The War in the Strait of Hormuz
The war in the Strait of Hormuz is now starting again. Just this morning, Iranian ships attempted to break the US blockade and failed spectacularly. US aircraft neutralized the ships, so they can no longer even move. And now Iranian officials are crying, saying that the United States is trying to derail the negotiations.
The U.S. military carried out more airstrikes this morning, hitting several empty oil tankers that were trying to break through the U.S. blockade. This comes on top of yesterday’s attacks, where the United States destroyed Iranian missile and drone depots located on the coast of the Strait of Hormuz. Before we get into what happened this morning, let’s take a quick look at what happened last night.
Here on the map you can see all the areas that the United States targeted yesterday. These include the port of Bandar Abbas, which is a very important port, and the island of Kesm, which is an island that Iran basically uses to monitor what happens in the Strait of Hormus. And then, of course, Bandarkangan and Gueruk.
According to the official statement, Thursday’s US attacks hit Iran’s drone launch sites, as well as its coastal defense cruise missile sites and radars. In fact, initially, the United States had no plans to do all this, as it respected the ceasefire. However, when the US warships approached the Strait of Hormus, Iran began launching missiles, drones, and small boats at the warships.
It was then that the United States retaliated and carried out defensive attacks so that Iran could not attack other ships and other American warships in the future. Here, Secretary of State Marco Rubio explains why these attacks were necessary. Listen.
“Irhip fire stupid countries don’t shoot back when you’re shot at a stupid country. Well, the red line is clear. They threaten Americans, they’re going to get blown up. I mean, that’s the one that’s how much clear can you be than that? If you fire on if you are a missile launching guy, whatever they call that job, and you’re sitting there and you fire a missile at the United States and we saw you fire it, we’re going to hit you. Of course, we are. Who doesn’t do that? Unless you want to get your ship sunk. We’re not going to let our ships get sunk by the Iranians with their little, you know, their drones that they’re firing. You know, they don’t have a Navy anymore, but they bring out these little Boston Whale or fishing boats and they try to swarm you. We’re going to blow those boats up if they’re coming towards our boats. I don’t know if that’s a red line, but I hope they know it is by now. Iranians on you, you probably won’t survive. I think that ‘s a red line.”
Now, the funniest part of this whole situation is that all this time Iranian politicians have been saying:
“Hey, we don’t want to negotiate, we’re winning this war.”
And the moment the United States attacks whatever they have, they no longer have a navy, they have small boats, as Marco Rubio just said, and they have some drone sites and grass fields.
“And guys, I thought we were negotiating. Why are they attacking us during the negotiations?”
This is exactly what happened with the statement by the Iranian Foreign Minister, which came immediately after this attack. Take a look.
“Whenever there is a diplomatic solution on the table, the United States opts for a reckless military adventure. It’s a crude pressure tactic or the result of a saboteur, dragging the president into the mud once again, whatever the reasons, the result is the same. The Iranians never give in to pressure.”
Furthermore, in this statement he made, he goes on to say the following in this image he shared, that the CIA was wrong.
“Our missile inventory and launcher capacity are not at the 75% level compared to February 28. The correct figure is 120%. As for our willingness to defend our people, that rate is 1000%.”
If Iran’s capability is at 120%, meaning they have more missiles in their hands compared to when the war began, why was Iran slowing down missile launches towards the end of the war? Why were they stockpiling missiles while their capacity increased every day? So it’s very simple. The words that come out of the mouths of Iranian officials do not match the actions they took during the war. Speaking personally, I care more about what Iranians do than what they say.
Then, after last night’s statement, we find that the Iranians attacked the UAE for the second or perhaps the third time Iran has attacked the UAE since the ceasefire began. Fortunately, all the missiles and drones that Iran fired were shot down, but according to the Erebo-Eau Defense Ministry, debris injured three people. They also note that since the start of the war, UAE air defenses have shot down around 500 ballistic missiles, 30 cruise missiles and more than 2,200 aircraft, resulting in more than 200 people being injured.
On the other hand, the US air defenses are holding up very, very well. Do you know how we know this? Well, all the Gulf countries are buying these air defenses at a record pace. This is a topic that is blocked in the mainstream media and on some social media platforms. YouTube’s algorithm also considers this topic risky, but I don’t care. I will continue to tell you the facts with the most accurate data.
Look at this. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has approved $25 billion for the urgent sale of weapons to Bahrain, Israel, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE. This figure is triple the $8.6 billion initially announced. The package includes a large number of Patriot missile interceptors, but delivery is said to be potentially years away due to limited US production capacity. There is more demand for this than the actual supply we have.
