Military Uprising in Iran: Mass Surrenders and Internal Collapse
The streets of Tehran are in turmoil. Large crowds have taken to the streets, but they are not opponents of the regime. These are the regime’s own supporters, and their anger is not directed outward. Welcome to Military Chronicle. Let’s begin. Because the people who govern Iran did something unforgivable in their eyes. They surrendered.
At least millions of the regime’s supporters think so. And a regime that said we would never go backwards in 47 years only backed down with a single tweet. Politicians turn their backs on each other. The army labels the negotiators as traitors. Clergymen fear that the guardians of the revolution have taken control of the state, and the information that has emerged goes beyond what they feared. Iran is no longer governed by an elected government, but by a three-person committee of IRGC origin.
April 17. Iran’s Foreign Minister Arachi shared this on X:
“The passage of all commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz has been fully restored and the situation has been resolved from within.”
The Strait of Hormuz became Iran’s last card. The longer the strait remains closed, the higher oil prices will rise. Rising prices are putting pressure on Trump, and this pressure has given Iran a seat at the table. Arachi burned that card with a single tweet. Without an agreement, there is no guarantee behind it. Trump’s reaction made things worse. He said the blockade continued and that they didn’t care what Iran did.
On the same day, Trump announced that we had reached an agreement that they would not continue with the enrichment. It no longer mattered whether that statement was true. The important thing was that many figures in the regime considered it false or a betrayal and were left in shock. In other words, he played the Iran card and received nothing in return. The blockades continue. The economy is collapsing. There is no peace agreement. And for millions of supporters of the regime, this scene had only one name: surrender.
From that moment on, Iran was plunged into a three-way civil war. Now let’s look at it from the inside because the three fronts are against each other. On the main front, the IRGC is against the government. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has questioned the diplomatic branch from the beginning. IRGC-linked media outlets accused Arachi of treason and disloyalty, stigmatizing him as a diplomat of the JCPOA, i.e., as the architect of Obama’s 2015 agreement. One stern commentator on state television openly stated:
“Arachi showed flexibility in negotiations to reduce financial and military support to Hezbollah.”
And since then he has not been seen or heard. On the second front, the clergy and the deputies are against the leadership. MP Morteza Mahmoudi openly stated that he would have had to resign if it weren’t for the wartime conditions. He accused him of making ill-timed statements that repeatedly calmed global oil markets at delicate moments.
The hardline faction in Parliament went further, declaring that the IRGC’s 10 negotiation demands were non-negotiable and that Hezbollah and the allies would never be abandoned. But the anger of the clergy is not directed only at the diplomats, it is also directed at the IRGC itself. Because as the guardians of the revolution effectively control the State, the clergy are losing their historical reasons for existing. If an IRGC-based committee can govern the country without the clergy, the theocracy becomes a mere facade, and the clergy are neither in power nor able to oppose it. They are completely trapped.
Former Minister of Culture, Ayatollah Mousavi, interpreted the situation from another angle:
“If the National Security Council does not intervene at critical moments, we will suffer great damage in the psychological warfare.”
The former minister of the regime openly stated that Iran had not only lost the military war, but also the propaganda war. The third front is the streets, and everyone is against him. And this is the most dangerous, because the people in the street are not enemies of the regime, they are the base of the regime. For years they believed in the motto “we will never back down.” They sent their children to the front, endured embargoes, and accepted all of this as the price for standing up to the “Great Satan.” And now they see that those people who never paid the price are withdrawing.
And there is a fourth layer that fuels this three-front war. The root of the anger in the streets is not just surrender. This is a topic that is blocked in the mainstream media and on some social networks. For six weeks the US blockade has been disrupting daily life in Iran. In Tehran, power outages last up to 12 hours a day. The lines for fuel stretch for kilometers. Food prices have increased by more than 40%. The shortage of medicines is affecting hospitals. Cancer treatments have been stopped. Chronic patients have no medication. The ATMs are empty. Small shops are closing. There are families who cannot send their children to school. There is no fuel for transportation.
