The Islamic Republic told its people for 47 years that no enemy could destroy them. They repeated incessantly who had survived the sanctions, who had survived the murders and even that they had survived the 12 day war with Israel. This survival status was the only justification for sacrifices required by the Guard Corps Revolutionary, the money it consumed and the oppression he exerted on his own town.
Then yesterday, on the eleventh day of the US naval blockade, the Islamic Republic of Iran appeared in national television and asked his citizens who ate less and used less electricity. I’m not kidding. We’ll delve into all of this shortly. This was not a statement of defiance or anything like that. It was a plea of the regime to its people so that they could eat less and save more to be able survive longer. 11 days.
That was all it took regime officials to realize of the problem they faced. The country is collapsing and Iran is now asking its citizens who help the regime survive. Let’s take a look at the problem faced by this regime. In the last days, everyone, including me, had focused on exports that Iran could not take out due to the blockade of the States United in the Gulf of Oman.
And rightly so exports, especially those of oil, were the way in which Revolutionary Guard earned their money and how he survived. That’s basically how they operated. They used that money to finance all the activities they carried out. Without However, there is another side to the blockade that people don’t pay much attention.
And that face is now coming back to destroy the Iranian economy. As you can see, the blocking is not treated just to prevent the ships from leaving Iranian ports. It is also about prevent boats in waters internationals enter the ports Iranians, basically to prevent resupply the revolutionary guard and other things that the Iranian regime needs.
In fact, do you remember the ship Tusca from the that we have been talking about in the last days? That ship was one that States United States seized just a few days ago after opening fire on his living room machines. Guess what, that ship was trying to enter Iran with weapons and some other loads that I brought from Southeast Asia, more specifically China.
The United States Army, take over the Tusca, showed that this Lockdown wasn’t just about making sure that Iran could not export oil. It’s also about stopping the goods that enter. More Specifically, it is about stopping the weapons and everything else. The Tusca was a cargo ship, which means probably transported cargo normal ones carried by ships.
However, at the same time, also had on board weapons that the Guard Revolutionary could use to rebuild its weapons program ballistics. From the perspective of the revolutionary guard was worth it take this risk, because the guard revolutionary really believes not They will survive if they cannot fight and that they need weapons and they need them desperately.
But understand, Iran is also dependent on exports a series of other goods and these goods They are very very important for the people Iranian. Last year, Iran imported approximately 60,000 million dollars in goods through their sea ports, basically from the ports it has. This means around 160 million of dollars every day.
To understand the real problem, we must analyze not only how much Iran imported, but exactly what did it matter? The cereal here, which is the second largest part, refers to basic grains such as wheat, corn and even rice. Then come the fats and oils. This is also part of the food and then they come seeds and grains. This too It is part of food.
In fact, approximately between 40% and 60% of Iran’s food needs They imported from other countries. Iran is not really a self-sufficient country or independent of the outside when It’s about the food supply. and guess what, that food is not there entering at this moment. This is a blocked topic in the main media and some social networks.
The Iranian president had to leave yesterday to national television to beg the Iranian people to, you know, stop eating so much and, of course, to reduce their electricity consumption. Listen to the people: “My dear, I am now ready and here on the stage I said that we have a simple request to consume. They bring themselves down in the power of energy. For now, we need the sacrifice of these loved ones. We don’t have it, but we need to control consumption. Instead of 10 lights in the house, if the light turns on, what’s wrong with this? Our infrastructure is under siege. They make people unhappy. And this satisfaction that exists now has become… If there is dissatisfaction, how can we stand in front of it? That we think in those fields. Do not allow people to be dissatisfied.”
Now they ask their citizens to stop eating and reduce their use of electricity to be able to survive. This is only the eleventh day of the blockade. This statement was made yesterday. The blockade had started on the 13th of April, 11 days. That’s all there is to it. Now then, the food situation in Iran was already quite chaotic, even before this war.
In fact, just at the beginning of the year, while the protests continued, when we analyzed the data on food prices in Iran, we saw that there was an inflation of 10% each month. You heard correctly, this was not a mispronunciation on my part or anything like that: 10% each month.