As for Iran, the bad news never ends. Take a look at what Central Command posted this morning. Currently, there are more than 70 oil tankers that US forces are preventing from entering or leaving Iranian ports. These commercial vessels have the capacity to transport 166 million barrels of Iranian oil worth an estimated $13 billion. Due to the US blockade, Iran is being deprived of billions of dollars in oil revenue, which it desperately needs at a time like this.
And of course, besides money, another thing Iran needs is more oil storage capacity. That’s why they want some of these empty tankers in international waters to return to Iranian ports and for Iran to use them as floating oil storage, meaning they can load oil onto these tankers and wait. This gives Iran more breathing room, and if they can obtain more storage, they won’t have to shut down their oil fields.
Otherwise, if they have to shut down their oil fields, it means they could lose a lot of money and oil revenue in the future. Do you know what happened? The United States blockade also targets this specific situation. Just this morning, two ships, two oil tankers, were trying to return to Iranian ports to load oil, but unfortunately they were unable to overcome the US blockade. Look at this statement.
“US forces disabled the Siastar 3 and Savida oil tankers on May 8, before both vessels entered an Iranian port in the Gulf of Oman in violation of the ongoing US blockade. The Central Command implemented blocking measures against two empty Iranian-flagged oil tankers attempting to dock at an Iranian port. A US Navy F18 Super Hornet that took off from the USS George Hatch Ubush disabled both tankers by dropping precision-guided munitions into their funnels, preventing the offending vessels from entering Iran.”
In fact, I believe the image you are seeing on your screens is what they posted. Beyond this, on May 6, US forces also disabled the Iranian-flagged Hassan oil tanker, which was attempting to reach an Iranian port in the Gulf of Oman. And again they used an F18 Super Hornet from the SS Abraham Lincoln. They fired a few shots from their 20mm cannon and disabled the rudders of the unloaded tanker. The three ships will no longer cross to Iran. For the Iranian regime, this is a big problem because they need the tankers to return so they can fill them with oil even if they are empty.
Apparently, the situation in the country is becoming so desperate that they are resorting to dumping oil into the ocean. We have some evidence that this is already happening, but before we move on to that. Now let’s look at these satellite images. According to satellite images examined by Reuters, a large and suspicious oil spill has been detected near the export hub of Cark Island in Iran. Investigators say the spill covers an area of approximately 45 km² west of Carg Island, the terminal that handles approximately 90% of Iran’s oil exports.
The cause of the spill is still unknown as tensions continue in the Gulf amid clashes between US and Iranian forces and ongoing naval blockades. Now, I’m not an oil expert and I ‘m not sure if this is a mistake or intentional. All I know is that Iran is running out of storage space and, you know, they need some way to dissipate this pressure, they need a way to relieve this pressure. And now we’re seeing this again. To argue against my own assertion, many clashes are taking place in the Strait of Hormus. Therefore, it could clearly be a mistake. Only time will tell what this is all about. If we continue to see more and more oil in the ocean, I think we can safely say that this is not a mistake.
This could be a new strategy for Iran to avoid having to close its oil fields. Now, to combat all this, Iran has tried to attack ships or even confiscate ships in the Strait of Hormuz or in the Persian Gulf. But unfortunately, even this isn’t going according to plan. Yesterday Iran attacked an oil tanker that turned out to be a Chinese oil tanker, and now China is very angry about this situation. Take a look at their statements.
“China said that some of its citizens were among the crew of the oil tanker that was attacked near the Strait of Hormuz this week. The Foreign Ministry spokesman said the Chinese crew was on board the ship that was hit by Iran on Monday. From this moment on, it is reported that there are no deaths or injuries among the crew. Beijing warned that the escalation of hostilities between Iran and the United States has disrupted one of the most critical maritime corridors. China is deeply concerned because many ships and crews have been trapped in the strait for months.”
Do you know what happened this morning? The situation worsened even further. The Iranian navy has just seized a Chinese oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman. According to the Iranian press, which published a video of the entire operation, the captured oil tanker was called Ocean Coy. This ship was actually carrying Iranian oil when it was captured by the Iranian navy and also belonged to Ocean Kudo, a Shanghai-based shipping company that is actually sanctioned by the United States.
So I have no idea what’s going on . I don’t understand if this is just Iran trying to look tough by sanctioning one of its own oil tankers, or if there’s something else going on that we do n’t know about. However, what Iran did is positive for the United States. They are confiscating a sanctioned oil tanker belonging to a Chinese company that is transporting Iranian oil. I mean, these are very suspicious things, but I’m not sure what’s happening from this point on. It seems to me that this is Iran flexing its muscles falsely or simply sending a message by seizing one of its own ships and telling other tankers and cargo ships:
“Hey, don’t go through the Strait of Hormuz or we might seize your ship just like we did with this one.”