President Pezeshkian reportedly told IRGC commanders:
“If there is no ceasefire, the economy will completely collapse in three or four weeks.”
And ordinary Iranians ask:
“Why are we paying this price?”
For years the regime has talked about the resistance economy. “We are self-sufficient. We don’t need the West.” But the blockade exposed the resistance economy as a fairy tale. It functioned as a slogan. But in the kitchen, the pharmacy, and the gas station of the average person, that slogan no longer had any meaning.
In Iran’s budget for 2026 to 2027, the share of oil revenues fell from 32% to 5%. The lowest level since the 1960s. As compensation, taxes have increased by more than 60%. The State systematically reduced foreign currency obligations and switched to direct subsidies in rials, which economists call inflationary financing. The state is stealing from the pockets of its own people.
The shock of surrender in April 2026 was not a beginning. This was the final blow that came at the regime’s weakest moment. In the last week of December 2025, the Iranian rial reached a record low against the dollar. One dollar reached 1.5 million rials. This was the biggest uprising in Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. It spread to more than 200 cities and reached all 31 provinces. Millions were in the streets and this time the slogans were different. They shouted:
“Death to the dictator!”
pointing directly at the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The regime responded with weapons. On January 8 and 9, security forces opened fire and killed thousands of people. And beneath these protests lies a structural breakdown that has been building for years.
“Lean on it. Don’t worry, brother. Now is the time to rise up and overthrow the Islamic Republic. Long live the Shah of Iran!”
Iran surrenders, and this time the rhetoric of resistance cannot hide the collapse. For years they managed to evade sanctions, avoid wars, and break isolation. This resilience became Tehran’s strongest card against the world, but that card has already slipped through their fingers. President Pezeshkian appeared on national television to acknowledge the country’s energy crisis and ask citizens to accept living in darkness and reduce their electricity and energy consumption.
“Right now we don’t need the sacrifices of these valuable people, but we must control consumption. What’s wrong with turning on two lights instead of one at home?”
But the darkness is not only in the houses. The dams have dried up, the market shelves have emptied, the factories have closed, the ports are at a standstill, the country is on the verge of fragmentation, and the Tehran regime only wants its people to make sacrifices to postpone this collapse. To understand Pezeshkian’s desperate plea, we must first see how Iran got to this point, and the answer is hidden in two words: External blockage, internal collapse.
For years, Iran used the Strait of Hormuz as a threat to close off access to the world. This threat worked. A quarter of the world’s oil passes through this strait and no one could corner Iran in that way because everyone would pay the price. The United States has changed the rules of the game. It deployed a large naval force on Hormuz and closed its own ports. When the embargo began, Iran’s maritime trade effectively ended. Grains, oil, medicines, spare parts, everything that came from abroad was cut off. Most food imports stopped. Iran had wanted to use Hormuz as a weapon against the world. The United States has strangled Iran in the same strait.
This external pressure alone was destructive enough. But this is the real tragedy of Iran. The internal infrastructure was already collapsing before the lockdown. The war only accelerated this. Years of drought, regime corruption in water management, illegal well drilling, excessive agricultural irrigation.
“Some nights we may have to reduce the water pressure to zero while the residents are sleeping. This measure will help prevent water waste. However, this may upset some people, so we are asking citizens to install water storage tanks.”
The network, known among the people as the “water mafia,” had corroded Iran’s energy system from within. Most of the large dams had fallen to less than one-tenth of their capacity. Tehran’s main water source was almost dry. The city began discussing “Day Zero,” the day the water will run out completely. Hydroelectric production was cut in half. Normally, thermal power plants fueled by gas and oil would fill this gap, but the attacks by the United States and Israel targeted large gas fields and oil pipelines like the one in South Pars.
And this door also closed. The regime turned to diesel generators, but due to the blockade, diesel was not arriving either, and these two crises fed off each other. Blockades cut off fuel supplies from the outside, while drought killed hydroelectric power on the inside. When the reservoirs ran out of water, even the cooling water for thermal power plants decreased. Each alternative collided with the collapse of the other.
