange, eerie calm. The military build-up, the massive deployment of forces, and the high-stakes diplomatic pressure had achieved the impossible: it had forced a regime that thrived on chaos to finally confront the reality of its own obsolescence. The path forward was narrow, difficult, and full of uncertainty, but the sheer, crushing weight of the previous months had lifted.

In the final assessment, the events of May 2026 would go down in history not just as a military success, but as a strategic correction. The lesson for future generations was clear: the stability of the global order cannot be held hostage by the desperate calculations of a failing regime. The era of the “loudest ceasefire” had ended, and in its place, the world hoped, a durable, tangible peace would take root—provided, of course, that those who built it had the courage to sustain it.