In Israel, there is an atmosphere of war alert. Here in the country, there is a feeling that any moment now, the war could return. And today, I want to ask, is the president of the United States bluffing in the game? Are we heading towards a strike, or is everything about to stop with an agreement signed? Both you and I are probably a little tired of this, but here in Israel, it is extremely frustrating.
“So now I will bring you the whole truth of what is happening in the loudest ceasefire, one that affects the daily lives of all of us. And the engines are warming up. Just last night, Trump and Netanyahu held a long and dramatic phone call. All of this is happening in the shadow of the possibility that the fighting may resume.”
“And like every day recently, the Revolutionary Guards are sending another threat. If the attacks resume, the war will spread beyond the Middle East. The Emirates are preparing for the scenario of another confrontation with Iran. And while, according to our understanding, Trump is determined to return and strike Iran, is it possible that the American Congress will manage to stop him? I am Shashani and tonight, Yayu Pinto is on vacation.”
“But don’t worry, he will be back on Sunday. So for everyone who was worried, he is traveling around beautiful Israel with his family. And we are on boots on the ground bringing you the whole truth about what is happening in Israel and also the whole truth of what is happening in our neighborhood, the Middle East. Today is May 20th.”
“Stay with us because Benny Sabti will join us, an Iran expert who knows the language, the culture, and the psychology of the regime from the inside. Now, it is worth staying because with him, we will try to understand what is really happening in Tehran and what Iran’s next move will be against Israel and the United States.”
“Look, let us put the fact that it is clear to all of us on the table in the Middle East today. We need to look less at the statements and more at the iron moving on the ground. If Trump is bluffing, it is a bluff backed by two aircraft carriers, by destroyers, by long-range missiles, and refueling aircraft that are already within operational range.”
“This is not the deployment of a ground invasion or regime change. This is a deployment that fits exactly with a short, sharp, and painful punitive strike against the revolutionary guards, the missile system, or the nuclear sites. And that is why the American flexibility in the negotiations does not necessarily move a strike farther away.”
“It may be the final stage before Washington says, ‘We gave them a chance. Now we speak with fire.’ Since the beginning of the ceasefire, Iran has not behaved like a country that wants calm, but like someone trying to turn the entire Gulf into a hostage. They have hijacked ships. They fired UAVs towards shipping lanes, attacked the Emirates, threatened Saudi Arabia, scattered mines in the Strait of Hormuz, and then even tried to dictate to the world where ships are allowed to sail and how much they must pay for it.”
“In other words, while everyone is talking about diplomacy, Tehran is running a war of extortion. A little maritime terror, a little fire through proxies, a little threat against global energy. And that is why the question is not why Iran would be attacked, but why anyone would bow down to it now when it is exposed under pressure and the entire region already understands that it is possible to hit it hard.”
“In response, as usual, more threats come from the revolutionary guards in Iran. If the aggression against Iran is repeated, the promised regional war will this time spread beyond the borders of the region. We are almost 3 months into the war and right now it feels like Tehran has managed to prevent a quick decision by the United States and Israel by disrupting the strait, threatening energy facilities in the Gulf and turning the shipping route into a bargaining chip.”
“Now, I know the news feels like a lot like an endless loop right now, but hold on tight because every small thing that happens in our neighborhood, the Middle East, affects the entire world. Let us get started. Let us move to what is actually new in the news. During the night, US President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu held a phone call that was described as long and dramatic.”
“Behind the scenes, there is growing concern in Washington. And this is where Russia enters the picture. Not as an innocent mediator, but as someone trying to keep Iran standing on its feet against American pressure. According to reports in the west, Moscow has already passed information to Tehran that could help identify the movement of American forces in the region, ships, bases, and aircraft.”
“In other words, when Washington brings air and naval power closer to the Gulf, the Russians are signaling to the Iranians, you are not alone, and we know where the Americans are operating. This does not mean that Russia wants a direct war with the United States, but it does mean that it is trying to make every American strike much more dangerous, expensive, and complicated.”
“So, it is pretty clear that while the war in Iran continues to shake the energy markets, concern is also growing in Washington about Chinese Russian assistance to Tehran. But according to what Trump said, President Xi promised that China would not arm Iran. However, today Putin and Xi met in Beijing as a global energy market once again enters a sensitive situation.”
“The war against Iran and the damage to supply through the Strait of Hormuz are bringing back to the center one of the largest and most stuck projects in Russia-China relations, the giant gas project between Moscow and Beijing. But despite the pressure on the energy market and Russia’s urgent need for an alternative market to Europe, China continues to pressure the price and is not rushing to close a deal.”