Iran’s energy system has entered a vicious cycle. Pezeshkian’s call is a product of this vicious cycle. Although there is no total nationwide blackout, severe restrictions and scheduled outages are being implemented. In many cities, homes receive electricity for only 4 to 8 hours a day. There has been a serious imbalance between industrial facilities and households. And the first and most affected by these restrictions are the ports, the vital arteries of Iran.
The country’s largest commercial port, Shahid Rajaee, handled 85% of container traffic. Electric cranes, night lighting, cold storage rooms, all depend on energy. When the cuts began, operations slowed down between 40% and 60%. The shifts of tens of thousands of port workers were interrupted for hours. Thousands of people were temporarily laid off or sent on unpaid leave.
When the ports shut down, the wave spread to truckers. Iran’s 365,000 registered truck drivers formed the backbone of the country’s economy. Daily routes were extended by between 20 and 40% or were cancelled altogether. Fuel pump systems at service stations operate on electricity. During the disruptions, drivers had to wait in line for hours. Cargo transport from Bandar Abbas has stopped completely. The cold chain was broken. Tons of perishable products were wasted. Drivers faced the same darkness, both at work and at home. The loss of income and the power cuts in homes hit at the same time, and the paralysis was not limited to logistics alone.
The industry also came to a standstill. The Mobarakeh steel plant, Iran’s largest in Isfahan, was completely shut down following the strikes and tens of thousands of workers were sent home. Steel was a basic input for the automotive and construction industries. The chain reaction of job losses puts between 10 and 12 million people at risk. And Bitcoin mining, Iran’s most creative tool for evading sanctions, has also plummeted. The country earned billions of dollars annually by providing between 2% and 8% of Bitcoin’s global hash rate. The mining equipment consumed almost 2000 MW of electricity. The regime was stealing this energy from civilians. Power outages shut down mining farms. The $7.8 billion crypto ecosystem has ground to a halt. The regime has lost this source that it used to finance the war.
Iran’s economic lifelines are being cut one by one, and those paying the highest price for this economic paralysis are ordinary Iranians. Inflation soared to 105%. Food prices increased by 72% in one year. Water outages lasted from 12 to 18 hours a day. Families are getting by with candles and lanterns. Since the refrigerators are not working, the food is spoiling. There is no drinking water because the pumps have stopped. The crime rate has increased due to the lack of street lighting. Women and children cannot access even the most basic necessities. Schools have transitioned to distance learning, but without electricity at home, distance learning became impossible.
And this situation did not form overnight. Ordinary Iranians were already struggling with inflation that ranged between 40% and 50% before the war. Real wages had been eroding for a long time. Food prices increased every year. Under this pressure, the most oppressed groups suffered the most. Dockworkers, truck drivers, and factory workers were already fighting for their existence. In the 2025 port explosion, dozens of people lost their lives due to the regime’s negligence. Drivers had been struggling for years with poor road safety and low freight rates.
The war and the blockade were the final straw that broke the camel’s back for these chronic problems. This anger is not new. In May 2025, a strike by 365,000 truckers, triggered solely by rising insurance and fuel prices, spread to 155 cities and paralyzed the supply chain. Energy sector workers and port employees participated in protests that lasted from 2025 to 2026. Historically, truckers’ and port workers’ strikes have triggered broader popular movements. The regime is very familiar with this pattern.
Now the war and the siege are deepening this pent-up anger even further. The regime presents it as a national sacrifice, but for the people these words mean official approval of lost income, darkness, and hunger. The Iranian regime has managed to suppress the uprisings in the past, between 2019 and 2022, and from 2025 to 2026, with thousands of arrests, hundreds of deaths, internet shutdowns, and military patrols by the IRGC and Basij forces. In the short term, it has the ability to keep workers under control. Thank you for watching Military Chronicle.
