The US military was placed on high alert as the final details of a historic and astonishing peace agreement were being worked out behind closed doors. Just hours after intelligence uncovered a desperate Iranian plot to assassinate members of the president’s family in revenge for their fallen commander, the White House abruptly canceled military permits and prepared for an imminent campaign of massive bombings.
But instead of bombs falling, a shocking peace proposal leaked from within the regime, the Iranian regime. Iran is reportedly ready to hand over its highly enriched nuclear stockpile and open the Strait of Hormuz. However, critics within the United States warn that this is a trap. So today let’s analyze exactly what this new agreement is about, why the Iranians are celebrating, and why people inside the United States are actually warning about the peace.
Let’s start with how this weekend began, because Washington was screaming that something was about to happen before these peace terms were made public. First, President Trump skipped a family wedding to stay at the White House. People began to wonder what this meant. Then we had a report from CBS News that said members of the U.S. service had their leave canceled for Memorial Day weekend. It is likely that the United States was preparing for military action. We also received reports from the Pentagon that they were preparing attack packages to give the president more options in case there was no agreement. And then on Friday, news broke that Iran had been actively trying to assassinate members of Trump’s family. This was in retaliation for Trump’s killing of Cassem Soleimani, the Iranian commander whom Trump assassinated back in 2019. Listen to this report.
“It is alleged that Trump was the target of an assassination plot by a suspected terrorist who was a member of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The trained Iraqi national, who was arrested last week, allegedly promised to kill Ibanca and had a floor plan of his house in Florida. This was in response to the assassination of Iranian military chief Kassem Soleimani.”
A source who spoke to the New York Post claims that the suspect said the following.
“We need to kill Ivanca to burn down Trump’s house the way he burned down ours.”
According to the Justice Department, the terrorism suspect has been behind attacks against multiple American and Jewish targets. He was arrested and brought to the United States to face multiple terrorism-related charges, and one person is dead. So that’s the background. The world was bracing for new attacks. Instead, on Saturday, that is, yesterday, three Iranian officials basically confirmed that there is a deal that no one expects. And the details of this deal, well, no one has confirmed them either.
Now, the first thing we need to understand before we get into all these details is that every detail we hear is coming from Iran. This is important because Iran wants to control the narrative, and the White House is letting them because we ‘re not actually hearing anything from the White House. So, when you hear all these terms, remember, Iran has a history of lying, and they lie a lot. In fact, this channel alone has gotten millions of views on YouTube Shorts videos, simply by debunking Iranian lies, Iranian disinformation, and AI imagery that they publish to make it seem like they ‘re winning.
But here ‘s the thing. I would have simply ignored this, though. In fact, I ignore a lot of things the Iranian media publishes, but this time we have former cabinet officials, sitting senators, and other politicians speaking publicly about this agreement. So this leak definitely has some substance. We do n’t know if this is the full story or just a partial one, but let’s first break down the terms and then talk about what they mean. But nonetheless, let’s get into the details.
First of all, President Trump himself confirmed that negotiations are underway. On Truth Social, he stated that he has spoken with almost every leader in the Middle East and that a deal subject to completion has been largely negotiated between the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Now, this is something that could be significant. Trump has never before referred to Iran as the Islamic Republic of Iran. He would usually call them a terrorist regime or the Iranian regime. But this time, he seems to be using slightly more formal language. So perhaps an agreement is close, or perhaps Maybe this is just me overthinking it. I have a habit of doing that, but anyway, this is the first time Trump has used official language regarding Iran, so I thought it was worth pointing out.
Then, after this statement, both the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal confirmed that Gulf leaders—more specifically, leaders from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE—were pressing Washington to sign some kind of agreement because they don’t want to restart the war. The Gulf has just suffered two months of intercepted missiles, drone attacks on its nuclear facilities, and, of course, the burning of its oil infrastructure. So, they want to stop the bleeding and they want the Strait of Hormuz reopened. So let’s get into the details of this agreement they’re pushing for. Here are the details. Take a look.
