Iran has resumed attacks on US-linked targets in Iraq, while new explosions have been reported in sensitive areas of Iranian territory. On Thursday, May 7, 2026, the crisis intensifies because attacks in northern Iraq have targeted facilities linked to Kurdish groups supported by Washington.
All this is happening even amidst negotiations aimed at preventing a new wave of US bombings against the Iranian regime.
Reports indicate that Iranian drones struck an area north of Herbil in Iraqi Kurdistan, where members and family members linked to the PDI, an Iranian Kurdish opposition group in exile, live. Initial reports indicate injuries, but a definitive death toll has not yet been given. The key point is that Teiran didn’t choose that target by chance.
The Kurdish region of Iraq has become an area of pressure against the Iranian regime because it harbors opposition groups that have been accused of acting with external support. By attacking there, the Revolutionary Guard is sending a direct message. Any force that helps Washington or puts pressure on the regime from within will be treated as a target.
The attack also exposes a dangerous flaw for the United States. Washington is trying to keep Oxafogo alive, attempting to negotiate the reopening of the Strait of Hormus, and trying to prevent the war from escalating further. But Iran is taking advantage of this hesitation to attack allies, test defenses, and gauge how far it can advance without receiving a devastating response.
That’s when the situation gets serious. In western Tehran and also in nearby areas in southern Iran, explosions and air defense activations increased the climate of panic. The Anadolu Agency reported that Iranian media attributed the sounds of explosions near the island of Khufu to the activation of air defense systems against small drones and unmanned reconnaissance aircraft.
Iranian authorities said there was no damage to the island, but the mere activation of air defenses shows that Tehran is also under pressure and fears further incursions into areas connected to the Strait of Hormuz. Iraq has been used several times as a pressure zone between the United States and Iran, but each new attack increases the likelihood of a harsher American response.
In January 2020, following the death of Kassen Suleimani in a US attack in Baghdad, Iran fired missiles at the Ain Assad base and at a facility in the Kurdish region. Initially, Washington said there were no casualties, but later American service members were treated for traumatic brain injuries. This precedent weighs heavily now.
In 2020, Tehran attacked to save its own honor after Suleimani’s death, but avoided directly killing large numbers of American soldiers because it knew that drawing a red line could provoke open war. In 2026, the situation is more dangerous because there is already a war underway, there is already a blockade, there are already ships being hit, there is already direct conflict in the Strait of Hormous, and there is already pressure on American bases in various parts of the Middle East.
What was once a calculated retaliation now looks like a strategy of permanent attrition. The Boston Post published an investigation with satellite imagery indicating that Iranian attacks caused far greater damage to American military installations in the Middle East than had been publicly acknowledged. The analysis identified at least 228 damaged or destroyed structures or pieces of equipment at American bases, including hangars, living quarters, fuel depots, aircraft, radar systems, and air defense equipment.
Deaths and over 400 injuries since the start of the war were also cited. This data changes the magnitude of the crisis. Iran does not appear merely as a regime making empty threats. He appears as an enemy who has managed to exploit weaknesses in fixed bases, use drones, attack infrastructure, and erode the image of American invulnerability.
This does not mean that Teran is winning an open war against the United States. Therefore, the American reaction now needs to be calculated, but also firm. Without a clear answer, the Iranian regime tends to interpret silence as weakness. The history of the Gulf shows that Iran usually backs down when it realizes that the military cost has become too high.
In 1988, during the so-called Tanker Wars, the United States launched Operation Prinetes against Iranian targets. The operation targeted platforms used for military purposes and Iranian ships, making it one of the largest American naval actions since World War II. The difference is that today war is not waged solely with ships and traditional missiles.
Iran uses cheap drones, militias, scattered attacks, and economic pressure. This combination allows the regime to attack without always bearing the full cost of the climb. This has been the case in attacks against American troops in Iraq and Syria in recent years. Heuters reported that Iranian-backed groups have attacked US forces in the region more than 150 times since October 2023.
And Washington has responded at different times with attacks against facilities used by militias linked to Tehran. Examples from other nations reinforce the same pattern. When Iranian-backed groups attacked Saudi Arabia in Abikih in 2019, the global energy market felt the impact immediately, because a single action against oil infrastructure was enough to frighten buyers and governments.
When the ro, also linked to the Iranian axis, began attacking ships in the Red Sea, several companies changed routes, increased costs, and exposed how militias can affect world trade without possessing a traditional navy. Now, in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is trying to apply the same logic on a larger scale. It is attacking the support network around Americans.
This network includes Kurdish groups, logistics bases, local forces, and governments that accept Washington’s military presence. The goal is to instill in every American ally apprehensive about the cost of remaining loyal to the United States. It’s a war of nerves designed to isolate Washington and turn every base into a potential target.
The problem for Iran is that this game could also unite adversaries. Israel is closely monitoring the crisis because any weakening of American pressure could give a boost to the Iranian nuclear program and to Tehran’s allies in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. France has moved its aircraft carrier Charles Gigol toward the Red Sea, preparing for a possible European mission to assist with maritime security when conditions allow.
Eran is betting that it can withstand the tension for longer than Washington. This is the riskiest part of the crisis.