If we do a quick calculation, we realize that a monthly inflation of 10% basically means that food prices double every 7 months. This means that Iranians who are already struggling due to everything else that is happening—matters in which we will enter in a moment—now also have to worry about food exceeding their budgets, because salaries in Iran do not increase 10% a month and everyone needs food.
So they have to deal with food inflation. If the price of luxury consumer goods had increased, perhaps Iranians could simply not buy luxury products. However, food is something that everyone must buy and Iran was already fighting against food inflation that was at a very high level and due to this war, the situation has worsened even more.
The Revolutionary Guard has no one else to blame but itself, because the Revolutionary Guard was using these cargo ships that were supposed to bring medicine and food to attempt to smuggle weapons. And this is exactly the reason why the blockade has these boats as objectives. But, do you know what makes this situation even more shocking? The fact that Iran should have known that this was going to happen.
After the 12-day war last year, the Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei put this plan in motion and the plan was basically this: If another war breaks out, Iran will embark on a frenzy of economic terrorism. They will attack all the Gulf countries in the region, including Oman, which has no US bases and is not really an ally of the United States, because Iran wanted to apply this economic coercion strategy, which in my opinion is terrorism.
And part of this strategy was to block the Strait of Hormuz, because Iran realized how important it is for the oil market and therefore how important the Strait of Hormuz would be for the American public and of course for the President of the United States. Now then, if you take this strategy and think about it a little more deeply, if Iran is going to block the Strait of Hormuz, shouldn’t someone in the room planning the strategy have said: “Hey, if we block the strait, wouldn’t the United States respond by blocking Iranian ports?”
Because let’s be honest, it’s not such a crazy plan. We are simply taking Iran’s strategy and applying it against Iran. But not a single person in the room thought of that. And maybe they didn’t think that food provisions should be stored either. After all, the country depends heavily on imported food and guess what, everyone needs to eat even during a war. So maybe we should stock up. But nobody thought of this for a second. And when only 11 days have passed since the blockade began, Iran is running out of the most basic necessity that every human being has.
To be honest, this shouldn’t be a big surprise for me, because I know that this government has managed the water resources of Tehran, which makes just a few months they were talking about evacuating the capital, evacuate Tehran and transfer the capital to the south.
And again, the reason for this was not something natural. You know, it wasn’t because of a drought or something unexpected. The real reason behind the bad management was the Islamic regime itself. Here are more details. Iran is dealing with its worst water crisis in decades and authorities warn that if the drought continues, Tehran, where more than 10 million people live, it could soon become uninhabitable.
President Masud Pezeshkian warned that if it doesn’t rain by December, the government will have to start rationing water in Tehran. And even then it is possible that citizens have to evacuate the city. However, the water crisis in Iran is not only the result of the scarce precipitation. According to dozens of critics and water experts who have spoken to state media in the last days, decades of mismanagement, including excessive construction of dams, illegal well drilling and inefficient agricultural practices they have exhausted reserves. The bad management sparked protests due to water shortage both in 2018 and in 2021. The government cited several factors as the cause of the crisis, as the policies of previous governments, the climate change and excessive consumption. Water scarcity is putting pressure on the citizens who already fight under the weight of a collapsed economy.
If the government had the capacity, it would not have allowed things to happen at this point. You know, you shouldn’t have let things come to pass like this. What is he supposed to do? Government? The administrators are the same administrators. What do you expect them to do? They don’t even benefit from experts.
Even though Iran has said that he will not negotiate until the end of the American blockade, this crisis of food and electricity could be the reason for this. Yesterday we saw one Iranian delegation fly to Islamabad, Pakistan to reopen negotiations. They say one thing, but the regime is in reality too incapable to prepare for what they really want to do and that’s why they want to restart the negotiations.
According to a Pakistani official involved in these negotiations, the topics discussed by Iran were as follows. The Pakistani official told Axios that the meeting with Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran, Araqchi, would focus on the resumption of negotiations with the United States. Araqchi also stated: “Iran will not listen to American red lines regarding negotiations. Iran has no intention of surrendering in the face of American pressure, but is open to a rational and fair negotiation meeting.”