“Don’t forget that the American blockade on Iran continues. Overnight, the United States military took control of an oil tanker connected to Iran in the Indian Ocean. Apparently, more than 1 million barrels of crude oil were loaded onto it in Kharg Island. Now, right now, the severe economic tension has pushed gasoline prices in the United States to an average of $4.5 per gallon.”
“And inside Iran, some citizens are learning how to use rifles to repel the United States. Revolutionary Guard soldiers held weapons training workshops for Iranian civilians in an attempt to prepare the public for the possibility of a return to fighting. The other part of the population is collapsing under the pressure and violence of the regime.”
“We will go into all the details right after this. So there is a lot ahead of us. Let us dive in. I am Shashani with me as Pinto and we are boots on the ground bringing you the whole truth of what is happening in Israel and the war against the revolutionary guards in Iran, the head of the axis of evil in the Middle East.”
“Now we need to understand Trump’s central pressure point. It is not only the strike. It is also the possibility of not striking and continuing to choke Iran slowly day after day without paying too high an American price. Because while everyone is waiting to see whether the planes will take off, the naval blockade is already working, Iran is losing oil revenue, struggling to bring in foreign currency, struggling to export, struggling to import, and beginning to feel that time is not working in its favor.”
“It sounds less dramatic than an air strike. But sometimes in the Middle East, the quieter thing is the thing that hurts most. The numbers here matter. According to economic estimates, Iran is losing hundreds of millions of dollars every day that its exports remain blocked. It has already been hit by the loss of oil exports, by damage to steel plants, by damage to petrochemicals facilities, and by the growing fear among traders and countries of continuing to work with it.”
“Its currency reserves are truly approaching levels that are enough only for weeks of critical imports. This is the problem of a state beginning to suffocate. This is exactly where Trump can look at the Iranians and say, ‘Why rush? Why spend more expensive munitions? Why open another front? Why take the risk of American casualties if every passing day damages the Iranian regime more deeply from within?’ But here is also the risk.”
“Because an economically suffocated regime does not always become softer. Sometimes it becomes more dangerous. The revolutionary guards know that if the blockade continues for a long time, it will not only be the Iranian public that begins to boil. Some of the regime’s own supporters, workers in military industries, steel, petrochemical, government, and everyone who lives off the system will also begin asking what all of this is for.”
“That is why Tehran is trying to turn the blockade from an American story into a global story. They do not want to suffocate alone. They want China to feel the price, Europe to feel the price, the Gulf States to feel the price. An American citizen at a gas station to ask why he is paying so much more.”
“That is why Hormuz has become a weapon. Not only a way to close a maritime route, but a way to turn every tanker, every insurance company, every port, and every government into part of the crisis. When the United States seizes an Iranian tanker far from Iran’s coast in the Indian Ocean, for instance, with more than 1 million barrels of crude oil, the message is clear.”
“The blockade does not remain only in the strait. It follows Iran’s shadow fleet far from home. And here we need to pay attention to something else. The seizure of a tanker does not look like a bombing. There is no big explosion, no smoke, no dramatic image of a fighter jet. But for Iran, it is a direct blow to the pocket.”
“It is a blow to its ability to bypass sanctions. It is a blow to the network of old ships, hidden routes, ship-to-ship transfers, and economy that lives in the gray zone. At the same time, the Emirates understands that it is sitting exactly on the line between diplomacy and war. On the one hand, Abu Dhabi, Riyadh, and Doha asked Trump to stop the strike and give talks another chance.”
“On the other hand, those same leaders know that if Iran comes out of the story without being truly harmed, it will return to them later with an open account. Their fear is not theoretical. A drone attack towards a civilian Balaka nuclear power plant, which according to the Emirates came from Iraqi territory, is a severe warning sign.”
“If pro-Iranian militias can threaten facilities like that, then desalination facilities, ports, oil fields, and refineries can also be in the crosshairs in the next round. That is exactly the Emirates’ increasing coordination with Israel and CENTCOM. Not necessarily in order to run towards war, but in order to not be caught unprepared if war comes their way.”
“Air defense, intelligence, maritime coordination, and the ability to detect launches early from Iraq, Yemen, or Iran. All of these are now part of the picture. That brings us back to the big question. Is the negotiation really moving forward, or is Iran simply buying time? The Egyptians are talking about the possibility of a memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran, a document that would set principles for what comes next.”
“It sounds good on paper, but in the Middle East, paper does not stop missiles. Paper does not remove mines from the water. Paper does not dismantle mobile launchers. And paper does not guarantee that Lebanon will stop rebuilding its network. The Egyptian demand for freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz is a critical condition. Without it, any regional arrangement will be hollow.”