According to three Iranian officials, Iran has agreed to a memorandum of understanding that would halt all fighting, including in Lebanon, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. In return, the US naval blockade will be lifted, and commercial traffic will flow freely. Iran has also It was agreed that a transit fee would not be charged, and most importantly, the nuclear issue—the main reason this war started—will be postponed to follow-up negotiations to be held within 30 to 60 days of the signing of this memorandum. And on top of all this, Iran says they will get $25 billion in frozen Iranian assets released to the Islamic Republic after this agreement.
So those are the conditions Iran says the agreement consists of. And if this is true, it’s going to be quite embarrassing, because think about it, the only thing Iran is really giving up is the Strait of Hormus. They’ll reopen it. They’ll stop their terrorist attacks. And in return, Iran gets sanctions relief. They also get $25 billion. And the best part is, they don’t really have to negotiate any nuclear issues right now. Now, of course, this is coming from Iran, so it doesn’t really mean much, but the important thing here is that Iranian officials started to to celebrate very quickly and very publicly. Take a look.
The spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry released this statement, and this was actually the only statement we received from an official on Saturday. The post says:
“In the Roman mind, Rome was the undisputed center of the world. However, the Iranians shattered that illusion when Marcus Julius Philippus marched east against Persia. The campaign did not result in a Roman victory; it ended in a peace established on Sasanian terms. The emperor had to accept that.”
I suppose this was his indirect way of saying that a peace agreement is near, but this is what ‘s interesting. The image speaks of something completely different. The image actually refers to a war that took place in 2060 AD, while the text refers to a war that took place approximately 16 years earlier. Now, this is important because the image speaks of the defeat of Iran’s adversary, while the text speaks of a mere negotiated agreement. So Iran is sending mixed messages, basically saying they won the war, when in reality that couldn’t be further from the truth.
But before we go into more details from the US side, let’s see how some people reacted to this. Take a look at Mike Pompeo. He is the former Secretary of State. He stated very publicly:
“If these terms are real, the United States should restart the war immediately. It makes no sense to give up everything the United States has achieved so far.”
Then we had Senator Roger Wickers. He is the senator for armed services and called this agreement a disaster that would undo everything that has been achieved during Operation Epic Fury. Then we also had Senator Lindsey Gram saying the same thing, and Senator Ted Cruz repeating the same message. There are two things to keep in mind here. This is the main reason why I am sharing with you the details that come from Iran, because this could actually be Iranian propaganda. But here in the United States we have some high-ranking officials who take this agreement very seriously and may try to publicly pressure the administration not to accept something like this.
The second point to consider here is that it is likely that all these senators and other former officials do not have the real details. They are based on the same information that you had. They are based on the same reports that you and I are seeing. Therefore, there is a good chance that the actual details are very different from what we are reading, but I thought it was important to share it.
Now, after I started recording this video, we actually got more details from the United States. Take a look. Someone from the White House, in fact, spoke anonymously to the New York Times, and that is the same outlet that initially published the Iranian conditions of this agreement. According to this report, two US officials confirmed that one element of the proposed agreement is Iran’s apparent commitment to give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. The official said:
“The proposal does not precisely state how Iran will relinquish the uranium, but details will be deferred for follow-up talks later; however, a general written commitment that Iran agrees to hand over the uranium is reportedly included in the framework.”
Now, it’s easy to guess why the Iranians don’t want this detail to be made public. Because the last time they were close to accepting something similar, I think it was a month ago, there were protests in Teeran led by forces and supporters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The people who support the regime did not want Iran to give up uranium. Therefore, it makes sense that if they agree to something like that, they would want to keep it a secret.
But that’s pretty much the whole story. Iran publicly states that the uranium issue is something that will be discussed later. However, US officials say Iran has already committed to giving up uranium. However, it is clear that both things cannot be true. Someone has to be lying, and depending on who is lying, this could have major implications. If Iran is lying just to appear stronger to its domestic audience, well, that’s manageable and the United States probably won’t care at all. The agreement is likely to work.
But if U.S. officials try to promote an agreement that is n’t actually as solid as they claim, this will have major implications not only domestically because the midterm elections are approaching, but also internationally, because many allies who depend on the United States will likely engage in heated debates about what the United States is doing right now. And as if all of this wasn’t bad and confusing enough, we also have a statement from Pakistan’s prime minister, and that statement basically says:
“Hey, there’s no agreement so far.”