This is Iran’s way of saying to the world:
“Hey, the Strait of Hormus is under Iran’s control, under Iran’s sovereignty as part of its own territory,”
When in reality this is not something that other countries in the world are willing to accept, not only the United States, but also other European countries and, of course, other Asian countries. Listen to Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s speech on this topic.
“Iran claims that they have a right to control an international waterway. They claim that they have a right to control it. What is the world going to do about that? Is the world going to accept that Iran now controls an international waterway? Because if you accept that be ready to start doing the same things.”
I do n’t understand why nobody supports him, and he understands it well, so I assume he will support him. But here’s a more fundamental problem. Iran now claims that it has the right to control an international waterway and that it belongs to it. They claim they have the right to control it because what has happened in the Strait of Hormus in the last 24 hours has revealed that Iran is no longer waging a classic naval war, but is behaving like a regime trying to breathe.
In the morning hours, several Iranian-flagged oil tankers attempted to break through the de facto US naval blockade across the Gulf of Oman. However, the result was a complete disaster. US F18 Super Hornet fighter jets disabled the tankers called Ca Star 3 and Savida that were trying to return to Iran by hitting them with precision munitions. The ships did not sink because the objective was to send a message. They were immobilized. In other words, the United States was saying:
“This corridor is no longer under your control.”
This detail is very important because Iran’s biggest problem in the war is no longer the lack of missiles, it is the fact that it cannot sell its oil. The regime is currently feeling the effects of economic strangulation more than the military dimension of the war. According to the latest statement from Sencom, US forces have effectively blocked more than 70 oil tankers that are unable to enter or leave Iranian ports. The total cargo capacity of these tankers is approximately 166 million barrels of oil. Its value is around $1 billion.
In other words, the lifeblood of Iran’s economy has been directly handcuffed. And that is why Iran’s behavior is becoming increasingly irrational, because its internal storage capacity is running out. Oil production continues, but it cannot be exported. The tanks are filling up, the ports are blocked. If production sites are shut down , this is not just a short-term loss of income; it could mean long-term damage to some wells. This is one of the biggest fears for Iran’s oil system.
That is why satellite images analyzed by Reuters in the last 24 hours revealed an extremely surprising development. A massive oil spill of approximately 45 km² was detected near Carg Island. Is this the result of an attack, a technical failure, or a deliberate download? No one can say for sure, but the timing is very noteworthy because Iran’s storage capacity is approaching a critical level. If oil tankers cannot return to ports and oil cannot be loaded, the regime may be trying to reduce pressure on the system by releasing oil into the sea in a controlled manner rather than slowing down production.
If this is true, it means that we have entered a new phase of this war. An Iran that risks environmental disaster in order to breathe economically. And while all this is happening, the propaganda language of the Teerán administration has begun to further contradict the reality on the ground. The Iranian Foreign Minister made the statement:
“Our missile capability has reached 120% of the pre-war level.”
But at the same time, why is Iran trying to carry out swarm attacks with small boats and drones on Ormus? Why does it have to prove the US blockade in order to return its oil tankers to ports? If capability is truly increasing, why has the density of missile salvos decreased significantly compared to the early days of the war? Because the reality on the battlefield tells a different story.
Marco Rubio’s statements made this very clear. Rubio openly stated:
“We will attack any ship that approaches US vessels.”
This is no longer classical deterrence language. This means the rules of engagement in the Gulf of Ormus have completely changed. Swarms of small speedboats, Camicase drones, and Iranian coastal missile sites are now considered instant targets by the United States.
And in the last 24 hours, the US has begun constructing a new military architecture, not only at sea but throughout the Gulf. The approval of the sale of a new Patriot air defense system for a total of $25 billion to Bahin, Qatar, Kuwait, Israel, and the UAE is proof of this. This figure is approximately three times the amount initially planned. In other words, the Gulf countries are now preparing for the possibility of a protracted regional war , not a temporary crisis.
An even more dangerous development for Iran is occurring on the Chinese front, because Tehran’s aggressive tanker policy in recent days has begun to unsettle even Beijing. The attack by Iranian forces on a Chinese-linked oil tanker and the subsequent seizure of another Chinese-linked tanker in the Arabian Sea have raised alarm in Beijing. This situation is highly critical because, until now, Iran has viewed China as a strategic economic lifeline. But now, gripped by the fear of war, Iran is jeopardizing even China’s energy supply lines, further deepening its diplomatic isolation.
More importantly, the tanker Iran seized was actually carrying Iranian oil. This is an incredible situation. The regime is now experiencing such a loss of control that it is attacking even Chinese-linked tankers carrying its own oil, and even other tankers. This is a sign of a loss of coordination and strategic blindness. It paints a picture of a structure acting not with a sense of national responsibility, but with a sense of panic.