“Because if Iran continues to hold Hormuz as a card, it is essentially telling the world maybe we sign something, but our hand is still on the tap of energy.”
“And meanwhile, NATO finds itself facing a dilemma it tried to avoid. If Hormuz does not open and if prices in Europe continue to rise, can the alliance remain on the sidelines? On the one hand, European countries do not want to look as if they are joining Trump and Israel’s war against Iran. On the other hand, when the crisis reaches electricity bills, fuel prices, and factories in Europe, the separation between a regional war and a global economic crisis begins to break down.”
“NATO’s problem is that not all countries see Iran the same way. Some countries want to keep waiting. Some countries are prepared to provide logistical support quietly, and some countries fear that every escort of a commercial ship could turn within minutes into a confrontation with Revolutionary Guard boats, drones, mines, or anti-ship missiles.”
“That is why the next NATO summit could become a test moment. If the strait remains blocked or dangerous, the alliance will have to choose between two risks: not acting and looking weak or acting and risking a more direct entry into the war. At the same time, Russia and China are playing a different game.”
“Putin and Xi met in Beijing and the war in Iran brought the giant Power of Siberia 2 gas project back to the table. This is a pipeline meant to carry gas from Russia to China through Mongolia. For Moscow, it is a way to find an alternative market after Europe closed the door. For China, it is a way to receive land-based energy that does not depend on tankers, maritime insurance, Hormuz, or the American Navy. But China is not rushing.”
“It knows Russia needs the deal more than it does. It is pressing on the price, checking the alternatives, and looking at the Middle East, not only through ideology, but through supply. If Hormuz is burning, a land pipeline from Russia suddenly looks much more interesting. At the same time, Trump says Xi promised him that China will not arm Iran.”
“That is an important statement. But not everyone in Washington is calm because even if China is not sending weapons directly and even if Russia is not sending soldiers, knowledge, intelligence, spare parts, bypass systems, and economic assistance can be enough to keep Tehran on its feet just a little longer. And inside Iran, the regime is trying to show that it has not broken.”
“The revolutionary guards are threatening that if the strikes return, the war will expand beyond the borders of the region. They say they have not used all their capabilities. They threaten to strike places the enemies do not expect. This is not only a military threat. It is also an internal performance. They need to show the Iranian people that the regime is still strong.”
“But the fact that they are teaching civilians to use rifles in central Tehran tells another story. A regime that is confident in itself does not need to arm civilians with Kalashnikovs in the streets and tell them to prepare for an American invasion. This is an attempt to create unity by force to turn fear into patriotism and to remind every citizen that the war is not over even if there are currently no explosions above their heads.”
“In Israel, all of this is being watched with the understanding that a decision will not come through one sentence from Trump or one statement from Tehran. It will come through a combination of economic pressure, of military readiness, of diplomatic isolation, and damage to Iran’s ability to rebuild itself. If there is a strike, we will not only be checking a box, it will need to change the balance.”
“Lebanon is also watching every moment. Reports identified with Hezbollah are already trying to describe what an Israeli opening blow would look like if the war with Iran resumes. Assassinations, strikes against energy infrastructure, attacks on military industries, and possibly special operations against sensitive targets.”
“This must be taken carefully because it is also part of psychological warfare. But the very fact that they speak this way shows that they understand the Lebanese arena is not disconnected from Iran. That is exactly the point. If Iran sets the Gulf on fire, Lebanon will not remain quiet. If Hezbollah tries to exploit the moment, Israel will not be able to wait.”
“And if Hamas tries to bring itself back to the center through kidnappings or escalation in Gaza, the South will also re-enter the equation. That is why this moment is so dangerous. This is not only a question of whether Trump will strike or not. This is a question of whether economic pressure will be sufficient to bend Iran before Iran tries to break the pressure through fire.”
“And now before the prayer, we want to move to a special conversation with Benny Sabti. Benny is an Iran researcher, was born in Iran, immigrated to Israel, and knows the regime from inside the language, the culture, the media environment, and the psychology of decision-making in Tehran. After everything we have described now, the blockade, Hormuz, the Emirates, Trump, Russia, and China, the important question is how all of this looks from inside Tehran’s mind.”
“So now we go to the interview with Benny Sabti. Right after that, we will be back to pray for the people of Israel. Okay, Benny, let us dive straight into it. I think the topic that I am most interested in and maybe our viewers are also most interested to understand is what is really happening inside Iran? What is happening with the regime? Is there actually a leader in Iran that is leading or is there a lot of internal fighting in Iran right now? Thank you for having me here and thank you for this important question because things are not as they are shown in TV shows or news from inside Iran towards the rest of the world. The Iranian regime today is not so stable. Not just because of the war or the coming war, but because of their behavior. These generals that took over the regime, they are much more fanatic, much more radical than the last leader Khamenei the father and also his son that took the leadership.”