And it’s important to remember that Pakistan is the main mediator between Iran and the United States. And there are many people who criticize Pakistan for failing as a mediator. But remember, guys, mediation is a very difficult job. The United States tried to mediate a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia, but we got nowhere. So even if Pakistan fails to ensure the success of these negotiations, it was expected. The only thing the United States does not want is for Pakistan to act as an Iranian agent, as Oman did before this war began. So that would be worse than if Pakistan actually failed in the negotiations, but still, let’s take a look at this statement:
“I commend President Trump for his extraordinary efforts to achieve peace and for having a very useful and productive phone call today. Field Marshal Sied Assim Munir represented Pakistan in the call and greatly appreciated their tireless efforts. The discussions provided a useful opportunity to exchange views on the current regional situation and how to advance ongoing peace efforts to achieve lasting peace in the region. Pakistan will continue its peace efforts with the utmost sincerity and looks forward to hosting the next round of talks very soon.”
Reading a statement like that, and of course reading other statements that Pakistan has published, I sometimes get the feeling that Pakistan is more focused on having some kind of peace talks in Islamabad, probably because they love all the attention. The last time we had a peace talk or a peace meeting in Islamabad, the whole world was watching the city. That’s why they want this to happen again. But still, that’s not a big problem as long as they succeed.
To understand why Iran is behaving the way it is right now, we need to step back and look at how Iran got to where it is today. This does not mean only going back to 1979, when the Islamic Revolution took place. In fact, we have to go back to the 19th century, when the Qajar dynasty ruled Iran, and see how the decisions that the ruling class made then continue to affect Iran today. And guess what, that’s exactly what we’re doing in our multi-part podcast that was released today.
However, the events of the last 48 hours clearly reveal how fragile and perhaps even deceptive this supposed peace process is, because a serious disconnect has emerged between what is happening on the ground and what is being discussed at the negotiating table. While diplomatic language softens in Washington, military activity in the region is gaining momentum. First, the most recent information from the US Department of Defense shows that the US military presence in the Middle East has not been reduced, but rather that the alert level is maintained at critical bases. Specifically, it is reported that naval elements deployed in the Gulf are reinforcing their positions instead of withdrawing and that air defense systems remain active.
This means that despite a possible agreement, Washington has removed the military option against Iran from the table. On the other hand, the signals coming from Iran are also contradictory. While the Teeran government continues to deliver victory messages to the public, there is still no concrete evidence that the proxy forces on the ground have been completely stopped. Conversely, low-intensity threats and activity against some US bases in the region are reported to continue. This shows that Iran is, on the one hand, negotiating, and on the other hand, continues to maintain its pressure tactics.
One of the most critical events took place at the Strait of Hormuz, although the Iranian side claims to be willing to open the strait. Data on international maritime traffic reveals that there is still cautious movement in the region. It is observed that some commercial vessels have changed their routes and that insurance costs remain high. In other words, the market is looking at the risk, not the statements, and the risk has not yet disappeared.
In Washington’s domestic politics, this process is becoming an increasingly heated debate. The Republican wing, in particular, argues that the government is making too many concessions to Iran, while some Democratic circles express that even a possible agreement will not be permanent. This shows that the United States does not fully trust this agreement, not even internally. And this raises a much bigger question on the international stage. If even Washington doesn’t fully believe in this process, how can the allies trust it?
The picture that emerges amidst all these developments is quite clear. This is not a peace process, but rather a strategic maneuver against time. Iran wants to ease economic pressure and take a breather. The United States, for its part, is looking for ways to reduce tensions without losing control. However, as both sides are negotiating and preparing for war at the same time, this balance is extremely fragile. And perhaps the most critical question is this. If this agreement is truly going to bring peace, why do both sides continue to act as if they are ready for war? The answer to this question lies hidden in the events that will take place in the coming days, because this process will either initiate a new balance in the Middle East or go down in ATC history as one of the greatest missed opportunities.