Yesterday we talked about having seen reports that special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner had flown to Islamabad one day after the meeting with Araqchi to organize a second summit between Iran and the United States. Unfortunately, it seems that the meeting with the Iranian Foreign Minister did not go as well as Iran was waiting, because just after the Iranian delegation left Pakistan, Trump made a statement and basically said that the United States would not travel back and forth to Pakistan to negotiate with Iran.
If Iran speaks seriously about the negotiation, simply they can pick up the phone and call. Listen, exclusive to Fox News: “President Trump just told our own reporter Ayesha Hosni that he has canceled his representative’s visit to Pakistan to maintain talks with Iran. Ayesha Hosni sent us this direct quote from the president: ‘A moment ago I told my boys who were getting ready to go and I said, “No, they’re not going to do a flight.” 18 hours to go there. All the cards are in our hands. You can call us at any moment they want, but they are not going to do 18-hour flights to sit and talk about nothing.'”
This is quite important. This occurs after the cancellation of the visit we planned that Vice President J.D. Vance would do at the beginning of the week to maintain conversations. This is the breaking news of our own reporter Ayesha Hosni and Alex Hogan reports directly from the White House with exclusive details.
“Alex, hi. Ayesha, big shake in the negotiations that we hoped would be carried out today. And this shows once again how delicate these negotiations are, despite extensive international efforts to establish everyone at the table at the last minute. Just like this morning, anything can collapse in an instant. What we were waiting to see was the American representatives Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who would lead that delegation today in Pakistan. As you know, President Donald Trump today told Fox News’ Ayesha Hosni who has canceled this visit. This decision came after the news that the Iranian Foreign Minister had left Pakistan. President Trump says once again that there is no point sending them on a flight of 18 hours and that Iran can call at any time.”
Immediately later, Trump made this statement on his Twitter: “I just canceled my representatives’ visit who went to Islamabad to meet with the Iranians. There is too much time lost traveling and this is very exhausting. By the way, for those who don’t know, travel from the United States to Pakistan is a 16-hour flight one way. You go there. After a flight like that, you probably need some time to rest. Then you have a meeting with the Iranians and then you fly back. That means another 16 hours. So obviously it’s a very long trip. Anyway, let’s continue with Trump’s statement: ‘In addition to this, there is a tremendous amount of infighting and confusion within the Iranian leadership. Nobody knows who is in charge, including Iranians themselves. Furthermore, all cards are in our hands. They have none. If they want to talk, all they have to do is call the United States.'”
In my opinion, this is much more than simple rhetoric. I don’t think Trump is just saying, “Hey, we don’t want to negotiate,” so that Iran eventually gets closer openly to negotiations. Because I repeat, this could be a strategy that Trump could use. He had done things similar to this in the past. However, this time it seems that the negotiations are really being canceled.
The reason I say this is because they had made preparations in Pakistan for a great meeting to take place between the United States and Iran in Islamabad. Now those preparations are being reversed. During the last two weeks, Islamabad was almost closed because there were rumors that the next meeting would be a great meeting in which they would reach an agreement or even they would sign documents. There was even the possibility that President Trump himself could attend.
And for this reason, Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, was under blockade. The shops were closed, the streets were closed to normal people. There was security personnel everywhere, there were barricades everywhere. Basically normal life had been stopped for the last two weeks. Apparently now those preparations are unraveling, the city is reopening, the security barriers are going down.
This is definitely not a good signal regarding the carrying out of the negotiations. In addition to this, there is a journalist from New York Post and I guess probably other American journalists who are still in Islamabad since the last meeting of negotiation that took place three weeks ago; they were probably anticipating that there would be another meeting.
That’s why they stayed in the city and some of these journalists were in direct contact with the White House and perhaps with President Trump himself. Apparently this morning President Trump texted one of the journalists saying: “Hey, can you come home?” probably hinting at the possibility that there is no other meeting soon.
It is a bit disconcerting that the President of the United States sends texting people about important news, but still it’s great news and hints at the possibility that negotiations are completely closed. This also means that the war could resume at any moment. Thank you for watching Military Chronicle.