“He is a friend of IRGC generals. He does not care about the needs of the people. Of course, not caring about any kind of good relationship with the world, maybe just with China or Russia or other not so positive countries and not so democratic of course countries. So they are bringing this regime to a kind of an end by themselves.”
“They are not making the people satisfied. The prices are going higher and higher every day. The situation inside Iran around the issues of security even the thieves and stealing from houses that they were heard in the war. This is a phenomenon that is going on from the war and it is not because of us or Israel. It is because of their kind of behaving. They do not care about the people. They do not care about their needs. There is no water again in Iran or not so much food. Iran is an importer country. They import anything. They just have only oil to sell and buy anything from outside. Even saffron is not Iranian anymore.”
“So if they do not care about the people and they neglect them, they can be brought down in a very few, maybe a few months or maybe not more than a year because they think only about themselves becoming stronger and stronger in military aspects and does not care about 90 million people. It is not a good thing to do as a regime.”
“So what are you saying, Benny? You are saying that regardless of what the US does, regardless of what Trump tweets tomorrow morning, one way or another, the Iranian regime is already doomed. Is that what you are saying?”
“Of course. The first war against the Iran regime in June and the second one, they pushed them towards that place of falling. You know, for example, there was a secret poll inside Iran by the regime in October or November after the first war by Israel and US against Iran. Of course, we pushed them to that place, but the regime itself pushed itself to that place. The poll said, and it is a real poll. It is a secret poll by the regime. It is not on internet or something, but it was accidentally revealed to the media.”
“It says that 92% of the Iranians hate the regime. They are not satisfied from the regime. In another polls, they even love Jews and love Israel. And we see all their comments toward US or toward Israel. They want us to come and fight the regime. It is not because Benny has a wishful thinking. No, it is Iranians saying that.”
“So 92% of Iranians of 90 million people, it is a huge number. We saw that in the protests in December and January. There were more and more millions. It never happened before. Today it is a very hard thing to do because they were so massacred and so frightened now. But maybe if President Trump gives them some hope and really comes for them, not only for the nuclear issue, not only for the missile issue, but for freeing Iran people, all of us, we will have a better place and better life here in Middle East and maybe all over the world because Iran regime has many hands also in US, in Europe, by Islamic centers, by demonstrations against Israel or against us, by this slogan of ‘Free Palestine.’ But many things happened in that place of under that slogan of ‘Free Palestine.’ So if we give some strength to the Iranian people, they cannot do it by themselves.”
“Who is actually leading Iran right now? And I think this has been a question that has come up a lot where you will see someone go to the negotiations and then someone else back at home in Iran will tweet or immediately respond and say, ‘No, no, do not listen to the foreign minister. He does not know what he is talking about. Do not listen to whoever it is. He does not know what he is talking about; he is not the president.’ Who is actually making the shots behind the scenes? I have heard these vague statements about it is someone in the revolutionary guards, but we do not know who it is. What is really going on as far as the leadership goes in Iran?”
“You are absolutely right and it is a very exact showing of the reality now in the regime. There is no one guy that you can put your finger on and say this is the Iranian leader. The Iranian leader, the son of the last leader Mojtaba, he is wounded as as we know. He is in a very bad shape. Maybe he lost some parts of his body, but he mentally he is functioning and all of his consultants are IRGC generals. This is a huge problem. Nobody is thinking about the country. It is kind of what happened to Hamas. They are all part of the military parts of Hamas and the other parts are outside of Gaza Strip. This is exactly what is happening with the Iranian regime. All of them are fanatic, are IRGC generals. They care only about fighting, stealing the billions of dollars of the oil money or whatever remained in Iran. There is no one figure that is deciding. They are so afraid from each other all these generals that they have to sit all the time in a council in a security council as they name it.”
“And they also brought back some 80-year-old generals and figures from, you know, from somewhere, from their houses because they do not have enough people, they do not have enough generals. Israel and US took out many of them and they were very experienced and there today there are not so many experienced generals in IRGC. So there is a mess actually in this Iranian regime. They have to sit together and just as you said before, they just know to say no. They do not say yes. Pay attention. Foreign Ministry of Iran wants to go now maybe to New York. No. Having conversation and negotiations with us. No, they do not know how to say yes. They do not know how to compromise. This is the thing that says to me that all these kind of negotiations and there is no real negotiations, maybe exchanging letters or something by Pakistanis, it goes nowhere. And so the sooner we solve the Iranian issue, it is better.”
“Well, what happens next then? I mean, if I follow your line of thought, which I think is very accurate. You obviously you speak the language, you understand what they are really saying to each other. If they cannot make a decision, if they cannot actually negotiate, which is something even President Trump and his team have alluded to several times, saying, ‘We are not sure who is really making the shots or calling the shots in Iran.’ If that is the case, then an agreement would be meaningless, even if one was reached, and essentially it means we are going to just keep living in a moment of tension until something falls apart in Iran. I mean, am I misunderstanding you? Is that where this is going?”
“No, exactly. I agree to that. And sooner or later I think the only solution for Iranian regime and changing it to a better place is taking out all these few, very few generals of IRGC and maybe this leader that remained there Mojtaba and there are some moderate and normal figures, maybe they are old also from the Iranian regime or maybe the best option is bringing back some of the opposition outside of Iran. Maybe the crown prince, maybe a coalition of oppositions from outside. But I have another thing also to say about that. Those real moderate figures inside Iran, they can be so frightened and so desire have the desire to stay alive that they can also leave and have some coalition with this outsiders the opposition that comes back maybe from outside. There are some Iranian figures even from regime maybe they were there 20 years ago 25 years ago, those who made the movement of 2009 the green movement, they also do not want this regime as it is today or maybe as it was in this last five years because this fanatic regime did not come out in one night only when the father was gone no it was there for six, seven years. You have to re-educate to bring people to be to that place. So they were in that place in that fanatic and radical place. They had their hubris especially after October 7th. They had this dream that they thought that it is coming to be truth. Israel will be eliminated. US is very weak. So we will be the masters of Middle East and who knows maybe master of the world together with China and Russia. If we take out those who still are having these dreams, there are some other powers and they can make Iran better. Not so democratic in the first level, but in the short range we can get rid of all these elements of fanatic and radical places not helping and Hamas, not making more missiles and cities of missiles and of course not nuclear program. I think what you are saying is good news to my ears at least.”
“Because the fear in many people’s mind, myself included, was when the Ayatollah regime, when the IRGC falls in Iran, what if it goes into the path of Libya, the path of Iraq, of infighting and civil war that could last in a country of that size with that size of minorities and ethnic tensions. You could look at decades of infighting. You are saying there is enough of an internal and external opposition or stability in the structures that they would be able to rebuild in the day after as in we would see an initial collapse and then someone would still be strong enough within the regime to gather up a coalition other forces and form some kind of government that would be let us call it an interim solution until whatever formalizes later on. Is that what you are saying?”
“Yes. You know, I think those who make us afraid of revealing Iran and make it free, those are maybe they have some cooperation with the regime. They do not want this regime to be gone. So they write about these clashes inside Iran and fights of minorities, but no, Iranian minorities do not want to get rid of Iran. They want to be part of Iran. The Kurds, the Baluchis, they do not want to fight each other. Also they have some autonomic and ethnic demands like learning their languages or writing by their letters or very small thing, you know, it is not about bringing Iran down as a country they want it united and seven of these ethnic parties even they declared loyalty to the crown prince a few months ago in that in those days of the clashes and the protests on January. It was amazing. I had the proof that they do not want to make Iran apart. So if we have just some hope to bring to them and of course declare to them that we also do not want Iran to be a part so we can help them with that bringing the normal opposition from outside or turning to the normal moderate people inside Iran. I am not dreaming, you know, I can compromise about some things but not about the existence of Israel or making missile programs so bad that they can hurt also Europe or even USA. This regime has this dream. They have that plan to have 10,000 kilometers missiles to hit New York. I do not want them. I want some guys that want to talk to us or even to Israel. So the ethnic groups are with us in that place and there will not be any fights inside Iran. So we can make it better.”
“I have a question for you. Let us say President Trump or someone from his war cabinet was watching this. What would your recommendation to them be? Because the way they present things, the way the conversation has been going, it is very black and white. Give in and negotiate or, you know, or fire and brimstone will come down on you. It seems like you have a longer term understanding or perception of where this is going. What would your recommendation to them be? Let us say they call right now and they say, as President Trump does sometimes to television shows, and he says, ‘Benny, tell me what we need to do tomorrow and next month as it relates to the Iranians.’ What would your advice be?”
“Wow. I am very flattered and I really hope that he watches this show someday.”
“I hope so in a few days even. And I have a funny thing to say about that. I was in a summit in Miami and Wkov was there the messenger of the president and I actually caught him in hands and I told him exactly these things in a very few words. I did not have so many minutes but I said it this regime is a liar. These are worse than it was before. Do not negotiate.”
